A couple of days before the February 12, 2026, Bangladesh election, Chris Bartlett, a senior journalist of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), interviewed me to get my insights and thoughts on Bangladesh, the election, the evolving political dynamics surrounding the election and the aftermath. To help me with the video interview, Chris shared with me in advance a set of questions that included the following issues:

  • An overall impression of the current situation in Bangladesh and the election
  • Bangladesh’s evolving political architecture,
  • Overall situation in Bangladesh
  • The Hasina factor
  • Bangladesh/India relations, etc.

 

Based on the conversations that Chris had with other experts and me, he published on February 11, 2026, an article in ABC’s online journal, entitled, “Bangladesh's election is a chance to reboot democracy, but who will lead the country?”  (https://www.abc.net.au/asia/bangladesh-election-guide/106327392).

After going through the article, I realised that, given the constraints of audience interest, space and time, the article that Chris published did not capture all the thoughts and views that I shared with him in the written Q&A script that I had prepared.

Now, seeing the post-election developments and the way politics in Bangladesh is currently evolving, I felt the urge to share the full spectrum of my views and thoughts that I exchanged with Chris, mainly encourage further debate and discussion.

Bangladesh and the election

In January this year, I visited Dhaka, Bangladesh, after a decade and stayed for a week or so.

My first impression of Bangladesh began with the Dhaka Airport, which is officially known as Hazrat Shah Jalal International Airport (HSJIA).

To say the least, the experience was anything but pleasant. It was a nightmare – the airport looked more like a village fish market, people everywhere, noisy, and I spent 40 minutes at the Immigration desk. Airports are expected to be smart and efficient, a modern-day facility that most of us are used to, a place that is used to fly people in and out, seamlessly. No, not HSJIA.

Dhaka city itself has changed drastically. Compared to what I had seen a decade ago, there is more traffic, which to me looked more like orderly chaos. However, the traffic also revealed to me a couple of positive messages – more traffic on the streets is a proxy indicator of a busy economy; and secondly, that there is order in the chaos, meaning that people have learnt to live and move around in an orderly fashion, respecting each other’s space, mostly in conditions of disorder.

During this trip, I found more women on the streets and in workplaces, in government offices and in private companies, in shopping malls and hotels, and in some places, as security guards. This is encouraging. Also, compared to what I saw a decade ago, more women, young and old, are in Hijab, by choice, not by compulsion.

Looking at the quality of the buildings - residential, office blocks, shopping malls, etc. - and extensive digitisation, it became evident that during the last decade or so, Bangladesh has made significant technological advancements in certain fields.

Politically, things were not that great, obviously and as a result, the country witnessed a massive uprising against and unseated a repressive, autocratic and kleptocratic government that ruled the country for over a decade or so.

In the aftermath of the Uprising and during August 2024- Mid-February 2026, Bangladesh was governed by an Interim Government (IG) led by the Nobel Laureate Prof. Muhammad Yunus.

During this period, a semblance of order and rule of law returned to the country. Significant progress was made in some areas, especially in the delivery of certain basic services such as the issuance of National Identity Documents, Passports, etc. Until now, obtaining these public services and entitlements was a nightmare and involved payments of speed money at various stages. No more, things have been eased remarkably and made people friendly.

In summary, the IG that took upon itself the responsibility of administering the country at one of its most critical junctures, helped:

  • Putting a collapsing Bangladesh on its feet.
  • Steadying the economy and the law and order, though the latter not fully, but enough to make the country and the economy move forward.
  • Restored freedom of speech.
  • Facilitated transition to democracy through holding a free and fair election, and more importantly.
  • Unshackled Bangladesh from India’s hegemonic grip - political, security and economic.

The IG has also produced several reform proposals in record time, and these, when implemented, have the potential to make governance in Bangladesh democratic, transparent, and accountable.

These positive changes do indicate that alternatives are possible, meaning a better Bangladesh is possible, provided….

The election and the aspirations

The election was held on February 12, 2026, and as per reports of the election observers – local and international – the election was peaceful, free, and fair.

