While global attention is fixed on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, a more monumental scheme is taking place. The United States is shifting to a complete “global maritime blockade of China” strategy, the goal being to target China’s most sensitive economic artery: the Strait of Malacca. This is a 900 km long, narrow waterway in Southeast Asia between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. 

As far as China is concerned, the Strait of Malacca is a “choke point” in every aspect. Nearly 80% of its oil trade passes through this narrow gap between Indonesia and Malaysia. The strait may be defined as the jugular vein of the Chinese economy, controlling 30% of global maritime trade and transiting 25 million barrels of oil per day before the current blockade. The United States has understood that controlling this waterway means it can gain a very significant grasp on China’s trade routes. 

At present, we are witnessing the groundwork being laid. The U.S. has recently signed new defense pacts with Indonesia, pushed for overflight rights and strengthened ties with Malaysia. It would be erroneous to consider these endeavors as mere friendly outreaches. The U.S. is strategically moving ahead to build a security net around China’s trade routes. 

To the U.S., the ongoing tensions in the Middle East’s Strait of Hormuz are serving as an experimental exercise by demonstrating how much power can be gained by trying to control a narrow waterway. Washington is beginning to apply these lessons to the Pacific. The ultimate goal remains the same: contain China by dominating the seas.  The United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) has been targeting Iranian tankers from the Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia.  China currently faces four “high risk zones” : Hormuz, Malacca, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. As far as the the U.S. strategy is concerned, a blockade of the Strait of Malacca would cripple Chinese factories and leave its cities without fuel. 

China’s reaction has been to fight back by building pipelines through Russia and Central Asia but land routes cannot handle the massive volume of sea trade.  Ultimately, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is just the opening act. By targeting the Strait  of Malacca, the U.S. is signaling that the “freedom of the seas” may soon only apply to its allies. 

China, like Iran, has begun to understand the U.S.’s global energy game. With its naval blockades, the U.S. is attempting to crush the energy resilience of a large portion of Asia, while forcing its allies to buy oil and gas exclusively from U.S. markets.  The head of INDOPACOM, Admiral Samuel Paparo gave the game away in stating, “I affirm the ability of the United States increasingly to be a net energy provider also in the Indo-Pacific to escape the vulnerability of those key chokepoints.” Essentially, the U.S. 7th Fleet patrols the waters in the region around the Strait of Malacca.  

The potential outcomes of an increased U.S. presence to interrupt Chinese trade, often called the “Malacca Dilemma” would have far-reaching outcomes for global stability. 

  1. Economic Shockwaves

China is the number one oil importer in the world. Approximately 80% of its oil and 60% of its total maritime trade passes through the strait. Any disruption would lead to an energy crisis in China, forcing it to rely on reserves and land-based pipelines from Russia and Central Asia. 

There would also be a global supply chain collapse as 30% of global maritime trade passes through the strait. A blockade would not only impact China but also major U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea. 

  1. Military and Geopolicical Escalation 

As mentioned, as the U.S. has strengthened its position through a defense pact with Indonesia, China has responded with its “string of pearls” strategy. It has invested in a network of ports and increased its naval presence in the Indian Ocean. 

  1. Regional Responses: The Littoral States 

The littoral states of Indonesia and Malaysia cooperate with the U.S. on maritime security and counter-piracy, but are very wary of an international crossfire between two global powers in the strait. Both countries have maintained categorically their position that the strait must remain an international waterway open to all. 

China’s countermeasures

China has built massive pipelines through Myanmar and Central Asia/Russia to bypass the sea entirely as a countermeasure, a survival route in case of a maritime blockade.  Furthermore, if Malacca is blocked, China can utilize the straits of Lombok and Sunda in Indonesia. 

The Gaping Holes in the U.S. Strategy 

The global economy being so integrated, the U.S. strategy of “crippling” China would cause a global depression and be disastrous for the U.S., too.  The U.S. depends heavily on Chinese goods and an interruption of trade would cause American factories to lose their components within weeks. 

As seen in the recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, even minor disruptions to a major chokepoint leads to global energy prices to skyrocket almost instantly. This is detrimental to the U.S. and its allies as much as, if not more than the intended target. 

As far as the United States is concerned, it understands that an economic war with China is a double-edged sword, but it is a gamble it is determined to take. For U.S. planners, despite the risk of global market chaos and maritime standoffs, the obsessive focus against all odds is to prevent China from controlling and using the most vital trade routes. 

On the chess board, the U.S. is moving the pieces by building new alliances and shifting supply chains. The goal is to be the ones standing should a collision occur, as imperfect and disruptive as that may be.