For weeks America has bet that a temporary ceasefire in Gaza could be agreed. The implicit deadline was Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting. Now Ramadan is starting—and there is no sign of a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. As a result the Gaza war is entering an unpredictable new phase. The level of violence could subside, but there are scenarios in which it might flare up and expand to the West Bank and the wider region. Of particular note are three potential flashpoints: the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem; the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and whether Israel extends its campaign to Rafah, Hamas’s last major enclave in the strip’s south.
The ceasefire talks appear to have gone nowhere despite multiple rounds of discussions and American pressure. Perhaps three-quarters of Hamas’s fighting capability has been damaged. But the rump of its forces, led by Yahya Sinwar, who is probably holed up in southern Gaza, are reported to be holding out for maximalist demands. In return for a staggered release of Israeli hostages, they are said to be seeking a permanent cessation of fighting in Gaza by the Israel Defence Forces (idf) and potentially a complete exit by it from the enclave, among other things. For Israel and probably America too, that is a non-starter.
What happens next? For many Muslims Ramadan is a time of contemplation and abstention from worldly passions, belligerence included. Still, Hamas hopes it might be a catalytic moment. It has long sought for the war to arouse resistance among all Muslims: “March forward, whether lightly or heavily armed,” said Muhammad Deif, the commander of the group’s military wing, on October 7th: “This is the time.” In a video statement released on March 8th, a spokesperson for the group’s armed wing, Abu Obaida, referred to Ramadan as “the month of victory, the month of jihad”.
Across the globe hundreds of millions will be marking the sundown meal, or iftar, that breaks the daytime fast with a prayer for malnourished Gazans. Many in Gaza, the West Bank, Israel and beyond will have their televisions tuned to Al Jazeera, a satellite channel full of footage of bloodshed in Gaza. In the past surges of violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories have sometimes occurred during Ramadan. There were upsurges of fighting in 1973 and during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982: although they were not caused by Ramadan they happened alongside it. Fighting in 2021 in Gaza erupted after the eviction of four Palestinian families in a neighbourhood near the Old City of occupied East Jerusalem. Hamas launched rockets against Israel.
Whether this Ramadan is calm or not depends in part on three questions. One is the situation at the al-Aqsa mosque. In a sign of its potency as a symbol, Hamas’s code name for its brutal attack on October 7th was al-Aqsa flood. It sits atop the Haram al-Sharif, or Noble Sanctuary, and is known to Jews as the Temple Mount. For Muslims a prayer there during Ramadan is worth far more than prayers offered elsewhere during the year and as a result many are keen to be there. In previous years Israel has allowed Palestinians to enter from the West Bank. But Israel has prevented them from crossing its separation barrier since October 7th. Some Israeli politicians may want to further limit access for the 1.7m Muslim citizens of Israel.
Ahead of prayers on Friday March 15th the degree of access that will be granted is still unclear. On March 8th Israeli police stood in Jerusalem’s Old City alleys, controlling access to the sanctuary, and at the gates turned many away, particularly the young. “If al-Aqsa is full, it will calm things a little,” says Samer Sinjilawi, a Palestinian public figure in East Jerusalem. “If it’s empty people will feel al-Aqsa is in danger and it will inflame.” Basel Naser, who owns a barber shop in the West Bank city of Ramallah, concurs. “Hamas doesn’t tell people to go to al-Aqsa, they go regardless,” he says . “I pray to God that nothing but happens, but if things continue like this a lot of Muslims will be furious, and there will be trouble.”
The second flashpoint is the dire aid situation in Gaza. On March 7th President Joe Biden pledged that America would build a pier to deliver aid by sea to Gaza. That follows American and Arab airdrops of aid. Both show American impatience with Israel’s neglect of its responsibilities towards civilians. There are some signs of improvement. Some humanitarian monitors say 300-500 trucks are entering Gaza daily from Israel, up from an average of 20 during one week last month. Still, others cite much lower figures and a un-backed report says the level of food insecurity is frighteningly high. The distribution of aid within Gaza remains fraught: Israel’s offensive has chased Hamas’s police force away, exposing aid trucks to attack by Palestinians desperate for food. Aid agencies say they cannot operate under fire. While aid ships are being organised, American officials say the port could take two months to build. Were Ramadan to become associated with a surge in civilian starvation, Muslim opinion could be inflamed and international criticism of America and Israel would intensify further.
The final potential flashpoint is Rafah, a city in southern Gaza, and the last major location in which the idf has yet to operate. Some 1.5m people have gathered there for sanctuary. So have the remnants of Hamas. Israel’s war cabinet believes that an invasion is necessary in order to eliminate Hamas. But given Israel’s poor record of provision for civilians, the casualties could be enormous. For now international pressure and Israeli caution have forestalled an operation. Israeli forces have largely withdrawn to Gaza’s periphery and to a corridor south of Gaza city that severs the enclave in two. Commanders have drawn down the number of brigades to a level that analysts say is far short of the force size required to conquer Rafah. Nonetheless, if by the end of Ramadan it becomes obvious that an idf incursion into Rafah might begin, tensions will soar. It could also snap American patience. On March 9th Mr Biden suggested that a Rafah invasion could cross a “red line” for the administration, although he also pledged ongoing support for Israel.
It is still not impossible that a ceasefire could be agreed to. Yet without one, the trajectory of the Gaza war is on full display. It features immense civilian suffering; the survival of Hamas’s leadership; Israel without a strategy for what happens next; and America unable to exert much grip. As Ramadan begins the picture could hardly be bleaker. ■
source : The Economist