Pakistan expels Afghan refugees despite thaw with Taliban

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan has resumed forcible repatriation of Afghan refugees despite warming ties with the Taliban regime next door in Afghanistan. The change is a reflection of Islamabad’s new “refugee-free” Afghan policy that the government has not made public.

Pakistan last week set Sept. 1 as the deadline for the departure of 1.4 million Afghan refugees registered and living in Pakistan. Soon after, there were local reports of deportations along the border.

Expulsions of Afghan refugees started in September 2023, but Pakistan halted deportations in mid-2024 in response to protests from the international community. The recent decision to resume expulsions follows an improvement in ties with the Taliban. Pakistan upgraded its diplomatic relations with Kabul, sending an ambassador to Afghanistan in June.

The expulsions will not affect relations with Afghanistan, Pakistani officials told Nikkei Asia. One said that the government has adopted a policy of not accepting refugees in Pakistan.

“Relations with Afghanistan remain positive, and Afghans are welcome to apply for visas and reside in Pakistan legally, but not as refugees,” the official said. “This position has been conveyed to the Afghan government, which has expressed no objection.”

The Afghan embassy in Islamabad replied to a Nikkei inquiry about whether Islamabad has informed it about its Afghan refugee repatriation plans by writing, “No letter regarding the expulsion of Afghan refugees has been received.”

It did not elaborate on whether there have been any other bilateral diplomatic communications.

However, experts say Pakistan is confident that it can move ahead with the expulsions without causing its relations with the Taliban regime to deteriorate.

“The [Kabul] regime has made it clear that the war is over, and now is the time to develop its homeland,” said Fakhar Kakakhel, an analyst and author covering Afghanistan. “They have announced amnesty schemes to facilitate the return of refugees and asylum seekers to Afghanistan.

An Afghan citizen and father of three sits beside his wife as they, along with other families, take shelter at a park in Islamabad on Aug. 10: Pakistan has started to deport documented Afghan refugees.   © Reuters

“The primary concern for Kabul is the treatment of refugees, which has also been discussed at the state level between the two countries,” he added.

A member of Pakistan’s ruling coalition, speaking, on condition of anonymity, said Pakistan has hosted Afghan refugees for over 40 years, and now it’s time for them to leave. “Pakistan can’t continue hosting Afghan refugees indefinitely, even if we have good relations with their government,” the official said.

Experts and government officials say there are a number of reasons for Pakistan’s new strictures on Afghan refugees, including security concerns. According to a 2023 statement by Sarfraz Ahmed Bugti, then Pakistan’s interior minister, Afghan nationals were involved in 14 of 24 suicide attacks in Pakistan that year.

“Security is the primary concern for the Pakistani government regarding the return of Afghan refugees to their home country,” said Noreen Naseer, an assistant professor at the University of Peshawar. “Security concerns have grown due to instability in the northwestern areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. The government assumes that forceful repatriation will help control security issues in border districts,” she said.

Afghan refugees’ perceived hatred toward Pakistanis is another reason for the repatriations.

Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), an Islamabad-based think tank, said Pakistani officials believe Afghan refugees do not have a positive feelings toward Pakistan and have shown a lack of gratitude for the support it has provided over the years. “If Afghans are thankless, and do not acknowledge Pakistan’s help, then there is little reason for them to remain in the country. This sentiment has been communicated to Afghan authorities [through diplomatic channels],” he told Nikkei.

Kakakhel added that the Afghan diaspora living in the West has been spreading hate against Pakistanis, referring to an incident last year in Frankfurt, Germany, when a group of Afghan refugees entered the Pakistani Consulate, tore down the country’s flag and chanted anti-Pakistani slogans. “This has triggered a political reaction in Pakistan, increasing pressure on the government to repatriate Afghan refugees,” he said.

Naseer, who has been conducting research on Afghan refugees, drew a parallel between Pakistan’s and Iran’s approach to the issue. “Iran’s actions in expelling refugees have influenced Pakistan to continue the deportation drive,” she said.

Observers do not see external factors preventing Pakistan from expelling Afghans. Kakakhel said that the West no longer shows as much interest in the Afghan refugee crisis as it did in the past. “Thousands of Afghan refugees were promised relocation to Western countries but [those promises] have now been abandoned, which has proven disastrous for those awaiting resettlement in the West while living in Pakistan,” he said.

“In this context,” Kakakhel said, U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on immigrants “is one such reason for [Afghan refugees’] deportation back to Afghanistan.”

The expulsions, however, will have economic repercussions for Pakistan. Naseer pointed out that the deportations risk harming the economies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, Pakistan’s northern and western provinces bordering Afghanistan, where migrants play a vital role. “Deportations and border closures will not only disrupt trade but also sever community ties across the border, deepening economic crises in already underdeveloped [western] provinces,” she said.

The article appeared in asia.nikkei