Fostering optimism that the Middle East may witness peace, the US President Donald Trump recently remarked that the US would pause “any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure” for five days. He asserted that Tehran and Washington are engaged in diplomatic negotiations while Tehran denies having any bilateral talks with Washington. This partly indicates how the war has become prohibitively costly for the US compared to the expected gains from the broad and undefined objectives that the Trump administration pursued. This fate had not been anticipated and the administration failed to reckon with the cost-benefit analysis.

The US and Israel tested the Iranian resilience and resolve in the wake of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah when Iran failed to provide any meaningful protection to its proxies and on the other side, it failed to prevent Assad regime in Syria from falling. In addition to this, Iran’s advance warning to US and Qatar before missiles strikes and divulgence of secrets regarding the nuclear weaponization programme to bring US back to the negotiating table had indicated enough of its weakness to its adversaries. Along with these instances, Iran’s palpably feeble response during the 12 day war in last year June vis-a-vis the joint operation of US and Israel targeted at destroying its nuclear facilities emboldened US President Donald Trump to remark during the current faceoff that to force Iran keel over would be a little excursion. However, the US-Israel joint military campaign that began in February, 28 this year proved how miserably the calculations of these powers went wrong. The Trump administration proposed a supplementary fund of $200 billion for the current war in the Middle East indicating that the war was costly enough and it was to last for an uncertain future ahead. The initial judgement that the military operation would be short-lived and surgical one to push Iran to the precipice of a regime change turn on its head and Iran defied to be Venezuela 2.0.

The US and Israel stuck to a strategy of decapitation of leaders representing Iran’s political and military strength. Second, they tried to destroy the country’s nuclear and military strength as much they could. They have been largely successful in doing so. However, the US was paying a heavy price in each step towards knocking out Iran’s missile and drone launching capabilities and keep the Strait of Hormuz open for free passage of natural resources.

Iran, in spite of assassination of its key leaders ranging from IRGC to intelligence carried out missile and drone attacks around the Middle East in its quest for identity, martyrdom and survival. The outcomes of Iran-Iraq war of 1980 which began just a year after Islamic Revolution and continued for 8 years still inspire the soldiers and volunteers to fight the war without any signs to cave in. That war had provided strong foundation and overarching identity to the clerical regime by dismantling internal fissures. Its evoked a sense of martyrdom among the Iranians by fighting against external enemies and dying for the regime. This strong sense of martyrdom is pushing the Iranians ahead with the war unfazed by the horrors of capitulation or consideration of surrender. Iran adopted a decentralized strategy of warfare in which it primarily aimed at striking the American military and diplomatic presence and knocking out energy infrastructure, airports, hotels and tourist facilities in the Middle East to build pressures against the US by sabotaging peace and stability of the Gulf states thereby disturbing the security equation between the US on the one hand and Gulf states, on the other. The current war in the Middle East demonstrated the criticality of the supplies of oil and natural gas to world market that drive the engines of human civilization. Iran adopted a shrewd strategy of containing its supply to the US, Israel and their allies whereas facilitating it to win friends and dissuading countries from piling up international pressures. It also earned revenues by allowing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

The Rising Cost of the War

The toll of conflict on the US military and its taxpayers is stark: in just initial 100 hours of the war, 168 Tomahawk cruise missiles—each priced at $3.6 million—have been expended, outpacing production. Over the preceding five years, only 322 Tomahawks were manufactured, a sobering disparity that underscores the strain on resources. The navy will be feeling this expenditure for several years- a source grimly noted, highlighting the long shadow of war on military reserves.

Iran’s strategic strikes have sent shockwaves across the Middle East, hitting military and energy infrastructure with precision. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain was hit, destroying two AN/GSC-52B SATCOM terminals, crippling communication networks. A $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 early warning radar in Qatar was also targeted, showcasing Iran’s ability to disrupt critical defense systems.

The AN/TPY-2 radar facilities, the eyes and ears of the vaunted yet staggeringly expensive THAAD system, have been hit with precision – in Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base, Al Ruwais in the UAE, Al Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi, and Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. These strikes underscore the vulnerability of critical defense assets in the Middle East highlighting the strategic blow to regional security architecture.

Iran’s Shahed-136 drones, costing a mere $35,000 each, have flipped the script, leaving a trail of destruction and rewriting the rules of engagement. Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, grimly notes that these one-way strikes have accounted for the majority of U.S. casualties – 140 troops wounded, a stark testament to the shifting sands of warfare.

In a move underscored by shifting global priorities, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung confirmed the possible relocation of air defense assets to the Middle East. THAAD launchers are being discreetly redeployed to Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, 70km south of Seoul, with interceptor missiles bound for a new front – a strategic recalibration that resonates far beyond Korean shores

Pivoting Away from Credible Russian and Chinese Threats

Although China and Russia are not coming out openly in support of their strategic partner, Iran as the way many international observers would have liked to believe apart from diplomatic censure, precision of Iranian attacks and the impacts of its strikes on military and civilian targets in the Middle East led many analysts to believe that such effectiveness of Iranian strikes would not have been possible without the Russian and Chinese hand behind it. There are reports which point to Russian assistance to Iran in terms of sharing of satellite imagery and intelligence about military targets in the Middle East. Both China and Russia seek to benefit from the war without getting directly involved in it. Even if they might be helping Iran, their assistance would have been covert enough to become noticeable. Russia remains already snarled in its protracted invasive operations in Ukraine. On the contrary, it has squandered enough of its resources just to bring 20 percent of Ukrainian territory under its occupation. It is well-known how Iran came to Russian help and supplied Shahed missiles to stick against Ukraine. Nevertheless, both Russia and China see the current war in the Middle East as diversion of key American resources and attention away from Europe and Indo-Pacific theatres respectively towards emasculating Iran and defending the Gulf countries. In this sense, the more military and financial resources that the US would lose, the more would be strategic benefits for Russia and China in their respective regions of dominance.

Russia also sees an opportunity to sell more of its oil if the oil price shores up. As the energy resources from the Gulf region faces difficulties in passage with the closing down of the Strait of Hormuz  and there is a slash in production, Russia expects to sell its oil and natural gas with sanctions relief from the US which is already happening. China looks forward to Trump-Xi Summit for materialization of a grand bargain which has already been delayed due to the war. Hence, by lending open support to Iran, China does not want to hamper its trade and diplomatic interest. However,  by acting as a silent bystander, it is indirectly benefitting from the war with the squandering of American resources and diversion of attention from Taiwan, South China Sea and larger Indo-Pacific region. Both Russia and China also do not want to sour their relations with the Gulf countries by openly throwing their weight behind Iran. Washington’s persistent concerns about the China’s geopolitical heft in the Indo-Pacific region and Russia’s revanchist ambitions turning it into a credible threat to Europe had to take a backseat and on the contrary, they became recipients of unexpected benefits as the US was poised to relocate its military resources from the European and Indo-Pacific fronts to the invigorate the war in the Middle East.

Many military observers previously claimed that Iran’s days to project its power in the region were numbered and its debacle was inevitable in its fight against the most advanced military powers- the US and Israel. President Trump claimed many times that the US had already won the war while the war continued unabated. It became, however, concerning that these powers might attain their undefined and hazy objectives but only after paying a stiff price in terms of their military and financial resources, human casualties and pushing other significant geopolitical interests to the periphery. The Trump administration’s desperation to pause the war signal that the objectives that the administration seeks to pursue have been overwhelmed by the accumulated costs.