As the saying goes, history may not repeat itself, but it sure rhymes. As Bangladesh hurtles towards a perfect storm of its own making, one cannot help but draw comparisons between two infamous annus horribilis in Bangladeshi history: 1954 for the All-India Muslim League (ML), and 2024 for the Awami League (AL). Seventy years apart, these behemoths of Bangladeshi politics have been linked by similar origins (both were movements fighting for liberation), as well as similar habits of haughtiness, hubris, and political entitlement divorced from the grassroots.

Origins in Movements; Corruption in Power

The Muslim League of Muhammad Ali Jinnah rode on emotion. It appealed to Muslim identity, wrested power from the British, and attained independence by galvanizing religious fervor across the Indian subcontinent. In the 1946 elections, it won 114 out of 120 seats in Bengal on the back of fanatic support.

Similarly, Awami League is irrevocably tied to the legacy of 1971 and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The League was synonymous with Bengali nationalism and secular resistance during its formative years, and maintained hegemony for years after independence under Mujib’s leadership. Authoritarianism is almost inevitable when those who fight oppressive regimes find power themselves.

Muslim League leaders became increasingly afflicted with what is called “politics of entitlement” after Pakistan became independent. They had liberated (East) Pakistan, so they believed Pakistan belonged to them. Dissent was tantamount to treason; criticism was seen as anti-state. Their messianic view of politics created psychological distance from those who had elected them.

Fast forward to 2024. Awami League has followed suit, proclaiming its indispensability to govern the country as the guardians of liberation. They have milked their liberation war narrative for all its worth and now punish dissent by branding it “anti-national”, “Islamist/extremist”, or even imaginary conspiracies by foreign powers. Both ML and AL blurred the lines between the party and the state.

Belief in the “No Alternative” Theory

Both regimes fell prey to the fallacy that there was no alternative to their leadership. In the early 1950s, Nurul Amin and others like him considered themselves the sole shepherds fit to lead Pakistan’s eastern wing; after all, they were entrenched in civil service and governmental agencies.

Fast forward to 2024. Has anyone in the Awami League’s leadership bothered to look beyond their borders? Has anyone worried that maybe, just maybe, they are not indispensable? The “no alternative” mindset led governments to monopolize power and weaken democratic institutions. When those in power believe that their loss would spell disaster for the country, they go to any lengths to stay in office.

As they say, where there’s a void, something will fill it. Opposition leaders from different parties united against the Muslim League in 1954 and won. We have already seen youth-led protests and creative hartals emerge as the AL-BNP binary failed the people of Bangladesh.

Echoes of History: Lessons from the Decline of the Muslim League for the Awami League

Historical Parallels: Repression and Resistance

In both 1954 and 2024, heavy-handed tactics contributed to the decline of dominant political parties. The Muslim League’s brutal crackdown on the Language Movement in 1952 created martyrs and galvanized public resentment. Similarly, restrictions on fundamental rights and internet blackouts in 2024 contributed to a perceived climate of fear. The final blow came on August 5, 2024, and hell broke loose.

In the aftermath of the tragic and brutal crackdown of the police on the Language Movement of 1952, the Muslim League used every tactic from coercion to repression and propaganda to install Urdu as the state language. Students built resistance because of this tyranny, which continued till the fall of the Muslim League in the 1954 General Election. Similarly, in 2024, attempts by authorities to stifle voices through digital blackouts and arrests have only created, rather than contained, public anger. While the Awami League may have postponed protests out of fear, it could not prevent the undercurrent of dissent from erupting.

Economic Disconnect: Performance Matters

Another critical reason for the Muslim League’s defeat was its poor performance on economic issues. At the time of the 1954 election, there were shortages of salt and food, and inflation was high. People do not vote for a party’s past achievements. They vote based on their ability to feed and provide for their families.

While the Awami League has presided over infrastructure growth and debt reduction, critics pointed to rising inflation, inequality, and a syndicate-controlled economy. While the government claimed growth, many Bangladeshis felt they were left behind. Will the people forgive rising prices and wealth gaps because of the League’s role in the 1971 liberation war?

Sacred Symbols: Stop Invoking Mujib!

Once you invoke Mujib or independence, you cannot take it back or control the narrative. It is dangerous for a ruling party to weaponize sacred symbols. Everyone is entitled to their political beliefs, but when you persecute your political opponents under the guise of secularism or Bengali nationalism, you lose all moral high ground. The Muslim League used Islam as a political cudgel in the 1950s. The Awami League has done the same with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

The End and the Beginning

As the dust settled after the 1954 election results were announced, the Muslim League struggled to find its footing. Some leaders left for their homeland or went into hiding. By 1958, many within the party had become politically irrelevant. Facing a similar crossroads, the Awami League can learn from history and plan to chart a new course if it wants to return to politics.

Like the Muslim League, the Awami League faces an uncertain future. Already, party leaders are seeing fractures within the party and calls for leadership change from within. While some leaders may need to look for pastures abroad, others will be held accountable by the judiciary. Many grassroots activists are already confused about what has happened.

However, one thing we’ve learned from history is that downfall is not permanent. Things can and will get better. What matters is the course of action we take now.

Questions linger about the Awami League’s future. Will they take responsibility for their mistakes and reconnect with the grassroots? Only time will tell. But we can learn from the mistakes of the past. Political parties don’t last forever.