Regional Politics in South Asia appear at a crossroads. India has been commonly regarded as a regional hegemon like an “Indian Elephant” whose sheer size, population, and economic weight lend it a regional leadership role. However, looking back at certain historical events, military clashes, alliances, and political developments in India’s politics over the past few years, India’s role as a regional leader, or rather superpower, in South Asia is put into question. By looking into the details of these scenarios, it becomes more difficult to justify India’s role as a stabilizing regional superpower. Major losses for India in military conflicts against Pakistan have left many questioning India’s stability as a country. Communalization of Indian politics, Hindu nationalism, has threatened many lives, especially Muslims in India. India’s recent alliances with Western countries and its partnership with Russia and China have somewhat isolated India diplomatically during sensitive military situations.

South Asian Regional Hegemon

India’s foothold as a regional power stems from its victory against Pakistan in the war of 1971, which resulted in the independence of Bangladesh. Respect was gained, but fear was instilled among South Asian countries of India’s growing power. In the 1980’s, Indira Gandhi, then Prime Minister of India, stated during an interview with BBC Hindi that “India can never compare itself with the seven or eight countries of South Asia.” India’s air superiority was disrupted in 1998 when Pakistan finally succeeded in its nuclear test program, conducting its first successful test that year. By developing nuclear weapons, Pakistan was able to level the playing field against India. Since then, South Asia has been transformed into a nuclearized region with two regional powers that wouldn’t allow each other to overthrow them using conventional military power.

The geopolitical situation around the world drastically changed after the attacks of September 11th, 2001. The United States, along with most of its Western allies, shifted its focus to terrorism. India played its cards smartly by leveraging the “terrorism card.” India, along with most of South Asia, labeled most of their internal strife as terrorism, which allowed India to have full control of the region while receiving international support by simply categorizing their rivals as terrorists.

BJP won in India in 2014

India also polarized along communal lines after the BJP defeated the Congress party in the 2014 Indian general election. India was seen by Western countries as a secular country when it was ruled by the Congress Party. However, once the BJP came into power, it started pushing the nationalism agenda, fueling further polarization between Hindus and Muslims in India.

India-Bangladesh Relations

In Bangladesh, India has had indirect rule for more than one decade. Critics might argue that India has strong, influential ties with Bangladesh, which somehow restricts Dhaka's ability to make vital policy decisions. Bangladesh had put all its eggs in one basket named India. Political parties in Bangladesh ruled using the tried and tested recipe of labeling all opponents as extremists/terrorists, which fuels Bangladesh's internal politics.

India-Pakistan Militarized Conflict

India and Pakistan both have nuclear powers and are constantly at each other’s throats. In 2019, a group of Kashmiri freedom fighters attacked an Indian army camp in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the death of 40 Indian soldiers. In response to that, India started air strikes in Pakistan's territories without officially declaring war. Pakistan, in response, launched air strikes of its own and shot down an Indian pilot in his aircraft. Pakistan captured India’s Wing Commander Abhinandan, who was later famously released by Pakistan, showcasing great sportsmanship.

The same scenario repeated itself in the year 2025 when unidentified gunmen opened fire at a civilian convoy in Kashmir Valley’s Pahalgam district, in which many civilians were killed. India blatantly accused Pakistan and responded with missile and air strikes. Pakistan responded with full strength, shooting down multiple Indian fighter jets and capturing an Indian pilot. Pakistan’s response came as a shock to India, which wasn’t expecting such an accurate military response. Pakistan had successfully shot down Indian jets with the help of Chinese advanced technology. Pakistan has improved its air warfare capabilities with technologically advanced fighter jets like the JF-17 Thunder, state-of-the-art missiles, and even electronic warfare aircraft.

Pakistan receives help from its all-weather ally, China

Pakistan has strong military and strategic ties with China, which also conducts joint military drills with Pakistan. India has strong strategic ties with the US, Russia, and the QUAD alliance. Russia, though, maintains good relations with India and also exports military equipment to Pakistan. The US also seems to care less about India, as it has shifted its foreign policy toward maintaining stability and preventing conflict rather than taking sides. 

Bangladesh turns towards Pakistan and China

The above-mentioned points can be taken as both Bangladesh’s strengths and weaknesses. Bangladesh always feared Pakistan before due to its weak economy and military. Bangladesh has always had a non-alignment policy towards Pakistan, but now that Pakistan has risen greatly, and China has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan. Bangladesh can benefit from this shift in power by diversifying its policies and moving closer to Pakistan.

New generations taking over Bangladesh politics will have a different perspective on how policy should be made, and Bangladesh should stop falling back on Cold War tactics and adopt policies that address the new generation’s needs.