by Mian F. Hameed 19 November 2021
In part I, I reasoned, because Pakistan is a bipolar country, i.e., not from the medical point of view, is the cause why the conventional wisdom gets Pakistan wrong to improve the economic quality of life. My rational showed, Pakistan would benefit from a simple economic model, which is the bridge between the people and the institution of Islam that the people are styled after.
The research unfolded in this article requires, I touch upon the concept of the institution of Islam further. Pakistan has the institution that lives through people’s “behavior,” where they in a belief structure are full of belief, do common things, like: fast, jihad, pray, zakat and the required cleanliness, etc. These common things tell us of institutional synergy. It does not mean the people are full of religion.
The belief structure from the institution of Islam has a child—parent institutional relationship. For instance, Zakat (almsgiving) is a child institution, is miraculously woven with the parent institution—the Quran code that people are styled after. Pakistan’s Ehsaas program magnificently benefits from the principle of Zakat in a country otherwise is institutionally deficient on the Western standards.
Nonetheless, what has been ignored in scholarships is what I have claimed in part I: Pakistan’s fall is from the two governance systems running is parallel instituted by the British, is a weakness. This weakness has vast reaches. The parallel system had weakened the intuition of Jihad and the people could not answer to the Ottoman Empire’s call for Jihad.
Muslims have not recovered from the British Raj sabotage. A Pakistani philosopher, a poet and an analytical thinker, the late Dr. Iqbal, noted, and I attempt my unskillful translation here,
Iqbal, your nation has lost its Iqbal (meaning, good fortune.)
Past is quite glorious, but present you have lost.
In part II, I answer the question, can Pakistan rise to economic glory by using conventional economic wisdom prescribed by the modern economic models and its practitioners?
Curiosity should make us ask, the Western economic model after all did work for Pakistan under the leadership of President Ayub Khan in the golden decade of 1960. Why it has failed to work for the last 30 years? The primary reasons are, 1) Pakistani leadership lacking wisdom, 2) Pakistanis lacking faith in a regime, 3) Pakistan ran out of controlling authoritarian regime, and 4) the State’s capability, and in that order.
If these four factors can be worked into an economic model, why then bring into the mix the traces of institutional Islam? Then one might suggest for Islamic institution to remain the “magic pebble” locked in a closet. This question is wishful thinking by examining the four factors.
1) In the case of President Ayub, with a quasi-military rule, he surrendered his duties realizing, he “failed” because of lacking wisdom.
I find wisdom is a mind-altering phenomenon nurtured by scholastics and experiences. A test of wisdom manifests wisdom, if one emerges successful. It is apparent; Pakistani rulers have lacked wisdom. Some are downright thieves.
PM Imran Khan will lack wisdom if he fails to dig Pakistan out of financial crises. This entails, to prevail over the mafia cartel (a few families in politics, rotten industry owners and the highest judges.) All in concert are replicating conditions in Pakistan that of Egypt that ousted Morsi, by worsening the quality of life.
2) The lack of people’s faith in PM Khan, is hyped by propaganda amidst economic inequality among the people and price gouging. Overshadowing Pakistanis’ tolerance and hope is possible by paid mob disobedience and the scruple-less media.
3) The world order not to tis benefit undermines authoritarian control. Lack of wisdom undermines it too. President Ayub Khan had to compromise controlling-authority by offering the often rioting masses concessions from his lack of wisdom that made him pass progressive reforms, abrasive against what the people were “styled after.”
In the case of Musharraf, the survival of his soft authoritarian regime sought legitimacy of IMF and the West. It compromised his soft controlling authoritarian regime as well, and bit the dust.
4) The State’s capabilities (the tangible and the organizational assets) are weakened from a compromised controlling-authority or when it is uprooted, which is the State’s fundamental pillar of governance. President Ayub and Musharraf met the same fate.
The IMF restructuring program is against State possessing capabilities. In the case of Musharraf, the dictator was asked to privatize the State-owned assets (capabilities), which he did. The organizational assets get consistently undermined by the parallel system, politicizing governmental institutions and losing tangible assets. A brewing of chain reaction begins.
Eventually, the undesired authoritarian ruler is compromised from doctrines, like, “the war has changed,” running its course. This is how Musharraf, met his fate.
