Bangladesh’s election could represent one of the most precarious political moments since it started holding elections again in the early-1990s. Bangladesh’s upcoming national election should have been a time for the political competition to peacefully transfer power after the vote or prepare to assume it should the results turn out differently than hoped. Instead, it is fast becoming a boiling pot of internal power struggles, external interference, disinformation warfare, and threats of violence.

Indeed, national elections in Bangladesh have drawn international attention not just from Indians and Chinese but from stakeholders across South Asia and beyond who recognize that Bangladesh will help define the regional geopolitical map for the foreseeable future. But what is most worrying is that many Bangladeshis feel like there are domestic and foreign elements actively working to either prevent the elections from occurring peacefully or undermine the results once they do occur.

Put simply, Bangladeshis wonder if they will even be allowed to hold an election without disruption.

The role of External Factors

Located between regional powers India and China and amidst the ever-important Indo-Pacific region, Bangladesh simply holds too much geopolitical significance to do so. India’s involvement has historically been the most palpable for reasons of proximity, security, and economy. Seen through this lens, many in Dhaka’s political circles are increasingly concerned that powerful elements within India’s strategic community are deeply uncomfortable with the political change occurring in Bangladesh and an order that might leave their favored collaborators and champions behind. This concern has been amplified by the presence of hundreds, if not thousands, of former Bangladeshi politicians, bureaucrats, intelligence operatives, law enforcement officials, and chiefs who have found refuge in India.

While most will undoubtedly enjoy their retirements away from the harsh spotlight of Bangladesh’s public life, it is naïve to believe that the old guard will quietly fade into the sunset, given their capabilities.

Many still command resources back home through familial, financial, digital, and loyalist networks built up during their tenures as Bangladesh’s bureaucratic, political, and coercive elites. Many of these individuals also have reasons to shape Bangladesh’s next political dispensation, for their political survival, and in some cases, legal impunity.

By suddenly throwing a wrench in the election or internationalizing the polls as “fraudulent” before, during, and after the event, a clear strategic goal would be achieved: An order that does not include them functioning inside Bangladesh would be proven impossible.

Of course, one does not have to subscribe to the entirety of this analysis to assuage these fears.

Perception has long since become reality in Bangladesh’s political dynamic.

Fear of Proxy War

Hybrid, subtle political warfare seldom takes place directly. Instead, it metastasizes through proxies, plausibly deniable units, and psychological operations. Bangladesh is showing many signs that are eerily reminiscent of a state ripe for political proxy warfare.

There are genuine fears that small militant or criminal outfits may be used to trigger specific incidents that have the potential to incite mass riots. Attacks against political gatherings, vulnerable communal locations, and even high-profile aspirants may be the trigger that Bangladesh needs to plunge into full-blown chaos. Bangladesh’s polarized political environment does not help matters.

The goal of such attacks will likely not be to outright take power or seize territory. Instead, delegitimize the vote itself. Violence and fear of violence can lead to a low turnout, which can create doubts about a free and fair election. Triggering riots that lead to Bangladesh Police pouring in baton charges and using live ammunition against protesters can only lead to more chaos.

Social media will undoubtedly play a massive role in all of this. Deepfake videos, voice recordings, and coordinated mass rumors have already started making rounds in various social media groups. Advancements in artificial intelligence have allowed people to create hyper-realistic but completely fabricated videos and audio, which can incite violence within hours of creation. In a climate where Bangladeshis have lost trust in most, if not all, political actors, this will prove to be a powerful tool.

However, all of this foreign mischief necessitates help from collaborators on the inside.

Collaborators from Within

Foreign interference and covert action would be less effective without allies on the ground. Bangladesh has long-standing ties with its political elites, developed over decades. It is naive to think that all strands of loyalty to the old ways do not still exist within Bangladesh’s bureaucracies, military, police, businesses, media companies, and, probably, elsewhere.

Whether it is leaking confidential documents to undermine certain leaders, pushing divisive narratives through owned media outlets, stonewalling government initiatives, or facilitating covert fundings and transactions, the slightest amount of self-serving sabotage could snowball into something much bigger if it occurs on a widespread scale in the run-up to the elections.

As such, rooting out these elements could pose a challenge in its own right. Going on a bloody purge could do more harm than good and politicize currently independent institutions. Turning a blind eye would allow these centers of power to remain silent yet influential arbiters of Bangladesh’s future.

Security Apparatus: Prepared but tried

The Bangladesh state has not taken these threats lying down. The government is reportedly pulling out all the stops and deploying one of the largest peacetime security forces in Bangladesh’s history. Army, Police, Border Guard, and Ansar/VDP personnel will be deployed in polling centers across the country to ensure voters can cast their ballots and to provide additional security for major transit routes, highways, and establishments.

Intelligence, surveillance drones, and cyber wings will also be tasked with tackling both physical and cyber threats.

Bangladesh’s ability to ensure a level of security and stability should not be underestimated. Time and again, the country has shown that it can put down domestic unrest and dismantle militant capabilities. Bangladesh also has experience conducting elections during tough times.

But never has Bangladesh faced a threat this nuanced and multifaceted. Coupled with the possibility of small-scale but widespread terrorism and polarizing influence campaigns, Bangladesh’s security forces could very well be spread thin if enough triggers occur simultaneously. Perception will also play a role; if the public starts to believe that the security forces are serving the interests of one party over another, it would do little to assuage the voting public and could incite further violence.

Two Paths for Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s future will be drastically altered over the next few years, depending on how this election goes.

A peaceful election that is deemed free and fair by the majority of Bangladeshis will allow the country to reset and enter a period of cautious stability. Legitimate leadership would empower the state to rebuild the economy, revamp essential systems, and engage the international community. Investors and international stakeholders who have long been skeptical of Bangladesh’s unpredictable political landscape would likely show increased interest and capital. Bangladesh could position itself as a crucial economic stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific without being forced to overtly side with one geopolitical bloc or another.

Demonstrating to the world that Bangladesh can hold a peaceful transition of power would prove a point to foreigners and Bangladeshis alike: That Bangladeshis are not toddlers who require outside powers to keep us civil.

On the other hand, if elections turn nasty and trigger civil unrest, targeted killings of political figures, or fail to occur at all due to fear of violence, Bangladesh could slip into a downward spiral from which it might never recover. Rejectionist politics could lead to mass protests, which will be met with a state crackdown. The economy will take a nosedive as the Taka continues to plunge amid outflows by foreign investors.

Foreign influence in Bangladesh would only intensify under the pretext of maintaining stability or supporting a political faction. Bangladesh’s sovereignty would slowly begin to erode.

A Call for Responsible Leadership

This is where all stakeholders within Bangladesh must take a long, hard look in the mirror and take responsibility. All political parties and actors need to exercise restraint. Violence begets violence. Everyone is itching for a fight, but will anyone be around to pick up the pieces should Bangladesh burn?

Bangladeshis, too, should take responsibility for checking themselves on social media and against disinformation. Panic, fear, and paranoia are powerful weapons that can undermine a nation’s stability.

A Test of the Republic

Bangladesh’s upcoming general elections have become a powder keg of external and internal factors that could spell disaster if left unchecked. Foreign intrigue, political sabotage, and hate-inspired violence could destabilize the country. But it also presents an opportunity.

An opportunity to prove to ourselves and the world that Bangladeshis are responsible stakeholders of democracy and capable of managing our own affairs without resorting to geopolitically fueled chaos.

If we let Bangladesh burn,  we will regret it for generations to come.