By Shakir Ali 29 May 2021
The South Asian region has always remained vulnerable to conflicts and escalations. This primarily because of the ever-lasting volatility and the complex security dynamics of the region. For many decades, the regional security dynamics were all determined by the conventional asymmetry, Indian warmongering attitude towards Pakistan, and its acquisition of offensive nuclear capabilities. Given the hostile nature of the relationship between India and Pakistan, both countries have fought full- fledged wars and limited conflicts in the past. Even now there exists a continuous fear of war and escalation in the region. In such a scenario where Pakistan was facing existential threats from India, the acquisition of nuclear capability was more of a strategic compulsion to enhance its security and preserve its sovereignty.
Since the nuclearization of South Asia in 1998, the region has emerged as one of the most crucial regions in the world. The acquisition of nuclear capability by Pakistan has since then emboldened it with a credible and reliable deterrence posture which ultimately guaranteed a strategic equilibrium in the region. Even now, 23 years after the nuclearization of South Asia, Pakistan’s nuclear capability remains the guarantor of peace and stability in the region.
The overt nuclearization was primarily a consequence of India’s desire to dominate the security calculus of the region and undermine Pakistan’s security. The fact remains that it emerged as a strategic obligation for Pakistan to demonstrate its nuclear capability in order to restore the balance of power in the region. Pakistan’s pursuit of a credible nuclear capability has no doubt equalized the regional strategic balance while neutralizing various spectrum of threats. This notion continues to prevail even today as well.
However, India continuously attempts to undermine the strategic stability of the region in general and Pakistan’s nuclear threshold in particular. Evidence comes from; (1) India’s ongoing offensive military modernization program, (2) its provocative and self-obsessed notions of ‘surgical strikes’ under a nuclear scenario, (3) and insinuations of drifting away from its stated nuclear use doctrines. This becomes more impactful when Pakistan’s posture of full-spectrum deterrence that is within the ambit of minimum credible deterrence is to be assessed specifically in the contemporary regional security environment.
In pursuit of its long term hegemonic designs and great power aspirations, India has been rapidly augmenting its offensive military capabilities against Pakistan to re-adjust the strategic balance of power in its favor. India also intends to be at the decisive end while dominating the escalation ladder of the region. India possesses a diverse inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles ranging from short to long range and also ICMB (Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles). It has developed Ballistic Missile Defense systems and has an agreement with Russia for the supply of the S-400 Air Defense system which is no doubt one of the world’s most advanced missile defense shields. India has also developed and operationalized one of the world’s fastest supersonic missiles (BrahMos) and has been rigorously working on the development of hypersonic weapons (BrahMos-2) and space weapons. These advanced missiles are obviously meant for delivering nuclear warheads while providing a significant edge to India vis-a-vis Pakistan. India has also acquired Rafael fighter jets from France which are among the most advanced jets in the world. This indicates that India tends to become a regional hegemon while dominating the region militarily. Thus, further increasing the threat perception of Pakistan and compelling Pakistan to hold the burden of strategic stability in the region.
India’s attempt to undermine the strategic stability of the region is also evident in its self-proclaimed existence of ‘new normal’ in South Asia. Especially at a time when the region seems to be still under the impact of the Pulwama-Balakot crisis of 2019 that resulted in an exchange of hostilities between India and Pakistan; however, Pakistan’s nuclear capability was again the decisive factor at that time and the crisis didn’t go beyond a certain level of escalation. This again implies that the burden of maintaining the strategic stability in the region ultimately comes on Pakistan.
The Indian strategic aspirations coupled with its offensive military modernization would likely further destabilize the already fragile South Asian region. All these factors are a deliberate Indian attempt to undermine Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and to endanger the strategic environment of the region. Pakistan, on the other hand, which already relies on very calculated response options; the nuclear capability would likely play the decisive role. Given the economic difficulties of the country and its reluctance to indulge in an arms race with India, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence; either full- spectrum or minimum credible would remain a key strategic determinant of peace and stability in the region. Last but never least, Pakistan’s nuclear capability which has ensured strategic deterrence since the beginning and till now would likely serve as the guarantor of peace in South Asia in the future as well.