Trump-Modi ties hinge on sealing high-stakes September meeting

WASHINGTON — The strained relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — a bond that had been close since Trump’s first term — is threatening a trip by Trump to India this year and casting a pall over the broader strategy toward China.

The development means that a potential meeting between the two leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this month has taken on greater importance.

“We get along with India very well. But you have to understand, for many years it was a one-sided relationship,” Trump said at the White House on Tuesday. “India was charging us tremendous tariffs. About the highest in the world.”

“They would send in massive — you know, everything they made, they would send [to the U.S.],” he added.

On Monday, Trump said on social media that India has “now offered to cut their Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago.”

On Aug. 27, as part of sanctions against Russia, the U.S. imposed additional “secondary tariffs” of 25% on India because of its purchases of Russian oil. Along with the additional 25% tariff that was already in place, India now faces a total rate of 50% — among the highest in the world alongside Brazil.

“India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the U.S.,” he said on social media, referencing New Delhi’s historically close economic and military ties with Moscow.

Signs of strain had already been apparent. A June 17 phone call between Trump and Modi regarding the May ceasefire between India and Pakistan — which had engaged in armed clashes — was another flashpoint, according to The New York Times. Trump reportedly boasted that he was to thank for the ceasefire, implicitly urging Modi to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Modi, however, told Trump that his mediation “had nothing to do with the recent ceasefire,” effectively rejecting the suggestion.

At the time, Pakistan praised U.S. mediation as constructive and announced its intention to nominate Trump for the Nobel Prize, one of his longstanding ambitions. Modi faced domestic criticism — opposition parties and others blasted U.S. mediation as unnecessary, saying it ignored past agreements that India-Pakistan disputes would be resolved bilaterally.

Modi was the fourth leader to be invited to the White House in Trump’s second term after the heads of Israel, Japan and Jordan. At their face-to-face meeting in February, Modi said, “One thing that I appreciate and I learned from President Trump is that he keeps the national interest supreme,” but the relationship between the two men has since soured.

The U.S. had been warming to India as part of a strategy to drive a wedge between New Delhi and Moscow, as well as to counterbalance China. But India is set to host a leaders summit of the Quad — a grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. — and Trump does not plan to attend, according to a New York Times report.

The growing rift between the U.S. and Indian leaders is also a blow to Japan, which had prioritized the Quad as a means of deterring China in the Indo-Pacific. Trump in his second term is expected to maintain a focus on the “free and open Indo-Pacific” advocated by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The U.S.-India tension may also affect efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine. On Monday, Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tianjin, China. Putin is expected to visit India in December, his first trip there in four years, and the topic is thought to have come up during their meeting. If India continues to purchase Russian oil, it will effectively finance Moscow’s war effort.

Both the U.S. and India have been working to arrange a leaders meeting on the sidelines of the General Assembly meeting in New York this month. A former senior Indian government official said such a summit was needed to reset the bilateral relationship.

If such a meeting does not materialize, U.S.-India ties will likely continue to languish, impacting the broader international community.

The article appeared in asia.nikkei