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Before discussing whether or not Iran will lose this war, we first have to define “losing.” On a military level, Iran loses if the regime collapses, Iran is dismembered, or Iran is indefinitely strategically subordinate to another country. On a geopolitical level, countries can lose battles and still win wars. If Iran keeps its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and even if its regime remains intact on a smaller scale, it will not lose this war.

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Fall 2025: Issue 43