For almost 40 years, the Teesta River has been a thorn in the side of Bangladesh-India relations. For the past 15 years, however, it became part of an implicit political bargain: Sheikh Hasina’s government would go easy on India over the water-sharing issue, while India would go easy on Dhaka over democracy. For both sides, it was a win-win arrangement. That arrangement collapsed twice: first on August 5, 2024, when Hasina’s government fell, and she fled to Delhi; and again on February 12, 2026, when the BNP returned to power after two decades.