Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Bhutan for two days next week. The visit holds immense significance not only for the two countries, but also for the region.

Notably, no prime minister has ever undertaken a foreign visit after the declaration of the schedule for the Lok Sabha elections.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Thimphu will closely follow Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay’s ongoing five-day visit to India.

Tobgay arrived in New Delhi on Thursday (14 March), his first foreign visit since assuming office in January this year. Soon after landing, Tobgay met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and then Prime Minister Modi. It was during his meeting with the latter that Tobgay invited Modi to Bhutan. The invitation was promptly accepted.

It is highly unusual for the Indian Prime Minister to pay a reciprocal visit a mere three days after the Prime Minister of the other country has concluded their India visit. Tobgay will fly out of India on Monday (18 March) and Modi’s Bhutan visit will commence on Thursday (21 March).

That Prime Minister Modi has chosen to do so, and that too in the middle of the busy election season, is proof enough of the importance that he attaches to Bhutan.

The Bhutanese king, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk, paid an eight-day visit to India in November 2023.

Though officials of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) are tight-lipped about the agenda for the upcoming visit, it is learnt that a few major agreements on security and military matters are expected to be signed in Thimphu.

Modi’s visit comes in the backdrop of disconcerting reports about China applying pressure on Bhutan to concede China’s claim over the 89 square-kilometre (sq km) Doklam plateau, which is of tremendous strategic value for India (read this).

Doklam is located at the India-Bhutan-Tibet trijunction and oversees the vulnerable Siliguri corridor, India’s only land link with its North East.

Beijing has offered a deal to Thimphu: in exchange for Doklam, it will give up its claims over Jakarlung and Pasamlung in northern Bhutan and Sakteng in eastern Bhutan, bordering Arunachal Pradesh.

India and China were engaged in a tense military standoff over Doklam for over two months from June to August 2017.

China, in pursuance of its incremental salami-slicing tactic, had been capturing small pieces of land in Doklam since the late 1990s. In June 2017, it started constructing a road to the strategic Jampheri ridge line overlooking India’s Siliguri Corridor.

On 18 June 2017, Indian troops along with heavy earth-moving equipment crossed over from Sikkim to Doklam in Bhutanese territory to stop the Chinese from constructing the road.

The Indian operation, codenamed Operation Juniper, resulted in a long standoff that was finally resolved with the Chinese backing off unilaterally in late August that year.

But China has always coveted Doklam because control over the plateau will allow it to launch strikes on the Siliguri corridor and effectively cut off North East India from the rest of the country.

Hence, India is determined to prevent China from gaining control over Doklam by arm-twisting Thimphu.

Highly-placed sources in the South Block (which houses the MEA) told Swarajya that Doklam will definitely be discussed during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Bhutan.

India is likely to offer enhanced military assistance to Bhutan. Apart from military hardware, including sophisticated drones, India is likely to put on the table enhanced capacity-building measures and facilities to the Royal Bhutan Army.

However, no formal communiqué is likely to be issued in this regard. Both countries are keen on keeping the extent of their close military ties under wraps.

Doklam aside, the most important issue that will be discussed during Prime Minister Modi’s visit is India’s involvement in the proposed ‘Gelephu Mindfulness City’ — a 1,000-sq-km Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Gelephu in south Bhutan alongside the India-Bhutan border and just across from Assam.

This project was announced by the Bhutanese King on the Himalayan kingdom’s national day on 17 December last year. Bhutan aims at attractive investments in environment-friendly and sustainable sectors from global investors.

India’s close involvement is necessary for the success of the project, which aims to provide jobs to Bhutanese youth and stem the increasing migration of young adults from Bhutan to other countries in search of jobs.

Bhutan wants India’s help in constructing a large international airport at Gelephu and constructing road and rail links through Assam to Gelephu.

Bhutan also wants Indian investments in Gelephu, especially in bio-technology, robotics, information technology or IT, hospitality, and some other ‘green’ sectors.

King Wangchuk and Prime Minister Tobgay want India to set up technical institutes along the lines of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) to impart training to Bhutanese youth.

Prime Minister Modi, it is learnt, will offer firm assurances on India’s help to Bhutan’s Gelephu project. Apart from facilitating the construction of the international airport and constructing rail and road links to Gelephu, the Prime Minister is expected to offer Bhutan seamless connectivity and linkages from Gelephu through Assam and the North East to Bangladesh and Myanmar to access South East Asian markets.

Prime Minister Modi will commit India’s involvement in Gelephu during his visit to Bhutan next week. New Delhi will also agree to facilitate investments from India Inc for the project.

India will, thus, commit itself to become a major stakeholder in Gelephu, a project that is close to King Wangchuk’s heart. Bhutan is keen to make this project a success.

It is learnt that Bhutan has been eager to host Prime Minister Modi in Thimphu before the Lok Sabha elections to not only obtain India’s commitment to the project, but also use the visit to signal potential investors about this commitment.

Gelephu’s success hinges on India’s cooperation, and global investors would want to be assured of India’s commitment. A visit by the Indian Prime Minister to Bhutan where he (Modi) makes a firm commitment to Gelephu would send the necessary signal to global investors.

Bhutan wants to start work on the Gelephu mega project immediately. It does not want to wait a few more months, until the end of the Lok Sabha elections and the formation of the next government in New Delhi, for the project to move beyond the ground-breaking ceremony held on 23 December last year.

That is why it insisted on Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Bhutan before the Lok Sabha elections.

The Indian Prime Minister obliged not only because the Gelephu project is important for India, but also because it will give Modi an opportunity to discuss Doklam, strengthen India-Bhutan ties, and send a strong message to China.