Farmers protest at the Haryana-Punjab state border at Shambhu in Patiala, north of New Delhi, in February 2024 (Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images)VANI SWARUPA MURALI

The Trump administration has announced a doubling of tariffs on India to 50 per cent, with a 21 day window for further negotiations over its trade with Russia. President Donald Trump has also ruled out further talks on a wider trade deal with India until tensions are resolved.

While India’s continued purchases of Russian oil remains a stumbling block, it is far from the only one. The US insistence on accessing India’s agriculture, dairy and fishery market has been a longstanding point of discord in the trade negotiations. The United States wants to lower tariffs on farm products such as corn, soybeans, apples, cotton, almonds and ethanol, while also pushing for the entry of genetically modified farm products like maize into the Indian market.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded to the Trump tariff decision within hours last week, stating that “the interests of our farmers are our top priority” and that “India will never compromise with the interests of its farmers, livestock holders and fishermen”. Conscious of the impact on farmers, India has resisted the importing of GM products and lowering tariffs on agricultural products. Modi has assured Indian farmers that he will “not compromise on [their] interests” despite the uncertainty of trade negotiations.

The growing power of farmers to demand protection is a complication for talks with the United States.

This approach of protection and reassurance for farmers appears to be a stark contrast to the image of farmers in India only a few years ago. Back in 2020-21, farmers blocked highways, clashed with police officers and marched to Delhi to protest government policy. It amounted to a national year-long agitation against three farm acts that were passed by the Indian Parliament in September 2020 to liberalise the sector and seen as a successful expression of farmers’ political power. The laws were repealed in December 2021.

But the farming sector has a mixed record of recent political success in India. In 2017, Tamil Nadu farmers protested after going through one of the worst droughts in more than 100 years, having suffered from poor yields, low crop prices, excessive debts and a growing number of farmer suicides. Those protests captured media attention for the displays – eating food off the road, running naked outside the Prime Minister’s office, drinking their own urine, and eating mice. After 141 days of protests, they retreated as the cold weather of winter closed in. Many of their demands were left unmet.

The latest shift in the government’s approach towards farmers can be attributed to a confluence of factors.

First, the election statistics that were produced after the 2024 Lok Sabha election revealed that the dip in number of seats won by the BJP government was due to a switch in farmers’ support towards the opposition. Opposition parties doubled their share of the farmer votes, up from 10 per cent in 2019 to 21 per cent in 2024. For the BJP, electoral considerations mean giving greater credence to the voices of farmers.

Second, the wherewithal of farmers to sustain a year-long mass protest five years ago, across varied weather conditions, all the while garnering significant domestic and international support, demonstrated the political clout of farmers’ lobby. Modi will know that to expose the precarity of the agrarian political economy to newer, more liberal economic ideas carries a big risk.

While there is the possibility that the tariffs will ultimately only have a minimal impact on India’s exports and GDP, the growing power of farmers to demand protection is a complication for talks with the United States and indicative of their influence in a changing global economy.

The article appeared in  lowyinstitute