Pakistan is strong in the skies but weak on the ground

Farhan Bokhari is an Islamabad-based foreign correspondent who writes on Pakistan and the surrounding region.

Pakistan’s 78th Independence Day on Aug. 14 was marked with fanfare, as the country showcased some of its latest acquisitions from China’s arsenal of advanced weaponry.

The display, however, came at a time of pressing challenges. Climate change has unleashed unusually heavy rainfall across the country, with around 400 people reportedly killed in rain-related accidents as of the third week of August. Meanwhile, the economy remains fragile: Last year’s $7 billion International Monetary Fund loan has provided short-term stability, but growth remains modest.

The contrast captures Pakistan’s dilemma. A deepening military partnership with China is boosting its confidence against India, yet the country’s most urgent tests lie elsewhere — from climate change to long-delayed economic reforms. The Independence Day spectacle may have projected strength, but Pakistan’s future will hinge less on imported firepower than on how it addresses these domestic vulnerabilities.

On the military front, neither Beijing nor Islamabad has disclosed the financial details of their arms trade, though analysts estimate that more than 80% of Pakistan’s annual conventional weapons spending now goes to China.

The Aug. 14 celebrations included a midnight flyby by a batch of a Chinese-made J-10CP fighters jet armed with advanced air-to-air missiles. Days earlier, Pakistan received its first Z-10ME Chinese attack helicopters, with more to follow. And right after the festivities, China launched the third of four diesel-electric Hangor-class submarines for the Pakistan Navy.

The moments of pageantry came on the heels of a military boost in May, when clashes with India left Pakistan claiming to have shot down six Indian jets — including at least three French-made Rafales — using Chinese fighters and missiles. Western officials have confirmed the downing of at least one Rafale, a milestone as the first confirmed loss of the French aircraft. Disputed or not, the incident has buoyed Islamabad’s self-confidence at a time when New Delhi has sharply expanded its own arms purchases.

Beijing has since reportedly agreed to deliver between 30 and 40 FC-31 advanced fighters, which would bring the first stealth aircraft to South Asia. If fulfilled, the deal would give Pakistan a rare technological edge in its rivalry with India.

Girls wear national flag colors as they celebrate Pakistan’s Independence Day, in Peshawar, on Aug. 14, 2025.    © AP

Yet cutting-edge weapons are papering over the cracks in Pakistan’s deeper crises.

Climate change has already inflicted mounting losses, raising fears of worsening environmental degradation. With a population exceeding 250 million and growing by up to 2.5% annually, the challenge of securing food, shelter and jobs is becoming ever more acute. Without urgent adaptation, Pakistan risks being overwhelmed.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb warned earlier this year that climate change and rapid population growth pose an “existential threat” to Pakistan’s future. Critics also argue the government should pause large infrastructure projects, such as highways and high-speed rail, and instead prioritize climate resilience. The urgency is underscored by the agriculture sector, which grew 0.6% in the last fiscal year (July-June) — well below population growth — signaling serious underperformance in a field critical to conservation and food security.

Equally critical are overdue economic reforms. The government must overhaul tax collection, revive growth and ease the cost of doing business. Industrialists are demanding lower electricity tariffs and interest rates as preconditions to expanding exports. Without structural change, IMF bailouts will remain a lifeline rather than a springboard for growth.

For now, the IMF loan has pulled Pakistan back from the brink of a default on its foreign debt. Yet solvency alone does not ensure economic stability, nor does it make the country an attractive destination for domestic or foreign investment.

Political turmoil continues to weigh heavily. Disputes have remained intense since the jailing of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in mid-2023. Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party insist that the February 2024 elections were rigged to block their return to power after his ouster in a 2022 no-confidence vote. The ongoing discord has deepened Pakistan’s image as a nation trapped in recurring cycles of political strife.

This month’s celebrations offered Pakistanis a rare moment of unity and pride. But symbolism alone will not secure the country’s future. For all the spectacle in the skies, Pakistan’s stability will depend on how it confronts the storms at home.

The article appeared in asia.nikkei