It is often said that for the military generals, in order to introduce new ideas, it is vital to remove their deeply entrenched beliefs, first.
Having been invited by WION TV to offer my opinion on Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) protest in Islamabad on November 24, 2024,[1] I felt it necessary to share my thoughts on the ongoing political impasse between Pakistan’s military establishment — comprising its Army and the premier intelligence agency, the ISI — and the PTI.
First of all, holding a peaceful political rally is a fundamental right of every citizen in a democracy. However, since Pakistan’s dysfunctional democracy remains condemned as “of the elite, by the elite and for the elite,” political protests are viewed as existential threats to the sitting governments. It becomes all the more important for a political dispensation surviving on military clutches to use brute force to not only curtail, but also crush any political opposition or dissent.
Maleeha Lodhi, an eminent former ambassador to the US, UK and UN, recently noted: “Barricading the capital, using cargo containers to block roads, closing highways, breaking up protest rallies, banning public gatherings, arresting opposition supporters, raiding homes of opposition leaders, policing the media, orchestrating internet outages, suspending mobile network services and instituting cases against political opponents. That being the state of play today, what does it all indicate? It speaks of a siege mentality on the part of the government and establishment — a state in which they see themselves in constant danger and fearful all the time of being overwhelmed by opponents. This urges them to take strong-arm measures, not occasionally but incessantly.”
Thus, it was not surprising to see the government full throttle impeding the PTI’s protest march through police and Rangers forces, with the military establishment silently supporting these unconstitutional measures from the sidelines.
It further didn’t ruffle any feathers when in a bizarre judgment, the Islamabad High Court declared the protest “unlawful.” In the backdrop of a letter written by six sitting High Court judges to the Chief Justice Supreme Court in March 2024, complaining the “brazen meddling” by intelligence agencies in their adjudications, the said ruling didn’t come as a surprise.
Therefore, notwithstanding the façade of elections and the Constitution of 1973 vouching fundamental democratic rights, the ABC of Pakistani politics keeps circling around GHQ (the general headquarters).
Military’s Role in the Polity
Whether people like it or not, Pakistan’s military establishment has played an active role in the country’s politics since its inception — and, in many cases, rightly so. In view of less-than-honest, at times treacherous and insidious[2] Pakistani politicians, having looted and plundered the country at will during the so-called democratic eras, one has always tried to “objectively analyze” Army’s proactive role in steering the country to save it from total collapse in my various past dissertations (See (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), and (vi)).[3]
However, I must hasten to admit that having smelled blood and by remaining the biggest beneficiary of the state resources in the past 76 years it has now become impossible to wean away the military establishment from the national politics.[4] The “culture of entitlement” that pervades among the Pakistani feudal and elite class has permeated into the Army also.
Since having tried, tested, and failed using the two main political parties – the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) – in stabilizing the country, it was the military establishment that had brought Mr. Imran Khan, the leader of PTI, into power in the elections of July 2018.[5] Ironically, the same institution had to orchestrate Khan’s removal from power on April 10, 2022 – again justifiably.
Khan’s Cardinal Sins
An obdurate and politically naïve Mr. Khan never heeded the Army’s “sane advice” on numerous domestic and foreign policy issues. Over and above, the former prime minister was so brazenly smug, tactless, and uncivil to have “undiplomatically snub,” and “indiscreetly accuse” the international powers for his ouster from the office. Unsurprisingly, in a bizarre video message on November 21, 2024, Mr. Khan’s wife further accused Saudi Arabia and the former Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa for Khan’s sacking.
Riding on several lofty promises, Imran Khan’s premiership remained a dismal record of lackluster performance, shallow outlook, and frivolous exploits. While the list of his floundering is long, Mr. Khan has remained a man of stark contradictions, perplexing enigmas, and disappointing deliverables. A rookie politician who shall be remembered in the history not for his principles, but for his frequent “U-Turns” and backtrackings on his words.
Pledging to usher in a new era of politics – giving opportunity to fresh political blood – Khan put together a herd of “timeserving turncoats” at the first drop of hat calling them his “need for the electables.” Then, having lived most of his life in the West and rubbing shoulders with the civilized world, Mr. Khan suddenly changed tack and became “Taliban Khan” – supporting the terrorist Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP). Finally, duly forgiving the corruption scandals of his political benefactors, his boasting accountability czar also failed in bringing back nation’s looted money, stashed offshore.
Mr. Khan has further been (allegedly) running the everyday governmental matters in “spiritual consultation” with his mystic, but highly avaricious wife. Last, but not the least, the former prime minister installed an ignoramus chief minister to make a mess out of the biggest Punjab province just to safeguard his chair from any political threat. It is joked that chief minister Sardar Usman Buzdar “won the toss and elected to lose.”
The Myth of Imran Khan’s Popularity
Thus, despite Mr. Khan’s support among the youth and educated middle class, it is not in Pakistan’s national interest to allow him to assume power once again — to rule the country autocratically or to isolate the state internationally.
