Yes, the saying ‘all is not well’ is pretty much true for BRICS. The 16th annual BRICS summit is to be held in Kazan in Russia later this year. Russian president Vladimir Putin is expected to be the host leader in 2024 but he is expected to encounter a multitude of challenges from his Chinese counterpart in allowing Pakistan attend it. Pakistan is currently a member of the ‘Shanghai Cooperation Organization’ – it joined the economic alliance on 9 June 2017.
Funnily enough, India joined the organization the same date and needless to say, India-Pakistan relations have never been ‘easy’ since the two South Asian titans gained their respective independence in 1947. What makes the dynamics of the Global South more complex is the additional rivalry between China and India. Like the India-Pakistan enmity, the relations between the two most populous countries have also been rocky since the days of the Cold War.
Sino-India rivalry
While Russia, China and India are member states of BRICS, the competition between China and India – which have been intensifying in the recent years – has led to cracks in the alliance. Pakistan recently submitted its own proposal to join BRICS and China is very keen to let India’s ‘troublemaker’ neighbor to join the alliance. In fact, China and Pakistan are old time allies – a position China has always made sure to counter the ‘Indian threat’ from the South as a balance.
Yet, for all that matter, China does appear to be somewhat isolated from the eastern hemisphere. With Japan and South Korea being staunch allies of the US, the Philippines and Taiwan have also taken increasingly anti-China stance. To thwart the Sino-Pakistan alliance, India has taken initiatives in the recent years by forming economic partnerships with the aforementioned pro-US countries even though it is still economically dependent on China in many ways.
In fact, India’s largest imports still come from China. One might think that India is seeking ways to gradually decouple from Chinese economic grip as so many Western countries are attempting to implement. Countries like Japan and South Korea have shifted bilateral trades with Vietnam as an alternative to the Chinese market. Many experts believe that Vietnam can be a major trade hub in the future, even the US is also seeking ties with the south-east Asian nation on which it used napalm bombs about half a century ago.
This is indeed posing a challenge to China as its eastern flanks are not so friendly countries which are taking a united stance against it from both economic and military perspectives. May be Xi Jingping – the incumbent president of PRC – saw the writing on the wall and acted accordingly by visiting Vietnam in December last year. In any case, many might be baffled as to why India and China are not finding ways to mitigate unnecessary disputes over ‘trivial’ border issues and instead strengthen their ties to enhance BRICS partnership in countering Western hegemony.
Because make no mistake, Washington is indeed looking for ways to exploit these vulnerabilities in BRICS. This – of course – falls very much in line with Washington’s ‘divide and conquer’ strategy that has produced favorable outcomes for decades. The question that people should be asking is – are India and China really serious about BRICS alliance? If the answer is yes, then why aren’t they pacifying their issues and getting together on board?
Surely there are intelligent people in both administrations who genuinely want to engage in meaningful dialogue and diplomacy to sort things out like adults, aren’t there? To understand why understandings have not been reached, it is imperative to know about the Sino-Indian border tensions – how and why it started in the first place. Why it is still having such a significant strain on what should have been the most vital partnership between two major world powers.
Sino-Indian border conflict: past, present and future
Even though the British Empire had officially ended, its aftermath effects are still creating problems for people in every part of the world. Most of it come from the demographics borderlines that the British themselves drew in many African countries like Egypt and Sudan as well as the Middle Eastern states. It was an even more difficult case when it come to the borders of British India (or British Raj, as it was popularly referred back in the days).
The British Raj comprised of territories belonging to modern day Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. So naturally, one can perceive the level of complexities of border terrains that happen to be mountainous and rocky. The rulers of British India decided to draw the Ardagh-Johnson Line which bordered Tibet of the Qing Empire. Qing China’s approval was not consulted whatsoever yet the Chinese back then did not have the technological means to withstand any British aggression so they quietly went along with the decision for decades.
Later, in order to avoid any future clashes with the expanding Russian Empire, the English leaders decided to implement the Macartney-MacDonald Line – a pullback from the previous Johnson Line that would give Qing China control over the region of Aksai Chin. To the east, the McMahon Line that borders the Arunachal Pradesh and which the Chinese to this day see as a grave injustice.
The People’s Republic of China has laid claims to Arunachal Pradesh several times in the recent years even though most of the international community have come to accept this part of the world as India’s. Nonetheless, the fact remains that China and India underwent fierce clashes along the ‘Line of Actual Control’ – most notable of them being the 1962 Sino-Indian war in which the PRC – under Mao Zedong’s leadership – won and gained full control over the Aksai Chin area.
However, despite gaining victory even in Arunachal, the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) eventually retreated back to their previous positions along the McMahon Line for fear of drawing the United States into the conflict (rumors are that then president John Kennedy was seriously considering troops to New Delhi in case the Chinese did not halt their advance).
