Pakistan Air Force: Assessing Capabilities and Modernisation Trends

The four-day India-Pakistan conflict, triggered by the gruesome Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, showcased the decisive strikes, precision, penetration through Pakistan’s air defence system, and battlefield control of India’s defence apparatus. Pakistan’s air defence and strike capabilities struggled to perform and stood paralysed. While Pakistan continues to drive a chest-thumping victory narrative, attempting to mask its strategic defeat following the failure of its low-threshold nuclear projection and asset losses, the military will be compelled to intensify the modernisation of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). 

The trend in Pakistan’s military acquisitions suggests that the focus of defence modernisation has been on building up the air force and aerial maritime strike capabilities, specifically after the Kargil War in 1999. Pakistan aspired to high-technology equipment from the United States (US), and its periodic alliances with the US (1950s, 1980s, and post-2001) have been critical in shaping the expansion and modernisation of its military capabilities. During the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, Pakistan acquired arms mainly from the US (for high-technology systems) and China (for low-cost but efficient systems), with a small proportion sourced from France. The weapon inflow from Washington included sophisticated Patton main battle tanks, modern artillery, Howitzers, F-86 jet fighter squadrons, F-104 Starfighter supersonic interceptors, air-to-air missiles, and state-of-the-art radar, communications and transportation equipment.

In 1966, the Chinese F-6 entered the PAF’s inventory, followed by other systems. Chinese military assistance also contributed to the development of Pakistan’s indigenous defence production facilities. For example, the F-6 Rebuild Factory (F-6RF) at Kamra was set up with Chinese assistance. US supplies were no longer available in the 1970s, and the PAF’s build-up continued with Chinese and French equipment. China supplied F-6 Fighters between 1971 and 1981. France supplied Mirages between 1971 and 1983. Some air defence equipment, including the F-104A Fighters and Helicopters, was purchased from Jordan and the United Kingdom. 

In the 1980s, US supplies were revived after Pakistan was declared a “frontline state” in the US effort to counter the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan negotiated lavish military assistance from the US, which included the sale of the F-16 Fighting Falcon multi-role combat aircraft, among the most advanced military aircraft in the world at the time. 

During the 1990s, the Sino-Pakistan defence collaboration flourished in the context of US sanctions on Pakistan, and the two countries subsequently collaborated on significant projects. The Aircraft Manufacturing Factory (AMF) under the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) at Kamra began production of the Karakorum-8 jet trainer, in collaboration with the Hongdu Aviation Industry (Group) Corporation, formerly China Nanchang Aircraft Manufacturing Company (CNMC).

Pakistan has taken pride in the Chinese fourth-generation fighter aircraft, the JF-17 (earlier called the FC-1). The JF-17 is fitted with a Russian Klimov RD-93 turbofan jet engine, and the initial batch was equipped with the Chinese KLJ-7 multirole pulse-Doppler radar. The JF-17 is co-developed by Pakistan and China and is built by China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation (CAC) and the PAC. The PAF has selected the KLJ-7A active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar for the JF-17 Block III.

After 9/11, Pakistan received lavish US military aid and weapon supplies between 2002 and 2012. As a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) of the West, Pakistan also became eligible to receive Excess Defense Articles (EDA) from the US. US supplies for the PAF included utility helicopters, combat helicopters, VHF/UHF aircraft radios, air traffic control radars, night vision equipment, and other support systems, including intelligence-gathering devices. High-tech weapons and equipment from the United States included the F-16C Block 50/52 fighter aircraft.

Pakistan also procured airborne early warning systems from Sweden and China. In 2006, Pakistan entered a deal with Sweden for the purchase of  SAAB-2000 turboprop aircraft equipped with Erieye Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AEW&C). Pakistan placed the order for the Chinese-built airborne early warning aircraft ZDK-03 in 2008 and received the deliveries between 2011 and 2014. Imports from Russia included Mi-35M Combat Helicopters, acquired in 2018.

Pakistan received the first batch of the J-10C, a multirole combat aircraft, from China in early 2022. The JF-17 Block III and J-10s are equipped with the Chinese PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles. According to reports, Pakistan plans to acquire up to 40 units of the Chinese fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-35A. The J-35A, developed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, is the second fifth-generation stealth fighter after the J-20.

Pakistan acquired and inducted multiple units of the HQ-9P air defence system into its army from China in 2021. The air defence system offers long-range surface-to-air capabilities with a base range of 130 km. Pakistan also acquired the HQ-9B variant for the PAF, which has a range of 250-300 km.

Pakistan’s relations with Türkiye have evolved, and the two nations have collaborated on defence technology and joint ventures. Pakistan was the second-largest recipient of Türkiye’s arms exports between 2020 and 2024. Türkiye has been actively involved in upgrading F-16s for Pakistan and has supplied the country with advanced drones, including the Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci. The PAF chose the Turkish-made Aselpod for the JF-17s and ordered it from the Turkish firm ASELSAN in 2016. The Turkish technology company, HAVELSAN, has also delivered a full-spectrum electronic warfare training range to Pakistan. Pakistan has been in discussions with Türkiye regarding the possible export of the fifth-generation aircraft, the Turkish KAAN, manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ). There are reports that the two nations will establish a joint factory to produce the KAAN.

The PAF’s modernisation spree has been facilitated by Pakistan’s alliance with the US, its deepening strategic partnership with China, and its ideological and strategic bonhomie with Türkiye. The PAF’s goal has been to boost aerial warfare capabilities, acquire high-technology equipment, strengthen air defence, and focus on force multipliers to offset numerical asymmetry vis-à-vis India. During the recent India-Pakistan conflict, Pakistan benefited from the integration of its weapon systems, as the majority of its weapons are of Chinese origin. However, the conflict highlighted the vulnerabilities of the PAF, including gaps in its air defence system and the penetrability of its existing equipment. India’s S-400, Akash, and Brahmos systems added to its conventional edge. In the coming years, Pakistan’s focus will be on enhancing its offensive capabilities through the acquisition of advanced fighters and Long Range Standoff Weapons. The PAF acquisitions are likely to see the following trends:

  • Chinese equipment will continue to dominate Pakistan’s defence imports. However, imports from Türkiye are likely to gain momentum.

  • Pakistan has shown keen interest in acquiring China’s elusive sixth-generation fighter jets by 2030. Islamabad’s efforts will continue in this direction.

  • Strengthening the air defence system would be a priority, with Pakistan having initiated talks with Türkiye for the purchase of the SIPER air defence system. China has also offered Pakistan its KJ-500 Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft and the HQ-19 long-range air defence missile system.

  • The PAF aims to acquire long-range air-to-air missiles. Pakistan is set to receive the J-35A, which will be equipped with China’s PL-17 air-to-air missile, which has a range of approximately 400 km.

Despite prolonged fiscal challenges, mounting debt burden, and a significant portion of the federal budget dedicated to debt servicing, Pakistan has announced a substantial increase in defence spending in the budget for the fiscal year 2025-2026. This will once again divert national resources away from much-needed development expenditure. This trend is not new for Pakistan, where national power continues to be defined primarily through military build-up.

The article appeared in orfonline