The winner, Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) 9-point programme, promised a ‘social contract’, aimed at improving the well-being of the young, especially women, farmers and workers, corruption eradication, and establishment of good governance norms, creation of new jobs, economic and social liberation of people, and religious freedom and tolerance, etc.

BNP also promised better environmental management and increased Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, for development.

Bangladesh Jamaat-i-Islam (BJI), the rival contender, now the main opposition party in the parliament proposed in their campaign, a 26-point programme of action, which, among other things, stressed “Insaaf” or justness/fairness as its core principle of governance, that also included a comprehensive social security system, interest-free loans for the less wealthy and new entrepreneurs, interest-free loans for the meritorious students to study overseas, establishment of the world’s largest women-only university, guarantee of safety, security, dignity, and equal opportunities for all.

While it is conceivable that BJI’s 26-point programme and also the fact that the Islamic party enjoyed a corruption-free image did make positive impressions among the electorate though its lack of experience in governance, strong theological leanings, not-so-clear position on women and the fact that it did not give nomination to a single female candidate in the election did compromise its appeal especially among the town-folks and the women and costed it electorally.

Notwithstanding, Jamaat has emerged from a party on the fringe to a mainstream political party, mainly because of its clean image.

Corruption, climate change

All contesting parties, including the two leading parties, the BNP and Jamaat, pledged to control corruption and tackle climate change.

In Bangladesh, corruption has gone through various phases and worsened progressively. In the beginning, corruption was tolerated (1972-1975), then it got institutionalised (1976-1981) and then, corruption gained respectability (1981-2008), and since 2009 till July 2024, during the Hasina period, corruption became an entitlement, implying that to eradicate or reduce corruption in Bangladesh, one would need to not just introduce and apply rigid corruption control measures but will need to work on the value system of people that have undergone drastic change for the worse, especially in recent years. So far, and beyond the rhetoric, neither BNP nor Jamaat has produced a comprehensive corruption control strategy.

Again, on climate change, neither BNP nor Jamaat have gone beyond rhetoric.

One of my former PhD students, Dr Amy Macmahon, a member of the Australian Greens Party and a former Member of the Parliament of Queensland, Australia, did her PhD on Climate Change and Food Security in Bangladesh. Amy’s key findings are the following: (i) the threat of climate change in Bangladesh is real and looms large; (ii) while there is a growing body of work regarding the relationship between climate change and vulnerability, there is little scholarship nor strategy to address the issue comprehensively; (iii) a bottom-up approach is key in addressing the climate change threats and adaptations that are community and gender based.

Does not look like either of the leading political parties, namely BNP, the winning party and Jamaat, the opposition, has any clue, let alone policy ideas, about the nature and seriousness of the climate change threats.

In addition to climate change threats, the big cities in Bangladesh, such as Dhaka and Chittagong, have been witnessing an alarming rise in air and water pollution, posing major health threats, and a threat to the economy in terms of rising per capita medical costs, loss of income and productivity and slower economic growth. Yet neither BNP nor the BJI have flagged air/water pollution as one of their priority agenda. 

The Sheikh Hasina phenomenon

Sk. Hasina is out of Bangladesh but not absent from Bangladesh. From her safe abode in Delhi, India, where she has ensconced herself comfortably since the July 2024 uprising, Sheikh Hasina continues to lead and guide her party, the Awami League, remotely and with the cooperation of the Indian government, through phone calls and social media, planning revenge.

While there is no denying the fact that during its decade and a half rule, the Awami League under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina did many good things, especially in infrastructure development, many of its mistakes, such as loot plunder, repression and authoritarianism, triggered a violent uprising that ended her rule and contributed to her unceremonious ouster.

The sad thing about the ousted Awami League is that even after facing such mass anger and an uprising that toppled it from the seat of power, events that warranted reflection, remorse, apology, and reform, - no, none so far. On the contrary, the Awami League is focusing on revenge, with the result that the Awami League, Bangladesh’s oldest political party, and a party that led the liberation war, has turned itself into one of the most despised and directionless parties.