Regarding Mr. Khan’s so-called “massive support” among the middle class, I have noted earlier in my study paper that Mr. Khan’s “perceived sainthood” does not make him a popular leader. It is rather the “devil personification” of PPP and PML-N, which has antagonized the educated middle class and intelligentsia so much that they have been forced to put their weight behind Mr. Khan. They see him as a Messiah, a lesser evil, a corruption-free leader, and a national hero who had won Pakistan the cricket’s world cup in 1992. In Urdu language, Khan’s popularity can be termed as “Bughz-e-Mua’awiya rather than Hubb-e-Hussain.”
Similar to the so-called 2019’s Arab Spring-II in Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan and Algeria, when people rose in protest against the malgovernance of their incumbent governments, people in Pakistan are also fed-up and frustrated to their bones from the existing political order and the dynastic politics of PPP and PML-N.
Military Establishment’s Dilemmas
One may agree with the view that by keeping Mr. Khan behind bars through several legal cases — mostly politically motivated and some socially absurd — the military establishment is turning him into a “political martyr” and a national hero, much like Nelson Mandela, who faced incarceration for South Africa’s apartheid struggle.
However, the Army faces several dilemmas. Having erroneously relinquished political space to the politicians and the public, the establishment has now realised its err, only to forcibly snatch the rug under the civilians’ feet.
Various factors had compelled the military to step back from the forefront politics:
(1) The baggage of President General Pervez Musharraf’s martial law and emergency and his mortifying fall from grace
(2) Successive Army Chiefs’ service extension favours;
(3) International pressure;[6]
(4) Country’s precarious economic situation;
(5) Terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa;
(6) Insurgency in Baluchistan;
(7) Out of control law and order situation;
(8) Public’s political awareness through social media;[7] and
(9) People’s disapproval/condemnation of military’s benefits, rewards and entitlements
Reversal of Politico-Military Tide
Thus, employing excessively harsh but robust and effective countermeasures, the Army has reclaimed its past control, instilled fear and restored its decorum among the masses.
First, the military weaned away Mr. Khan’s members of National Assembly to vote in favour of 26th Constitutional Amendment against party policy in October 2024. Unsurprisingly, PTI members are continuously incentivized, or coerced, to leave their political party.[8]
Simultaneously, staying behind the scenes the establishment successfully brought a sense of normalcy in the country by criminalizing the offending journalists, punishing the erring youngsters for social media posts, restraining the electronic and print media, and censoring, surveilling, and monitoring the Internet (without consent) through Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA).
Moreover, with economic indicators brightening up through the receipt of IMF’s tranche on September 27, 2024, the stock market boomed, Rupee strengthened against the US Dollar, and fuel prices dropped. Demonstrating confidence in the economic turnaround and a big drop in inflation, Pakistan’s central State Bank cut its key policy rate by a record 250 basis points on November 4, 2024.
Such a reversal of fortunes made the Army Chief General Asim Munir chide the doomsayers about Pakistan’s financial default. Although, naïve and simplistic, and without presenting any alternative, Army Chief’s views about “social media contributing to moral degradation” informs how Pakistan plans to continue curbing civil liberties and fundamental rights.
Furthermore, having a short political memory and being too preoccupied with their everyday hardships of life, people hardly remember their past leaders. The diehard supporters of charismatic Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his iconic daughter Benazir Bhutto have already blotted out their recollection. Imran Khan being a closed and past transaction may also lose his shine and lustre if kept out of political scene for a few more years.
That, however, may not be possible. Considering the penchant of newly elected U.S. president, Mr. Donald Trump for autocrat leaders, there is a strong possibility of him “asking” the establishment to release Mr. Khan from his captivity. It would be almost impossible for the West-aligned Army to say no to such a request.
Meanwhile, seeing the Pakistan Army as the only organized force to challenge global terrorism emanating from this region and needing the institution for stabilizing the “religiously extremist” fifth most populous country in the world, the international community has chosen to look the other way – quite similar to condoning and supporting the military dictatorship in a progressive Egypt.
Military’s Hybrid Political Governance
Historically speaking, military establishment’s political mindset resides in the observations of Pakistan’s former military dictators. For instance, President General Ayub Khan, who had imposed Pakistan’s first martial law in 1958, had categorically stated “the Westminster model [of democracy] does not suit the genius of Pakistan.” While General Yahya Khan, the country’s second martial law administrator had asserted “I cannot throw the country to the [political] wolves.” Lastly, General Pervez Musharraf remained sold to the idea that “in order to keep the army out [of power], it needs to be brought in” by granting the establishment a proper constitutional role, as the “country’s constitution lacks checks and balances.”
However, the military establishment has reckoned that running Pakistan’s complex domestic and foreign affairs are neither possible under a martial law, nor within the means of inept and rapacious politicians alone. Thus, treating the government as marionette, the Army has taken over the reins of political governance as well as country’s financial management to prevent it from imminent default. The Army Chief not only keeps reassuring the business community, but along with the prime minister also co-chairs the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to boost confidence and morale.
