by Amom Malemnganba Singh 26 January 2022
Over the past years, there have been a lot of debates, on whether the US-China rivalry is headed for a New Cold War. A war that is quite different from the tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union which occurred just after the end of World War II. This article argues that the US-China rivalry has created a complex and hostile international system where states have become reluctant in taking sides.
Compared to the Soviet Union the rise of China is colossal and it cannot be stopped. The intense geopolitical rivalry taking place between the US and China is much more than an ideological struggle or an intense nuclear arms race that took place during the Cold War. It is more complex with several other things happening. From China’s craving for commodities, technological competition, and big infrastructure projects and deals. It has left the US worried about China’s ambitious continental strategies.
The big question is, does the US and China want a bipolar world? The answer would be yes! Both are in pursuit of dragging their rivalry into an ideological conflict of Democracy versus Communism much similar to the Cold War era. The US is in the effort of building a camp of freedom-loving countries to join against China. This was seen during the Trump administration with the reemergence of the ‘Blue Team’ who argues that China’s rise poses a ‘Threat’ in the long run.
With National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo taking aggressive foreign policies against China and calling Xi Jinping as General Secretary instead of President of China, it evoked a Cold War-style era within the administration. Trump administration labeled China as a ‘Revisionist Power’ that poses the greatest threat to its democracy, economy, and security with the military rivalry increasingly becoming a part of it. The administration believes that China wants to dethrone the US-led international order or whichever country stands in front. China is now creating new communism with extensive use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology as a tool for governance. It wants its power in Asia, Africa, and beyond.
The Biden administration has largely maintained Trump’s policies towards China. It has labeled down some of Trump’s Anti-China policies. However, Biden’s stance on China has so far been hostile, with his power the US pivot to Indo-Pacific is in full swing. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned China from taking aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region and has joined together with Australia, Canada, and the UK for a diplomatic boycott in the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics for its atrocities against the Uyghur community. As Xi Jinping cemented his rule for a lifetime the US has become even more unsettled.
Where does India stand in this great-power competition? India was independent on its own during the Cold War. The post-World War II bipolarity deeply impacted India’s foreign policy and has helped in deciding independent foreign policies. Today, it believes in a world without polarity and is not willing to join or take sides in any camps led by the US or China. India believes in a more interconnected and interdependent world, it still buys weapons from Russia, talks to China in The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and engages with other countries in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), and The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
In an increasingly polarized world between the US and China, India is playing the multipolarity card to find its space in Asia and a much wider world. In this complex international system, all states want to play their role, sit in the front row, speak in their languages, and no state wants to work or engage in a bipolar world economy.
However, China’s aggressive and expansionist behaviors towards Indian borders, its increasing naval footprints in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), relations with Pakistan, and targeted continental strategic policies like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are pushing India closer to the US. On the other hand, India-US has more than 50 bilateral dialogue mechanisms. The 2+2 ministerial dialogue between Secretaries of State and Defense and Indian counterparts has been the premier dialogue mechanism between the two countries. The wide-ranging dialogue architecture has helped in the long-term framework of their engagements.
The US with a resolute belief in the concept of a shared democratic value wants India to come clean and tall as an ally that strongly stands against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With its ever-deepening relations and India’s likeness of portraying the world as an example of democracy, the true alliance between India and the US is likely to come but slow.
In time both the US and China will try and influence India to take sides. In this case, India will play an important role in justifying the emerging bipolar world. It can polarize or depolarize the emerging concept of bipolarity between the US and China.
Platforms like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), and frequent navy drills with the members have created a resentment environment for China to defend against them. Other democratic groupings, Japan, America, and India (JAI) for instance have focused on the fundamental values and strategic interests, and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. The recent trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US also known as the Aukus has further deepened the polarity in the region with China calling it irresponsible.
Involving different countries, the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy to contain the rise of China is evolving. The drums of forming an absolute alliance against China are getting louder. One thing for sure is that the world is heading much deeper and more complex than a bipolar world. The international system will evolve to a more interesting arena where different players could play their roles. Any country that seeks to control the system will have to learn and concede other country’s spheres of influence.