Notwithstanding, the Interim Government made a mistake by not lifting the ban on the Awami League and allowing it to take part in the election. The absence of the Awami League has made the election less inclusive, and secondly, had the Awami League been allowed to take part in the election, it would have forced, in the absence of its exiled, convicted leadership, to reorganise and reform, and install new leadership.

The real beneficiaries of Awami League’s absence in the poll are the BNP candidates - the BNP-led alliance won 212 seats, followed by the Jamaat alliance, which won 77 of the 297 parliamentary seats for which results have been announced.

The younger generation

40% of the new 128 million voters belonged to the age group 18-35, and therefore, the young did have a strong say on the outcomes of the election, though the election results have revealed a very different trend – the National Citizens Party (NCP), the splinter group of the July Uprising that allied with the Jamaat won three out of seven candidates they fielded and this was mainly because the NCP, was poorly organised and fractured. However, one must remember that the NCP is a splinter group of the July aspirants. The expectations, spirit and idealism that have been instilled among the youth by the July uprising have remained intact among the young who are likely to play, in one form or another, a key role in shaping the future governance of the country.

It is also conceivable that NCP parliamentarians would play an active role in the incoming parliament.

The India factor

In recent years, India has played a transformative role in shaping Bangladesh’s politics – its neighbourhood policy, which includes its policy towards Bangladesh, hinges on a hegemonic paradigm and pursued through cunning and intimidation, India’s policy towards Bangladesh, especially during the Hasina period, was designed to extract maximum concessions, both economic and security, in exchange for shoring up and backing a puppet autocratic and kleptocratic regime, turning Bangladesh into a de facto vassal state of India.

The post-July 2024 revolution Interim Government took steps to unshackle India’s hegemonic grip, and this did not go down well with India.

Time will tell how the newly elected BNP government positions Bangladesh vis-à-vis India, though early signs are anything but reassuring. Regardless, India/Bangladesh relations need to be recalibrated in a manner that ensures respect for and sensitivity to each other’s security and sovereignty and an arrangement that promotes mutually beneficial economic benefits between the two neighbours.

The prognosis

BNP has already formed a government, and while demonstrated through modesty by the leader Tarique Rahman the early signs have been encouraging, because “No triumphalism, no chest-thumping—just a quiet pledge to rebuild trust and deliver change,” remarks of a loudmouthed minister who moralised extortion as an act of payment based on mutual understanding, seem to have replaced hope with despair. True, “…a single aberrant remark does not erase a new dawn, nor does it negate the discipline and restraint the new leadership has already signalled..,” However, irresponsible utterances such as the above from a minister have shaken public confidence and dented the moral integrity of the party.

The more ideologically oriented supporters of the BNP wish to see their favoured party position it in the image of its founder, Ziaur Rahman, and act accordingly through examples of honesty, simplicity, patriotism, vision and uncompromising nationalism. Sadly, the behaviour, actions and decisions of the BNP newly appointed BNP government reveal a vastly different picture, giving the impression that the new BNP sees itself as a substitute for the deposed and much despised Awami League - a self-seeking, corrupt, bullying, and abusive political entity. This is deplorable.

“This was not the dawn we longed for”

Ms Arundhuti Roy once said that “The problem with democracy is that people often end up getting a government that they voted for, not the government they wanted.”

If the evolving scenario is any guide, for example, a BNP minister’s moralisation of extortion, mediocracy in cabinet selection, the selection of the new Bangladesh Bank Governor, a businessman and a loan defaulter, there indeed is much to be concerned about.

Given the fissures that have since emerged, it is conceivable that Bangladesh may have to go through yet another period of chaos and turmoil and fight before July Sanad is fully realised, and norms, values and practices of genuine democratic governance take root in the country – until then, as Faiz Ahmed Faiz once reminded, “This was not the dawn we longed for; Move on, we have yet a long haul to go.”