With date set, Pakistan enters election season fraught with doubts

ISLAMABAD — After months of speculation, Pakistan finally has an election date, setting up a campaign in which experts say the odds will likely be stacked against allies of one of the country’s most popular politicians — jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced the polls will be on Feb. 8, after consulting with President Arif Alvi on instruction from Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa. “God willing, elections will be held on Feb. 8,” Isa remarked during a related court hearing.

The date is well past the constitutional deadline of Nov. 7, as the ECP and government put off the polls ostensibly to allow time to complete constituency delimitations based on a new census. Many experts suspected the delay had more to do with the political crisis that has gripped the country since Khan was removed from office by a no-confidence vote in April 2022.

But while the ruling government, backed by the powerful military, appeared to be in no rush to send voters to the polls, experts now believe the most likely scenario is that the electoral process will move ahead.

Shahzada Zulfiqar, a senior political analyst in Quetta, told Nikkei Asia that it would be very difficult for the government and ECP to further delay the elections now that the Supreme Court has approved the date.

The “ECP did not give an election date to former Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial in 55 hearings of the same case and it gave a date to Isa in just two hearings,” Asad Toor, a political analyst in Islamabad, noted, suggesting the commission will cooperate with the new chief justice.

Experts also believe that pressing ahead with the elections is necessary for an economic recovery, and that the military establishment understands this. The nation’s $340 billion economy only grew by 0.3% in fiscal 2023, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, said the military has plenty of good reasons not to delay elections any longer. “Investors and key donors, including the [International Monetary Fund], want to see less political uncertainty and economic recovery is a key priority for the army,” he told Nikkei.

As the campaign gets underway, one major concern will be security.

On Friday, 17 Pakistani security personnel were killed in different militant attacks in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On Thursday, militants attacked a training base of the Pakistan Air Force in Punjab.

“Given the sharp polarization and volatility in Pakistani politics, the risk of violence on election day and in the weeks leading up to it is considerable,” Kugelman said.

A security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that security challenges exist but that the establishment is confident they will be manageable.

More broadly, the question is who will represent the key parties and whether Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will have any shot at winning.

“There is no chance that the elections will be fair and free and a level playing field will be provided to all political parties,” said the analyst Toor.

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan attends a rally in Lahore in October 2022. He has been jailed since August.   © Reuters

Kugelman agreed. “The playing field hasn’t been level for months. What is likely the most popular political party in Pakistan [the PTI] has been sidelined, severely hampering its capacity to mount a successful campaign.”

Khan himself has been in jail since August, when he was handed a three-year prison term for corruption, later suspended. He has been kept in custody over other allegations which he and his supporters have long claimed are trumped up to prevent him from contesting the next election.

Adding more pressure on the PTI, police on Friday arrested party leader and former National Assembly speaker Asad Qaiser on corruption charges.

Kugelman fears the elections might even be rigged. “With the army and the parties currently aligned with it keen not to see PTI return to power, there will be big worries — especially from Khan’s large support base — about dirty electoral politics, especially in the weeks before election day,” he added.

Yet, despite these circumstances, experts do not rule out the PTI pulling off a surprise victory.

“Given its popularity and the unpopularity of the other major parties, [PTI] still has a chance, no matter who it puts on the ticket,” Kugelman said.

Political pundits believe the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) — the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who recently returned from years in self-imposed exile — has the backing of the military establishment.

“PML-N is the favorite of the establishment and it’s getting all possible support to win the elections,” Toor said.

Sharif, pictured greeting supporters on Oct. 21, faces a still-uncertain political future. But PML-N supporters have high hopes for him.   © Reuters

The party’s supporters, on the other hand, contend that the PML-N will win fair and square, based on its own merits.

“Nawaz Sharif is the only political leader capable of steering Pakistan out of political and economic crisis,” said Chaudhry Ikhlaq, a PML-N supporter in Lahore, predicting Sharif would do just that “after winning elections in February.” Sharif’s own political future remains unclear due to pending legal cases against him.

Some voters are just hoping for a safe, clean election.

Sadia Riaz, a teacher in Islamabad, takes a keen interest in politics and always shows up early at polling stations to vote.

“I hope that elections are peacefully held on time,” she said, “and we get to vote for the party that we want without any hurdles.”

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