Rescuing Pakistan is an art, a challenge, and a science that requires a mechanism to enhance the State’s capability urgently under the circumstances. Knowing it is not fashionable to cure Pakistan with Muslim economics, or getting hold of Pakistani liberals with diminished IQs as compared to the liberals of the New Deal with vibrant scholastic ideas.
It might be, the ‘extraterrestrials’ with the right system may very well be a scarcity in Pakistan. Then those ideas must lay in the halls of the Western elite academia that could propose an economic system, is a fallacy.
The mistake Pakistan makes, she has not attempted to realize a workable system. Rather, Pakistan seeks the ‘imports.’ PM Khan desiring to do well by his country, invites them or perhaps are imported for him,
Dr. Sheikh, a World Bank luminary attempted his stint, and without good results;
The NSA head Dr. Moeed Yusuf, a quasi-import has made the social media gossip for meeting a foreign country’s state official of a junior ranking alone at a dinner;
Dr. Bakir, the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, who seems is lacking a magic wand;
Dr. Atif Mian, made the pick of PM Khan’s interest as his economic advisor, but his appointment did not materialize at a shot of bailing Pakistan out of financial crisis.
Hope will let you cling to anything. In my view, these luminaries have adopted Western ideals, is not maverick thinking to exploit the bipolar behavior for a viable solution.
A few may ask; Do I not possess the attributes of an import? To those I say, I am different. For life may not bestow an opportunity, to a shame me of my wisdom.
These luminaries learn from books that flanks all else but the orthodoxy. My school books had begun to place pockets of orthodoxy. I recall, the proponents of currency devaluation, as if it was oxygen for the sickly, seems to remain the IMF’s miracle economic drug.
Bringing luminaries “subservient to power” and promoting “orthodoxy” are no “revisionist intellectuals” of enormity; are a dooms day devices for Pakistan. The Western economic wealth can absorb policy blunders of the “modern intellectuals” at home more so because of their vast resources. Pakistan cannot. –Quotations adopted from Professor Chomsky.
Economic measures prescribed for Greece, and Egypt are a classic case; when luminaries face complexities, they fail. The outfall from Afghanistan has exposed our brain-trust’s total incompetency.
For Pakistan to rely on the current economic models, has instore a vicious circle of debt – The currency will devalue – The external debt will rise. The salient reason is, the marginal improvement of 2-3 percent from economic models in an incompatible system cannot save Pakistan in whole.
My views rely on ground realities, benefitting from scholarships, and here, I provide yet another glimpse of the same unviable approaches to Pakistan by a luminary, Dr. Mian, that MP Khan once sought as his economic advisor.
Dr. Mian was featured In the Atlantic Council sponsored event. Among the luminaries, the question was asked of Dr. Mian, how to get Pakistan out of external debt?
In that debate, the Chief Economist of the Growth Dialogue Dr. Shahid Yusuf, in an intuitive approach, quickly runs down a list of numbers to show where Pakistan economically stands. What will it take for Pakistan to match compared to other countries that have developed capabilities of higher performance, and to get Pakistan out of deficits? Dr. Yusuf sets the stage, and I paraphrase,
Given the population growth at 2.3 percent, Pakistan can’t afford to grow at 3-4 percent per annum, and the productivity growth of 2-3 % in Pakistan and now even lower at 0.6%; he adds,
China, Korea and Taiwan were powerful authoritarian and were able to build up State capability to plan, coordinate and implement to achieve high growth rates. These countries possess attributes, which Pakistan is lacking: Gross domestic investment in China or Korea is about 40 percent or more Vs 14 percent in Pakistan; the structure of economy was led by export manufacturing—in China, the manufacturing sector is over 30%, and in Pakistan 13 percent and falling; export led growth as a share of GDP in China is 30-40 percent Vs Pakistan 10% and less. Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) in China, Taiwan and Singapore is heavily dependent ‘nuts and bolts’ type building technology Vs Pakistan DFI is non-existent; and R&D percent of GDP in China and Korea is 2.12 and 4 percent respectively Vs Pakistan .024 percent. –Source Atlantic Council.
Where are the Pakistani messiahs, the economic prosperity gatekeeps to mirror for you even in a fairy tale, these numbers of the structure of economies that have recognized that human dignity is every person’s right. Else, they are no gladiators, bewildered shepherds destined to reduce the flock, called Pakistan.