The US assistance back then is still prevalent today, considering how India continues to purchase lethal American drones that facilitate surveillance on Chinese troop movements along the complex terrains of the border. The latest clash to memory was in 2020 which caused losses among high ranking officials in both sides and severely deteriorated the relationships between the two countries for quite a while.
Sino-Pakistan ties
As per the saying ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’, the PRC has had a long time alliance with Pakistan. Just like India, Pakistan’s imports largely come from China, and both of the nuclear armed countries have strong military ties too. China contributed in Pakistan’s nuclear programme and supplied a large number battle tanks to the latter in the past few months.
Moreover, the PRC has also maintained a good balance with the ASEAN countries of south-east Asia and is expanding its ambitions in the Indian Ocean as well. The prominent example in this case would be Maldives, which used to be a very strong Indian ally. However, under the leadership of incumbent Mohamed Muizzu , the archipelagic state has taken a dramatic shift in its foreign policy by pivoting towards China.
Even before becoming prime minister, Muizzu vowed to remove all Indian troops from his country and true to his words, conducted this initiative after coming to power. Taking a page from Maldives’ playbook, Nauru – a country in Oceania – has cut its ties with Taiwan and reinforced relations with China. Therefore, if we take the entire geopolitical climate into account, it’s clear that what’s happening in the Global South is a cold war between India and China where both are attempting to forge as many new ties as possible. If we want to simplify:
- China and Maldives introduce beginnings of new partnerships, with the Maldives newly elected president expelling Indian troops stationed in Maldives.
- Nauru cuts former ties with Taiwan and enhances friendship with China.
- Seeking to minimize US influence in the region, China tries to maintain a sustainable equilibrium with the ASEAN countries.
- China and India are both competing to achieve more influence in Sri Lanka and Nepal.
- India starts playing the hardball game by forming alliance with US-friendly nations: Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines and Japan.
- China wants Pakistan to join BRICS.
Will Russia consent letting Pakistan in?
The Global South Cold War is indeed an interesting scenario but what accomplishments will it give for BRICS itself? The simple answer – none. The complicated answer – India gets to gradually pivot towards the US and West. Despite India’s wish to be a big player in a multi-polar world order with BRICS, the country still very much remains hugely dependent on the US both economically and militarily. India’s largest export partners are in fact the US and EU.
At the same time, India continues to purchase Russian gas at a discount and then sell off the gas to Europe at higher prices – thereby making huge profits. Despite criticisms and pressures from Western nations to stop purchasing Russian fossil fuels, India’s defiance and continual purchase have made Russia very much dependent on the former as well as China during its ongoing war against Ukraine. Even so, Russia cannot please both India and China simultaneously.
At the same time, Russia has no reason to allow Pakistan join BRICS either since Pakistan has worked against Russian interests many times in the past and present. During the Soviet-Afghan war, Pakistan trained and supplied arms to Mujahideen and in modern day, has supplied artillery shells to Ukraine. When former prime minister Imran Khan visited Moscow in 2022 prior to the Russo-Ukraine war, the US orchestrated Khan’s ousting with the help of the Pakistan military. So from Russia’s perspective, letting Pakistan – a hostile country for its interests – join BRICS would be a bad mistake.
In this regard, Russia and India would be happy to cooperate since they have a common eye sore. However, not permitting Pakistan might offend China, and Russia cannot afford to loose either of its two most important partners in the face of already increasing isolation in the world community. So what options does Vladimir Putin have on his plate? To carefully convince his Chinese counterpart Xi Jingping in reforming Sino-Indian ties but even that could prove to be difficult, considering the lack of direct dialogue between officials from the two sides.
India’s approach
India’s foreign minister Jaishankar appears to have a better understanding with US secretary of state Antony Blinken than with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. But for China itself, their diplomats should give more priority to long term solutions than short term outcomes, meaning they should put more efforts into strengthening BRICS and not engage in petty hybrid wars which deteriorate strategic cooperation.
Same goes for India too. Indian diplomats better keep in mind that Pakistani military remains a key offshore research and development hub of the Pentagon – where American defense companies make a fortune via sending F-16 fighter planes. Just as China brokered a truce between Saudi and Iran’s hybrid war last year, it would be good for BRICS itself if South Africa or Russia can maneuver a similar masterstroke between the two Asian titans.
India has tried to maintain a balance between the Eastern and Western blocs and knows that the US needs it right now to counter China’s rise hence, in this regard, India does have a little leverage over the US. India’s close ties with Israel has also prompted the US’ long term plan for creating the ‘India-Middle East-Europe’ corridor – a project that intends to build a gas pipeline from the country through UAE. Saudi Arabia, Israel and finally to European continent. This is to counter China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.
India’s supply of drones to Israel in the midst of the latter committing war crimes in Gaza has also come under scrutiny and criticism from human rights activists. Just like the Sino-Soviet split greatly impaired the Communist bloc and led China right into the arms of the US against the Soviets, the Global South Cold War is gradually weakening BRICS which, again, can damage an emerging multi-polar world and maintain the status quo of the current Western dominance.