Despite communication strategies being exercised by the most powerful, US and Israel in their war against Iran, they appear to have been totally miscalculated. This is marked by a few key facts. They had apparently expected that Iran- with its “limited power”- would not be able to display much strength against the power of their strikes. This assumption has collapsed as Iran is displaying no chance of giving up. They were also not prepared for Iran’s attacks on Israel and US bases in the Gulf. Neither were probably Gulf allies of US. Paradoxically, Iran’s attacks have also exposed the limitations of so-called multi-layered “security” arrangements prepared by US and Israel. The impact of Iran’s attacks on US bases in Gulf and in Israel also seems to have shocked the two powers and apparently greater part of the world. They weren’t probably prepared for this nature of response. The war has exceeded 12 days and has entered the third week. Last year, the war against Iran lasted 12 days. US was moved to call for a ceasefire when it stretched for this period. There is no knowing as to how long will the present war last.
There is yet another angle to this ongoing war/crisis which has probably not been totally deliberated upon. Some importance has certainly been given to role of US and Israeli intelligence agencies which led to assassination of Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This has been viewed by certain sections as due to decades spend by Israeli secret services (Mossad) and around six months by US intelligences services, including CIA. This point can certainly not be questioned. But whether it is the question of decades, months or simply weeks/days spend by these intelligence services, it remains puzzling as to how did they fail to give substantial importance to missile-power of Iran, that has certainly stunned the whole world. Where did these “intelligence agencies” err? Or perhaps they chose not to give enough importance to this strength of Iran?
The preceding point only suggests that they chose to bank on the strength of their power by giving it substantial importance and without choosing to adequately gauge the striking potential of Iran. The latter point also suggests that they presumed Iran to be too “weak” to give them a strong fight. In other words, their communication strategies seem to have banked only on their own strength and not on adequately studying that of Iran. Or perhaps they may have given some or even substantial importance to deliberating on this aspect but definitely fell short of judging its power adequately. The impact of Iranian strikes on US bases in the Gulf and in Israel certainly indicates this.
It is also possible, over-confidence of US and Israel in achieving total victory against Iran blinded them from adequately considering the retaliation that they may have to face. Over-confidence speeded by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desire to rush against Iran also seems to have prevented them from taking into full account the aftermath of what they were heading for. In other words, they appear to have fallen short of estimating the retaliatory strength of Iran because of several reasons.
The assumption that Iran was too weak for them was also assumed as probably key contributor to their easy “victory” which still doesn’t seem within their easy reach. Iran is showing no chances of yielding as and when desired by US. Undeniably, US President Donald Trump has not failed to keep claiming the degree of success achieved by US and Israel against Iran. And yet, he has failed to take any specific stand on whether the war is going to end soon or not. The longer the war lasts also indicates the capability of Iran to withstand strikes of US and Israel. In addition, the hard fact- as pointed earlier- that Iran is not refraining from striking at Israel and US bases cannot be ignored. This simply also suggests that Iran has not collapsed as yet. Now, with recent reports pointing to Iranian forces striking against Israel in coordination with militant groups in the region is an indicator of their being in an aggressive posture which was probably not even considered by Trump and Netanyahu.
Give a thought, US chose to strike against Iran while being engaged in negotiations with it hardly suggests the kind of policy of Washington was considering towards Tehran. The explanation is simple. Trump had no option but to yield to what Netanyahu desired. Considering Netanyahu’s limited diplomatic credibility – which he seems to measure only by Israeli strikes in the region- Trump has apparently erred in assuming that his stand against Iran would also have similar impact. In other words, Iran was probably expected to weaken as have Syria and Lebanon in the past.
US and also Israel erred by not giving at least some importance to communication strategies of Iran and Gulf nations in the region. Iran has certainly not been caught ill-prepared by decision of US and Israel to start war against it. This had to begin sooner or later. Recent years have also been witness to Iran given importance to improving its diplomatic ties with countries in the region. Undeniably, Arab/Gulf allies of US are extremely angry at US, for their diplomatic stand being virtually ignored by Trump. They were against war with Iran. But now that it has begun, they are also not pleased by Iranian strikes in their land. At the same time, chances of their being dragged into an open conflict with Iran are practically non-existent. Trump appears to have lost their trust. The question of their ever trusting Israel apparently doesn’t prevail. The question is not that of simply war coming to an end but also that of Trump’s “diplomacy” being considered seriously. It may be, but chances of their being any stability and seriousness in Trump’s “diplomacy” and/or “diplomatic trap/illusion” are limited.
Besides, the refusal/failure of US allies to yield to Trump’s demand to send their warships to Strait of Hormuz to keep it “open and safe” bears its significance. Whatever may claims of Trump’s regarding “success” against Iran, there is little doubt US-Israel-Iran war appears to have severely punctured his communication diplomacy!
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