Thus, keeping the civilians at the front in a “hybrid governance model,” the Army has been steadfastly pursuing “military diplomacy,” and “military economics” to steer the country out of international isolation and financial insolvency. And it has been successful.
Army’s Vicious but Outdated Directing Staffs’ (DS) Political Solution
The problem, however, is that the military establishment is still following its age old “DS Solution” of political control and stewardship under the notion of “guardian of nation.” Since all military training institutions impart professional instruction through “Directing Staff” or DS (trainers) using their “pink-paper DS Solutions,” the establishment keeps employing its 76-year-old heavy-handed blueprint to restrain the rogue civilians.
Since resistance or revolution does not reside in the DNA of the people of Pakistan, despite public outcry there would hardly be any worthwhile opposition to such a political configuration. Historically the people of the Indus Valley Civilization never resisted any Central Asian invading warrior. The two hundred years of Colonial rule further made the people of this land dormant and un-mutinous.
To forestall any challenge to its authority, the military establishment has very cleverly kept the religious forces and the clergy – carrying street-protest-power – by its side through continuous appeasement and acting as their biggest benevolent and employment provider. Educated middle class and intelligentsia hardly pose any threat to the Army’s sway and control.
Military’s astute “defence diplomacy” has further won it the accolades of the international community through regular interaction and a sizeable contribution to the United Nations’ Peacekeeping force. Already bogged down in Ukraine, the Middle East, and now in an impulsive and impetuous Mr. Trump, the world would hardly bother about the internal affairs of Pakistan.
However, the Army has little realization that times have changed. The youth belonging to the Millennial and Generation Zed are not only well educated but are also globally exposed and politically mature. Thus, brute force tactics of yesteryears is not only proving impractical but also counter-productive – tarnishing the very image of the Army among its support base. Blaming “governance through punishment,”[9] people have already begun drawing parallels of establishment’s brutal measures and harsh penalties with its ruthless and ill-witted operations in the former East Pakistan that led to the creation of Bangladesh in December 1971.
Conclusion
As I had noted in my TV comments (cited above), PTI wants to stay “politically relevant” to the masses through regular protest rallies and by causing civil unrest. The jittery response of the puppet government in stifling dissent and crushing opposition through disproportionate use of force is helping it out.
Another commentator noted: “PTI is comfortable in the knowledge that the government is scoring an own goal by locking up half the country, leading to economic losses as well as running the risk of shortages of necessities in urban centres.”
However, Imran Khan can only end his political misfortunes and come out of political wilderness by striking a deal with the military establishment similar to the one former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto had done for her return from exile on April 10, 1986. Her agreement let her participate in the elections in November 1988 to become Pakistan’s first woman prime minister. Consenting not to interfere with the military’s ongoing foreign policy and let Sahabzada Yaqub Khan continue as the foreign minister, Ms. Bhutto had further conceded not to question the Army’s Afghan Jihad policy as well as the country’s clandestine nuclear program. Thus, Mr. Khan also needs to comprehend the permissible limits granted to any political leader in Pakistan to play his politics in the future.
At the same time, the Army also needs to take into account its own frailties, internal contradictions and paradoxes. I had given a detailed account of some of military’s domestic predicaments and external vulnerabilities in my December 2022’s paper titled ‘Talking the Talk of Pakistan’s Military Might: Indo-Pakistan New Normal.’[10]
By questionably stationing itself in swanky cantonments, the sixth largest armies of the world (in size) with a nuclear overhang continues to receive a regular beating by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the separatists in Baluchistan. As a polarized country keeps at war against itself, an Army lacking political acumen and military will remains clueless how to handle terrorism or address political grievances across the country.
Having no Plan-B in sight, the military establishment continues to employ its age old “DS Solution” to contain political unrests and tame insubordinate civilians. By amending the Pakistan Army Act, criminalizing any anti-Army criticism – especially by the retired Army officers and personnel – the establishment has further underlined its own insecurities and dented its image and repute.
However, while it ill-behoves a professional Army to maltreat its own people by strong-arm tactics – harassing, jailing, and humiliating the citizens – it is impossible to sustain such coercive and intimidating practices in the present age and time when people have awakened to their political rights. Moreover, the watchful eyes of Human Rights organizations and the international community cannot condone such brutal measures for long. The establishment must realize that brute force, bereft of logic, falls by its own weight.
T.S. Eliot had noted: “For last year’s words belong to last year’s language and next year’s words await another voice. And to make an end is to make a [new] beginning.” The military establishment must understand that the shelf life of its political “DS Solution” of yesteryears is over. The generals should be mindful that in different time and space, and under new ground realities, their political wargaming needs revision and recasting. But for that, they need to discard their old lessons and come out of their obsessive-compulsive mindset, first.
Remember, it is unwise to urbicide a society, just to create a dwelling of your own choice.