Why Did Nepal’s Prime Minister Suddenly Change His Coalition Partners?

In a dramatic turn of events over the weekend, Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ousted its key coalition partner, Nepali Congress (NC), from the government, and inducted the Communist Party of Nepal — Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) and two other smaller parties. This move marks a revival of the coalition that Prime Minister Dahal originally formed shortly after the 2022 parliamentary elections, which was dissolved during last year’s presidential elections.

Four parties – CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) – have entered into an eight-point agreement on power-sharing. The agreement states that ‘coalition shall work to ensure people’s aspirations such as good governance, development and social justice.’ On foreign affairs, the new alliance has said that ‘it shall work to ensure a balanced and extended international relation keeping national interests and priority at the forefront.’

As per the agreement, a new cabinet has been formed with eight ministers from UML, five from Maoist and two CPN (Unified Socialist). Another signatory, JSP, led by Upendra Yadav, has not taken an official decision about joining the government. This new coalition, dubbed the “left-plus coalition,” is characterised by the predominance of left-leaning parties, with the inclusion of democratic parties as well.

Third coalition after 2022 elections

In November 2022, Nepal conducted its regular national elections, resulting in the NC emerging as the largest party, followed by the CPN-UML in second place, and the Maoist Centre party securing a distant third position. While there was a pre-election alliance between the NC and the Maoist party, there was no clear agreement regarding power-sharing after the elections.

Once the election result came out, Dahal asserted his claim to the chief executive post. But, NC being the largest party in Parliament refused to accept him as a new Prime Minister. Dahal then switched to UML and the newly emerged RSP to garner support for his bid for the prime ministerial role.

A few months later, Dahal changed his mind in March 2023 and agreed to elect NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel as president which paved the way for the formation of a coalition between the NC and the Maoist party, along with two other smaller parties. The CPN-UML was forced into the opposition bench.

There was an understanding among the three leaders Dahal, NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN (Unified Socialist) to lead the government on a rotational basis. But, as expected by many seasoned political observers, implementing this formula was easier said than done. Yet again, after just one year, Dahal unilaterally terminated the alliance without consulting the other leaders or providing any explanation.

Causes of friction

In the intricate dance of Nepali politics, the unravelling of alliances often reveal hidden tensions and elaborate power plays.

One pivotal catalyst is the imminent vacancy in the position of the National Assembly (upper house) chairman, as the current chair, CPN-UML’s Ganesh Timilsina, is set to retire next month. Contrary to a “gentleman’s agreement”, the Maoist party refused to support NC leader Krishna Prasad Sitaula for the National Assembly Chair, even though he was elected as a member in the recent NA elections from the Koshi province.

The discord was compounded by the fallout from the National Assembly elections in the Koshi province. Sitaula’s triumph in the elections was expected yet the defeat of the Maoist candidate by the CPN-UML contender laid bare that NC did not vote as per the terms of the alliance. After the results of the National Assembly elections became clear, Maoist leaders publicly stated that the party would review its relationship with NC.

Another contributing factor was that Prime Minister Dahal and finance minister and NC’s Prakash Sharan Mahat were not on the same page on several issues related to the budgetary and development projects and resource sharing. Dahal often expressed dissatisfaction to Deuba regarding Mahat’s working methods and his perceived failure to address the country’s economic challenges.

Additionally, Dahal urged Deuba to replace underperforming ministers including Mahat, but Deuba maintained that since the ministers had not completed one year in office, they should be given the opportunity to demonstrate their capabilities.

Furthermore, during NC’s recent Mahasamiti meeting, a political document presented by general secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa was approved, stating that the party would refrain from forming pre-election alliances.

This decision unsettled Prime Minister Dahal, who had sought to secure election alliances for the forthcoming national and local elections, recognising the party’s vulnerable position. After NC’s Mahasamiti meeting, it seems that Dahal reached a conclusion that there is no need to continue the alliance with NC which is not ready for the electoral alliance.

Similarly, NC passed a political document which has negatively portrayed the Maoist insurgency. According to Maoist leaders, this is the primary cause behind the mistrust between NC and Maoist. Later, NC expressed readiness to rectify those issues in a forthcoming party meeting but Dahal responded saying that it is already late.

The NC had also been displeased over the selective opening of some corruption files including the fake refugee scandal in which senior NC leader Bal Krishna Khand was arrested and investigated.

NC leaders were of the view that the home ministry is selectively targeting the party’s leaders for corruption scandals as Dahal attempted to burnish his anti-corruption credentials in order to find something to list in the achievements category. According to NC leaders, they had agreed to adopt flexibility on all contentious issues but Dahal dismantled the agreement.

How did the new coalition emerge?

