Gilgit-Baltistan borders China, Afghanistan and Kashmir (image credit: Al Jazeera)
The 2025 Global Peace Index (GPI) has issued a stark warning to the international community: the Kashmir conflict, long regarded as a frozen dispute, is now one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The report specifically attributes this alarming escalation to India’s increasing militarization of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), reckless political decisions, and aggressive military posturing, which stand in sharp contrast to Pakistan’s measured and restrained approach.
India’s muscular Kashmir policy—marked by half a million troops, a swollen local police force, frequent crackdowns, and unapologetic jingoism—has not only devastated the lives of Kashmiris but also pushed South Asia closer to the edge of catastrophe. The GPI’s findings are a wake-up call to those who continue to ignore or downplay the consequences of New Delhi’s belligerence.
The report lays bare the human cost of the conflict. Since 1989, more than 40,000 people have been killed in IIOJK as a result of India’s brutal counterinsurgency operations. These are not mere statistics—they are lives lost to extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and constant state-sponsored violence. The GPI rightly identifies this humanitarian crisis as one of the key factors dragging India’s peace ranking downward. Instead of addressing Kashmir’s political aspirations through dialogue and democratic means, India has chosen to rule through fear and force.
Perhaps the most striking revelation in the GPI 2025 report is the contrast between Indian-administered Kashmir and Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). While India has stationed over 500,000 troops, 130,000 police officers, and various paramilitary forces in IIOJK, Pakistan maintains only about 60,000 troops in AJK—primarily along the Line of Control (LoC) to defend against aggression. This massive disparity in military presence tells a clear story: IIOJK has become the most militarized zone in the world, a surveillance state suffocating under the weight of occupation, while AJK remains relatively peaceful, devoid of the overwhelming security apparatus that defines life across the LoC.
India’s recklessness was on full display in May 2025, when it launched an unprovoked missile strike into Pakistan in retaliation for the 22 April Pahalgam attack. The GPI report notably refers to the attackers as “gunmen” rather than “terrorists,” a significant semantic shift that aligns with global reluctance to equate Kashmiri freedom fighters with terrorist actors. By choosing to retaliate with a missile strike—a decision that risked full-scale war between two nuclear states—India showed a stunning disregard for regional stability. It was only through Pakistan’s restraint and diplomatic maturity that the crisis did not spiral further out of control.
The GPI report also cites the August 2019 abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A—India’s move to strip Jammu and Kashmir of its limited autonomy—as a major accelerant in the current crisis. What followed was predictable: mass arrests, internet blackouts, curfews, a troop surge, and the near-total political disenfranchisement of the Kashmiri people.
Rather than integrating Kashmir, the move alienated the region even further, igniting a wave of protests and reactivating a resistance movement that had, for a time, been dormant. India’s actions, far from fulfilling the promise of “national integration,” have entrenched a culture of occupation and deepened the psychological and political divide between Kashmiris and the Indian state.
India’s Kashmir policy, the report notes, has been weaponized for domestic political gain. The revocation of Kashmir’s special status was portrayed as a historic nationalist victory, helping fuel the rise of Hindutva politics and feeding a dangerous cycle of anti-Muslim sentiment within India. This communal rhetoric, when paired with militarization in Kashmir, creates a toxic brew. The GPI warns that the situation not only threatens regional war but could also trigger widespread communal violence within India itself—particularly against its 200 million-strong Muslim population.
Perhaps the gravest warning in the Global Peace Index 2025 report is the forecast that conflict in Kashmir is “highly likely” within the next year. This isn’t an academic assessment—it is a sober warning based on current troop deployments, political developments, and historical trends.
The possibility of a limited skirmish spiraling into nuclear war remains frighteningly real. With nationalist fervor on one side and a besieged population on the other, the Kashmir conflict represents a powder keg that requires immediate international attention.
The world cannot afford to ignore the findings of the Global Peace Index. Silence or diplomatic neutrality in the face of human rights abuses, aggressive militarization, and nuclear brinkmanship is no longer tenable. The international community must call India to account for its policies in Kashmir, push for demilitarization, and support renewed dialogue based on the will of the Kashmiri people.
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