Every year World Environment Day is a call to action to protect ecosystems and enhance climate resilience. In the context of South Asia, the Indus Basin highlights the interdependence of environmental sustainability, water governance, and geopolitical stability.World Environment Day is a reminder that environmental sustainability is part of human development and security.Water is the hub of this connection.Access to water is essential to every ecosystem, agricultural system, economy, and community.Water is a flexible substance that can be used for many things, but has the potential to cause a lot of problems at both the national and international level.The world is facing a rapidly changing climate and worsening environmental degradation.This has led to water resource governance emerging as one of the most pressing challenges of the twenty-first century.

This is especially critical in South Asia. Climate change, combined with increased temperature, irregular precipitation, and glacial melting, is intensifying already fragile water systems. At the same time, increasing water demand is further intensifying this stress. In this context, the Indus basin is one of the most strategically important and environmentally sensitive transboundary river basins in the world. The Indus Basin is shared by Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan. The basin is home to almost 268 million people in the region covering an area of 1.11 million km2. It provides for agriculture, energy production, biodiversity, and public health. This recent confusion over the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has thus raised concerns beyond geopolitics. In an era of changing hydrological patterns due to climate change, the weakening of institutional arrangements for water cooperation may intensify the already strained water ecosystem. The process of water governance in transboundary river basins is influenced by a combination of complex hydrological, climatic, socio-economic and political issues. Conflict is more likely to involve lower riparian interests than upper riparian interests in transboundary waters.

A treaty in turmoil

On 19 September 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed by India and Pakistan, mediated by the World Bank. It was once considered to be one of the most enduring water-sharing agreements in the world. Signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan. The treaty endured wars, military crises and many years of political animosity. Under the terms of the agreement, the eastern rivers, namely the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej, were all granted to India, whereas the western rivers the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab were mainly allotted to Pakistan. It also set up the Permanent Indus Commission for technical cooperation and resolution of disputes.

The treaty offered a degree of predictability and institutional stability for over 60 years in an area of geopolitical tensions. But the treaty is under increasing pressure from shifting environmental conditions and strained politics. India declared in April 2025 that it would put the treaty in abeyance due to the escalating tensions between the two countries. The transfer triggered water security issues in Pakistan and the future of institutional water cooperation in the basin. Most significantly, it revealed the fragility of governance systems for water in a climate-changed and stressed area.

The basin is undergoing a changing climate

The Indus basin is under several environmental stresses. Hydrological systems are changing across the region due to increasing temperatures, changing monsoons, groundwater depletion, deforestation and land degradation. These changes are altering long term water availability and stability. One of the most alarming phenomena is the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers that are a vital source of freshwater for the Indus River System. The Himalayas are home to 3rd highest concentration of ice in the world after Antarctica and Greenland. Research shows that more than 80% of the water draining through the Indus River system, which irrigates much of the agricultural land in Pakistan, comes from Himalayan glaciers. The rate of retreat in these glaciers is estimated at 30-50m per year. Glaciers occupy about 16,933 square kilometers in the northern part of Pakistan. Although short-term increased river flow due to accelerated melting is welcomed, future water availability and hydrological stability is at risk with glacier loss.

The frequency of extreme weather is also a new feature of climate change. Pakistan has already experienced devastating floods in 2022 and prolonged droughts in recent years. It has also experienced a shift in precipitation patterns, which are still influencing agricultural production and infrastructure. The developments show the interdependence of environmental security and water governance. The challenge is no longer just about managing the existing water resources. It is gearing up for a period of heightened water uncertainty. As Secretary- General of the UN Boutros-Ghali said in 1991, “The next war will be fought over water, not politics.”

Why the Indus Basin matters to Pakistan

As mentioned by the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and its water resources are under growing strain due to climate-related factors, inefficient management practices, and increasing demand. The reliance on the Indus River System is structural, not accidental, affecting the economy, food systems and ecological stability of the country. The Indus River System has a coverage area of around 1.1 million square kilometers and is made up of seven major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej and Kabul. The majority of these rivers begin in the Himalayas, pass through the territories of India and finally reach Pakistan, which is a lower riparian state and is significantly affected by the hydrological conditions prevailing in the upstream territories. Pakistan's dependence on this basin is very high. Around 80% of the country’s available water resources are used for agriculture, while agriculture itself accounts for roughly 92% of total national water withdrawals. The Indus Basin Irrigation System is also the world's largest single irrigation system, serving millions of rural people and serving as the backbone of national food production.

This dependency has economic consequences. Cotton, one of Pakistan’s major cash crops, relies heavily on irrigation from the Indus system and contributes more than 60% of national exports as well as approximately 8.5% of GDP. Water insecurity impacts not only food security, but also employment, export revenues, and overall economic development. The average annual water consumption in Pakistan is 56 to 80 million acre-feet (MAF), whereas in India, the estimated water consumption is between 28 and 33 MAF in the same basin. This imbalance is a testament to Pakistan's structural dependence on river water from outside its borders, and the need for water governance that is predictable and reliable for long-term stability. The implications are not limited to agriculture and exports. Water scarcity has direct consequences on drinking water supply, sanitation systems and public health, and it also limits hydropower production, which relies on a steady water flow in the river. Water fluctuations can also affect ecological systems like wetlands and riverine biodiversity.

The need for modernized water governance

The spirit of the agreement was created in an era before climate change became a significant policy issue, and it does not fully address current environmental problems. Typically, water is not the cause of war, but it has most often been a tool, a target, or a victim of warfare. The treaty contains limited provisions relating to climate adaptation, environmental flows, groundwater management, or ecosystem conservation. However, these challenges now form the core of the water security discussions in the region. The experts are now demanding more than water allocation, a shift to wider basin-level environmental management in the future. This would involve a climate adaptation strategy, real-time exchange of hydrological data, better flood forecasting, groundwater monitoring, and enhanced scientific collaboration. A platform like SAARC and SCO can be utilized to discuss water management issues with wider participation of regional and international experts.Such measures would benefit both countries because rivers do not follow political boundaries.Environmental degradation in one part of the basin ultimately affects the entire system. Environmental cooperation does not resolve all political issues, it can, however, lower ecological risks for millions of inhabitants on either side of the border. The future of the Indus Basin will not only rely on legal treaties, but also adaptive governance, scientific collaboration and environmental care.