Gradually, a growing sense of mistrust between the Maoists and the NC began to hinder the overall functionality of the government. The administration led by Dahal faced increasing unpopularity due to its failures in service delivery, governance, job creation, and economic productivity.

Second-rung officials within the Maoist party began to perceive that maintaining the alliance with the NC would hinder Prime Minister Dahal’s capacity to fulfil his promises, prompting them to suggest pursuing cooperation with the CPN-UML.

Behind the scenes, UML leaders had also kept chipping away at the NC-Maoist coalition, biding their time. Initially, they approached the NC to form a new coalition, but Deuba did not entertain K.P. Sharma Oli’s proposal. At the same time, there was a strong sentiment among the second-tier politicians of both the Maoist and UML parties that communist factions should unite to compete with emerging political forces like the RSP and others. Particularly, youth leaders within the Maoist ranks believed that due to ideological disparities, a coalition with the NC was neither sustainable nor natural.

Following Oli’s dissolution of Parliament in December 2020, tensions between him and other parties escalated, prompting other parties to form an alliance against him. In the 2022 elections, Oli’s party campaigned independently but still secured the second position in Parliament, despite forging a significant electoral alliance with the NC, Maoist, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist). Recently, all three parties – NC, UML, and Maoist – have faced challenges from the newly emerged RSP, which secured 20 seats in Parliament during the 2022 elections.

Therefore, certain second-tier leaders began the discussions between the two parties. Initially, only a handful of leaders were optimistic about the revival of the Left alliance due to the prevailing low level of trust between Oli and Dahal, compounded by the steadfast commitment of both Dahal and Deuba to their existing coalition. During this period, Dahal and Oli frequently met to negotiate power-sharing, though publicly they claimed to be discussing transitional justice processes.

Simultaneously, key figures within the UML and Maoist parties held frequent meetings to strategise the formation of the new coalition. They believed that if the communist parties contested elections separately, their collective strength would diminish over time. To facilitate the agreement, Oli refrained from extensive bargaining with Dahal over ministerial portfolios and agreed to allocate the National Assembly chair to the Maoist party.

Domestic challenges before the new coalition

For over a year now, the Dahal-led government has been grappling with a myriad of domestic challenges. The new coalition has provided some respite to Prime Minister Dahal to buy time that he has just built a new coalition. However, hopes for significant improvement remain subdued.

Foremost among these challenges is the urgent need to implement concrete measures to uplift the country’s economic situation. Despite some positive developments in sectors such as remittances and tourism, key economic indicators continue to paint a bleak picture.

The government’s inability to generate employment has resulted in approximately 2,000 Nepalese citizens seeking work abroad every day. Meanwhile, individuals affected by loan sharks and micro-finance woes are awaiting justice, with many taking to the streets in protest. Moreover, tensions related to regional and ethnic issues are on the rise both in the hills and the Terai region.

These factors have contributed to a prevailing sense of pessimism within Nepali society, posing potential threats to the existing political system as anti-establishment sentiments gather momentum. Given the ideological and other differences within the new coalition, it is anticipated to encounter challenges similar to its predecessor in terms of functionality.

The coalition’s foreign policy outlook

Since assuming power in December 2022, Prime Minister Dahal has adopted a cautious stance on foreign affairs. Consequently, the new government is expected to maintain the status quo regarding policies concerning India, China, and the United States.

With India, there have been some positive developments in areas such as power cooperation, development partnerships, and connectivity projects. Despite Oli’s previous nationalistic rhetoric and confrontational stance towards India, relations between the two have significantly improved. Consequently, New Delhi is unlikely to be perturbed by the return of the UML to power.

Regarding China, there may be advancements in the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), an agenda that China has long pressed Nepal to prioritise. Both countries are actively working towards implementing the BRI implementation plan, indicating potential progress in this area.

Dahal’s strategy involves sidestepping key contentious issues with major powers, a stance likely to persist in the foreseeable future.

Dwindling hopes

The recent upheavals in the coalition signal that Nepal’s political landscape will continue to be marred by instability until the next elections.

With the latest turn in the Nepali political landscape, the largest party in the House of Representatives (HOR) finds itself relegated to the opposition bench.

The NC has already initiated talks with other non-coalition parties to forge a new government, indicating political stability will remain a mirage.

In the interim, Nepal is poised to witness a narrative of polarisation between communist and democratic parties, though the actualisation of this division appears doubtful.

Numerically, the current coalition remains fragile. The four parties collectively hold 142 members in the 275-seat lower house, which is just around 51% of the seats. The withdrawal of support from any coalition member will plunge it into minority status.

More disconcerting is the erosion of public trust in major political entities, with disillusionment growing palpable. Initially hopeful of alternative political forces, the populace now finds even these newcomers entangled in the same web of traditional politics.

source : thewire