by Manoj Kumar 11 February 2022
The massive build-up of Russian forces on the Ukrainian borders on the justification to check the NATO’s expansion in the proximity of Russia’s Western frontiers has escalated into military, strategic, and diplomatic situation, which was never witnessed after the end of the Cold War. Some NATO participant countries have sent their military contingents to Ukraine, although these contingents are mainly for the training of Ukrainian defence personnel and providing them with military equipment. The main reason for tension between Russia and Ukraine is the reluctance of Ukraine in joining the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC), rejecting claims of Russia that Ukraine is culturally similar to Russia with the presence sizeable portion of the Russian diaspora in this country and Ukraine’s interest in joining Trans-Atlantic security arrangement. Moscow also has strong security and geo-political reasons for such action-oriented military build-up at Ukrainian borders, “In the current scenario, the expansion of NATO towards Russian borders is a threat that Russia seeks to avoid. Deployment of NATO missiles on its periphery reduces reaction time and becomes a permanent threat. For Moscow, erstwhile USSR nations are a buffer which it wants to maintain”. It is this assertion of fear of NATO’s expansion in the proximity of Russia’s western borders, which led to taking this military action to dissuade Ukraine from the influence of NATO.
In this unprecedented military and diplomatic situation, China has expressed solidarity with Russia with the announcement of a “no limits partnership” at the opening ceremony of Winter Olympics. In the voluminous document of joint statement, Russia and China have expressed common understanding and solidarity on the following agenda,
– Russia voiced its support for China’s stance that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposition to any form of independence for the island.
– Moscow and Beijing also voiced their opposition to the AUKUS alliance between Australia, Britain, and the United States, saying it increased the danger of an arms race in the region.
– China joined Russia in calling for an end to NATO enlargement and supported its demand for security guarantees from the West.
– They expressed concern about “the advancement of U.S. plans to develop global missile defence and deploy its elements in various regions of the world, combined with capacity building of high-precision non-nuclear weapons for disarming strikes and other strategic objectives”.
Interestingly, China will wait until prospective economic sanctions are imposed upon Russia. As per Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, “China doesn’t want to really consider or really want to talk about this until Russia has made the move and until we’ve seen the United States and the West impose those sanctions”.
Russia has been Ukraine’s largest trading partner since its evolution, but recently China now tops Russia in its trade with Ukraine. Russia has been continuously trying to bring Ukraine under economic arrangements similar to other CIS countries. China with its influential presence in financial institutions under BRICS is looking forward to minimize the West-oriented institutions like IMF and World Bank. Following the annexation of Crimea in the year 2014 Russia faced unprecedented economic sanctions, which forced it to revisit its strategic and economic relationship with China. Interestingly Russia is primarily an exporter of raw materials and tends to lack access to both advanced industrial technologies and capital; China, on the other hand, is a vast consumer of commodities, particularly oil and gas, and at the same time has catapulted itself into the ranks of technologically advanced nations with an abundance of capital to invest abroad. As per Alexander Gabuev, “The only way Russia can maintain its influence is to recalibrate its role in the region to accommodate its own ambitions, Beijing’s quest for raw materials, and the region’s appetite for Chinese money”. This prospective economic interdependent relationship between the two countries is bringing them together on a common strategic understanding.
Russia has been supporting the Chinese stand on South China Sea dispute, even further in 2016 Russia’s defence forces participated in joint naval exercises in the disputed Sea, and the Chinese always look forward to the support of Russia at international forums in case of the Taiwan conflict escalates.
With all the strategic interest and opportunities, the Russia and China relationship is fundamentally against its Western allies and US although the two countries still are not engaged in any kind of formal security arrangements like NATO both of them have carried out joint military exercises in areas such as Baltic Sea and Russian Eastern frontiers. In the last few years, the world has witnessed these two countries are coming together to exercise their influence in Central Asian and Indo-China regions. It is again strongly believed that China and Russia need each other’s support in face of the US and its Western allies, so it will not be surprising if the current escalation in Ukraine will bring these two countries further closer to each other.