Pakistan has been witnessing a surge in cases of terrorist activities since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in August, 2021.  Pakistan has been roiled by the fact that the Teherik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) found safe haven under the current Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Primarily, security forces near the border have become frequent targets of such violence. On the other side, the Taliban has blamed Pakistan for its violation of Afghan sovereignty and for harboring desire to dominate Afghanistan.

Terrorist violence in Pakistan is not a new phenomenon. Pakistan has been a victim to terrorism perpetrated by the TTP for last two decades. The recent development is, however, Afghanistan and Pakistan started confronting each other and exchanged fires as terrorist attacks on Pakistan spiked from across the border which a temporary ceasefire between the two sought to stop. Some research institutes such as the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies have described 2025 as the deadliest year for Pakistan in terms of the frequency and lethality of terrorist violence in the country’s territorial landscape.

The Afghan Taliban and Pakistan shared the strongest bonding specially in the times when they stood united against any common enemy. Now, at a time when Pakistan forces the Taliban to sever its links with the TTP-a militant group with which the Taliban has common stakes, the significance of Pakistan to the Taliban takes a backseat and Afghanistan’s bilateral problems with Pakistan, border issue and tensions with Pakistan’s interventionist role start hardening the bilateral relations.

Pakistan finds the TTP’s demands irreconcilable that includes implementation of Sharia law across Pakistan. It demands that Pakistan withdraws its troops from areas near the border. At the extreme point, the group has been pursuing the objective of overthrowing the existing government of Pakistan and seeking to supplant it with an Islamist emirate.

Pakistan has not only accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring the anti-Pakistani militants, it has carried out airstrikes against the TTP targets in Afghanistan’s Paktika province which led to rounds of attacks and counterattacks. Countries such as Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia have made efforts to broker peace between Afghanistan and Pakistan. But no efforts have ensured any slackening of ties between Afghan Taliban and the TTP. On the other side, Afghanistan has blamed Pakistan for its desire to dominate the former and for its collusion with external powers to fulfill its objectives. Pakistan has also condemned the Afghan Taliban for begetting many other terrorist outfits including Al Qaeda, ISIS and other regional militant outfits. So far, a temporary ceasefire between the two countries has curbed violence but the rift seems to be deepening with violation of fragile ceasefire. The TTP has a strong base in the Tirah Valley within Pakistan which may turn out to be a flashpoint in the conflict between Pakistan and the group and foment further conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

India and its Changing Equations with the Taliban

Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, India spooked by the phenomenal rise of the Taliban propped up by Pakistan provided support to its opposition group Northern Alliance. It was perceived by the Indian foreign policy establishment that the installation of the Taliban regime would sound the death knell of India's Afghan policy although the Taliban projected its agenda being a nationalist one. Concerns about Pakistan’s ‘Strategic Depth’ made India’s strategic circles worried. They perceived India’s diplomatic, economic and strategic presence getting virtually cut-off from Afghanistan. More concerning was the Afghanistan-Pakistan axis - a bigger war-front that India had to deal with in the eventuality of any future war with Pakistan. In addition to this, New Delhi was worried about the spread of radical Islam into the Central Asian region with Afghanistan serving as an opening.

Hardly did any strategic expert of India conceive of a rift between the Taliban and Pakistan and warming of ties between the Taliban and India even while border conflict and the Pashtunistan issue traditionally drove a wedge between Pakistan and Afghanistan. For Pakistan, the Taliban was a successful bet to defuse the Pashtunistan issue through the spread of radical Islam- a territorial claim through the larger banner of religion. However, later on radicalism of the TTP supported by Afghan Taliban turned out to be an existential threat to Pakistan itself. Moreover, Pakistan became deeply concerned about the burgeoning ties between the Afghan Taliban and India as the myth of strategic depth seemed busted.

Decades back, in the process of Afghan reconstruction, India started investing in various infrastructure projects and enhancing diplomatic footprint in Afghanistan. By the end of withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, India had completed some key infrastructure projects contributing to its goodwill among Afghans. India not only handed over a new Afghan Parliament to President Ashraf Ghani in December 2015, the Afghan-India Friendship Dam (Salma Dam), Doshi and Charikar substations works were also completed. Apart from these, restoration of Stor Palace, establishment of new diagnostic centre and construction of decentralized waste water treatment system at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health (IGICH) and establishment of Afghan National Agriculture Science and Technology University in Kandahar became remarkable achievements of India in the area of infrastructure-building.

On the other side, Pakistan played a dual game in the global war against terrorism by keeping its support for the Taliban while at the same time claiming to be a formidable partner in the persecution of the war. Pakistan expected the Taliban’s return in August, 2021 would end India’s presence in Afghanistan.

However, India moved cautiously and did not take an anti-Taliban position following the Taliban’s takeover. Keeping its stakes in mind, India refused to grant asylum to the elites and politicians from Afghanistan who sought shelter in India after the Taliban takeover in 2021. Deepak Mittal, the Indian ambassador in Qatar, officially met with Shir Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, one of the senior leaders of the Taliban, in Qatar in which the latter assured the former that India need not be worried regarding its investments and other stakes in Afghanistan. Capitalizing on the assurance, a team of officials led by Joint Secretary (PAI), Ministry of External Affairs, JP Singh, traveled to Kabul in June 2022 to hand over India’s humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. This was the first official Indian visit to Afghanistan since the Taliban wrested power in Afghanistan in August, 2021. Diplomatic channels with Afghanistan were partially restored with India’s “technical team”reaching in Kabul to oversee and coordinate aid and humanitarian assistance. By sending the team, India in a way took cognizance of the Taliban’s governance.

However, in the backdrop of confrontation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Afghanistan’s relationship with India received further energies. By the end of 2025, many positive developments informed the bilateral relations. For instance, Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban’s foreign minister, arrived in New Delhi in October for a round of high‑level talks and expressed his satisfaction over the promising future of India‑Afghanistan relations. In a landmark move, India fully reopened its embassy in Kabul for the first time since 2021, signaling a renewed diplomatic channel. Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi had a series of meetings with Indian officials and business leaders, culminating in the launch of a joint chamber of commerce and industry to deepen trade ties in November. Soon after, in December, Noor Jalal Jalali, Afghan Minister of Public Health, made an official visit to India underscoring a swift and pragmatic strengthening of bilateral engagement.

The Taliban has turned against its progenitor Pakistan largely because the latter sought to use this group to advance its narrow interests and streaks of dominance in Afghanistan. It promoted radical Islam to diminish India's influence in Afghanistan and defuse Pashtunistan issue but radicalism later turned out to be an existential threat threat to Pakistan. Pakistan ignored the organic and ideological ties that interweave the Taliban of both countries. Afghan Taliban is unlikely to break ranks with TTP for the fact that it will likely pave way for splitting the protean Taliban which includes pragmatic leaders as well as radical believers. Any move to alienate TTP by the Afghan Taliban would push the former to ally with ISKP - the dangerous rival of Afghan Taliban.

However, the long-term relationship between Afghanistan and India would depend on a number of variables such as the ways both can align themselves at the levels of values like democracy, pluralism, cultural ties and people-to-people contacts.