Dr. Yusuf now sets the ante: Pakistan’s human capital would score last on the international tests, and turns to Dr. Mian, to devise a solution for how “enlightened” and “authoritarian regime” it may be that must show productivity increases of miraculous proportions to turn around Pakistan.
Would you agree to Dr. Yusuf’s syllogistic premise, “authoritarian regime,” is a faulty one? If yes, then the solution will obviously be faulty. Though, Dr. Yusuf is cognizant of considering factors of analytics, “enlightened and powerful authoritarian” regime before any economic model cloud work. it is important to note the potential risks from Dr. Mian’s proposed solution within a bipolar country.
With Dr. Yusuf’s premise, Dr. Mian, proceeds to apply a top-rated conventional approach, which is a staple diet of contemporary books and schools. Can Dr. Mian emerge as a man of wisdom?
Below I paraphrase Dr. Mian, a Princeton University brain-trust’s analysis,
He would approach to build stuff with productivity, research, and investment […] take agriculture sector, and look at the issue of investment in agriculture […] Hire competent people in place to build institutions […] invest in building of institution that would do research. –Source: Atlantic Council.
If you agree with my foundational assessment in part I, then Dr. Mian will more than likely face an array of challenges from his requirement of forming institutions, including its funding.
To ponder over Dr. Mian requiring institution building for his economic model, revisiting our understanding of institutions is necessary.
Israel lacks all of the Western institutions, but one—her army—Why?
Similarly, from the Western sense, Pakistan also has one institution—the army. But the reasons for both, Israel and Pakistan having one institution are very different.
In Israel, the invisible hand phenomenon, “colonialism, and fear etc.,” are placed intentionally to style the people after. It stops institution-building in its tracks.
Pakistan also has an invisible hand. Politicizing what’s there and the British sabotage. The Western governance system and the people styled after Islamic institution running in parallel, butcher institutions.
The institution of Islam is needed more so for the people of a few provinces that others because of the provinces’ variant behavior structures. For instance, Pashtuns are more institutional in the modern sense than the other provinces. After Pakistan’s independence in 1947, this is the only province where the provincial assembly completed its term.
One does not need to attempt building institutions in Punjab and the Sind provinces. If one does, nuisance just like 1947, will crop up, which is prevalent since to sabotage Pakistan. Today, Punjab’s Justices and the opposition party, and Sind in general are the saboteurs.
Pakistan has the institution of scientific community in nuclear science. The Western methods or Islam may claim its institutional building credit. The statement, “Science is enthusiasm” may deem it a Western institution. Pakistanis may counter it by dealing a royal flush, sits atop all hands. God says, “You will be superior if you are believers,” is enthusiasm. –Surah Al Imran, verse 139. This verse also brought victory to Taliban.
“Believers” is a parcel of an institution, and the verse 139, is not a debt generating workflow. It ties into simplicity and is an un-costly option. The financial costs further ruins building Western institution. It cannot be supported from the impacts from the IMF’s structured program injections of raising taxes, soaring energy prices and devaluation of currency in the midst of insufficient 3% growth.
An acquaintance wrote to me, “Foreign and domestic antibodies have joined hands. We are in a thick of financial crises. PM Khan has drawn swards at the only institution that listened to him.”
Pakistan needs a “Statesmen [… is] one must have lived for it and been long prepared.” When you are ill, you don’t ask for the most handsome man, but you call for a trained physician. Politicians know only to gather votes, but when the “whole state is ill[,] should we not look for the services and guidance of the wisest and the best.” –Pluto. –Source: Pakistan a Dream Gone Sour, by Roedad Khan.
When, President Ayub realized that he had failed because Pakistan was not a sophisticated society for his reforms. He wrote to Gen. Yahya that in order to save the country from “internal disorder and chaos,” it was his constitutional responsibility to save the country. –Source: Id.
Pakistan has to answer, can today PM Khan and the army wash their hands of each other, when a question is posed, what economic solution will save Pakistan?
Part III, utilizes data from the previous two parts to formulate an algorithm so to speak to improve the economic quality of life in Pakistan, and is hoped for the country to come out of the IMF’s restructuring programs.