In a region characterised by frequent conflicts due to India’s aggressive policies and hegemonic designs, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) stood out as a beacon of hope. Former US President Dwight Eisenhower described it as “one bright spot… in a very depressing world picture that we see so often.” Until recently, the Treaty withstood two major wars, multiple military crises and conflicts between Pakistan and India.

However, India’s unilateral decision on 23 April 2025 to place the IWT in abeyance, in the aftermath of a false-flag operation in Pahalgam, threatens the integrity of an internationally recognised, rare symbol of cooperation.India's action is a violation of international law and places Pakistan’s agriculture, livelihood and regional stability in danger. These concerns were shared by the speakers at the International Seminar on IWT: An Instrument of Peace and Regional Stability held at Jinnah Convention Centre in Islamabad on 30 June 2026. The speakers unequivocally rejected India’s use of water as a political tool against Pakistan, calling India’s illegal unilateral action an attempt to undermine the most successful example of transboundary water sharing.  

India’s weaponisation of water against Pakistan began on 1 April 1948, when it halted water supply from the Central Bari Doab and Deepalpur canals to Pakistan’s Punjab. The water crisis highlighted the existential threat India posed to Pakistan’s national security. The magnitude of the threat was recognised by the international community, and, in 1960, after nine years of prolonged negotiations, the IWT was signed under the auspices of the World Bank.

The IWT divided the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. Under Articles II and III of the Treaty, the three eastern rivers, i.e., Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, are allocated to India. On the other hand, the three western rivers, i.e., Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, are reserved for Pakistan. Pakistan is entitled to the “unrestricted use” of the water of the western rivers, and India’s rights on the western rivers are limited to “non-consumptive” uses, and it is obligated to ensure water flow continues downstream without any interference or hindrance.

However, India has persisted in building hydropower projects that violate Pakistan’s Treaty rights. Pakistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ishaq Dar, at the Islamabad international seminar, highlighted that currently India is pursuing 17 projects that will drastically alter the Indus river system as a whole and would give New Delhi the “tools for hydro-hegemony.” Indian government’s decision to put the Treaty in abeyance is a violation of the IWT as it contains no provisions allowing parties to unilaterally withdraw, suspend or put the IWT in abeyance. This position was explicitly affirmed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in its 2025 award on competence regarding the IWT. However, India continues to violate the Treaty and disregard the Court’s Award.

The Indian actions should be understood within the broader context of New Delhi’s longstanding hegemonic ambitions and adversarial relations with Pakistan. As an upper riparian state, India enjoys a geographical advantage, allowing it to control the timing and volume of water flows into Pakistan. During the period of heightened tensions, New Delhi has on several occasions threatened to cut water or initiate projects that raise Islamabad’s apprehensions. Despite customary international law’s position that an upper riparian state has no right to stop the flow of water to a lower riparian state, India has initiated several hydropower projects on the Chenab and the Jhelum tributaries that would diminish water flow to Pakistan.

Pakistan is an agrarian country, and water is a matter of survival for it. Pakistan relies on the Indus Basin for nearly 80 per cent of its irrigation water and generates almost one-third of its electricity from it. According to the World Wildlife Fund Pakistan, the country’s annual per capita water availability plummeted from 5,600 cubic metres in 1947 to just 930 cubic metres in 2023, below the level conventionally defined as water scarcity, which, according to a UNESCO 2002 study under the International Hydrological Programme, is defined as 1,000 m3 per person per year.

The New York Times of 24 April 2025 reported that if India were to unilaterally withhold or divert water, Pakistan's farming heartlands in Punjab and Sindh could face up to a 35 per cent reduction in water availability during critical growing seasons. Agriculture accounts for roughly 25–30 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP and employs nearly half the labour force. The theft of Pakistan’s share of water by India under the IWT will therefore have dire implications for Pakistan’s agriculture, food security and economy.

For these reasons, Pakistan has kept all options on the table to prevent India from stealing its rightful share of water under the IWT. In this context, it is important to recall that, soon after India’s announcement of placing the Treaty in abeyance in April 2025, Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) warned India that attempts to reduce or divert Pakistan’s allocated waters will be “considered as an act of war and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.” This sentiment has also been echoed in Pakistan’s political discourse in the past. In 2016, a Senate Standing Committee recommended that any unilateral IWT violation be treated as an act of war, and that security forces “must be ready to launch surgical strikes on Indian water installations.”

To offset the effects of India’s water coercion, Pakistan could take the following measures: (i) Improve internal water management infrastructure and storage systems, as it receives 80 per cent of its water during four months of monsoon season and has a total water storage capacity for 30 days against the international standard of 120 days; (ii) Adopt drip irrigation for efficient utilisation of water, as agriculture accounts for over 90 per cent of Pakistan’s fresh water use, while globally countries on average utilise 70 per cent of their freshwater for agriculture; and (iii) Apply high-density geomembrane lining on canal system to prevent 40 to 50 per cent loss of surface irrigation water due to seepage and spillage.

Water is the basic necessity of life, and the shortage of water increases political pressure on governments to act, which can in turn aggravate interstate tensions. In a volatile and nuclearised South Asia, theft of Pakistan’s share of water under the IWT by New Delhi could prove to be a nuclear flashpoint, especially when national survival is at stake. India’s persistent disregard of international norms and obligations has demonstrated its unreliability as a responsible state and poses a grave threat to regional strategic stability and international peace and security.