Pakistan election battlegrounds heat up as Imran Khan hit by jail terms

LAHORE — With Pakistan set to go to the polls in one week and former Prime Minister Imran Khan reeling from multiple decade-long jail sentences, the race is heating up in the country’s most populous province of Punjab.

At the same time, the outcome in the smallest province by population, Balochistan, is sure to be closely watched by China, as the restive region forms the heart of its Belt and Road investments in the South Asian nation.

Put simply, what happens in Punjab will decide who rules Pakistan after next Thursday’s elections — a reality some analysts say requires reform to ensure a fairer democratic system.

Pakistan’s lower house, the National Assembly, has 266 directly contested seats, out of which 141 are for Punjab. In addition, 60 assembly seats are reserved for women, 32 of which will go to Punjab. This means that a party that sweeps Punjab can form a government without any support in the country’s other three provinces.

In addition, much of the civil and military bureaucracy, business community and media elite are concentrated in Punjab, adding to resentment that has historically simmered in the other provinces of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

“Given its sheer size, political parties do not need to campaign out of Punjab for forming a government in the center, and this leaves the smaller provinces out of the power corridors,” said Tahir Naeem Malik, a professor of international relations at the National University of Modern Languages (NUML) in Islamabad.

Not surprisingly, Punjab is the focus of the current confrontation between Nawaz Sharif — leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and a three-time prime minister widely believed to be the favored candidate of the powerful military establishment — and independent candidates backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of Imran Khan.

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif waves to supporters in Hafizabad, in Punjab, on Jan. 18. He is widely considered the favorite to lead the next government.   © AP

The Khan allies are effectively independents because the PTI was prohibited from running a cohesive campaign under its trademark cricket bat symbol, over an election rules breach. Many see this as part of a relentless campaign by the establishment to weaken the party, which openly clashed with the military in the months after Khan was removed from office in an April 2022 no-confidence vote.

The latest blows to Khan came this week, when he was handed a 10-year prison term on Tuesday for leaking state secrets and a 14-year sentence on Wednesday for illegal sales of state gifts. As the former cricket star, who denies all wrongdoing, had already been jailed since August on corruption allegations and barred from running in the election, this did not technically change the outlook for the polls. Still, an aide to Khan told Reuters that while the cases appeared to be an attempt to weaken support for the former leader, “people will now make sure they come out and vote in larger numbers.”

The tables have fully turned since Sharif was sentenced to jail for corruption ahead of the 2018 elections that put Khan in office. He would later spend four years in exile in London before returning home last October, apparently with the military’s backing, and has had his legal troubles quashed.

Supporters of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan chant slogans as they run from police in Lahore, Punjab, on Jan. 28.   © Reuters

Both Khan and Sharif hail from Lahore, the capital of Punjab. Experts say Sharif is focusing all his campaign energy on the province.

Sharif’s “PML-N aims to secure 90 to 100 seats from Punjab, so it would not care about developments in [the smaller] provinces,” said Shahid Maitla, a political analyst in Islamabad, the national capital. He added that the PML-N, during its times in power in the past, has generally focused much of its development efforts in Punjab to strengthen its position there.

Malik expressed concern that if the PML-N succeeds in Punjab, there will be no significant checks on Sharif’s power. “History tells us that whenever Sharif has an absolute majority he turns into a dictator, which does not bode well for the country,” he argued, referring to past pressure on the media and apparent bypassing of parliament.

Either way, experts say Pakistan’s current political model — a federation dominated by Punjab — requires a rethink.

The analyst Maitla said the number of seats in the National Assembly should be trimmed through a new division of regional units. “Better governance warrants [the division of Punjab] into at least three provinces,” Maitla said.

While most of the attention is on Punjab, the polls — national and provincial — carry a different sort of significance in Balochistan. What happens there could send ripples beyond Pakistan’s borders.

The province is home to the port of Gwadar, center stage in the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Winners in Gwadar may directly deal with China and would have policy input about the future of CPEC in Gwadar.

Fishermen clear a net along Gwadar’s beach. The port is key to China’s Belt and Road projects in Pakistan, but experts say there has been little development to benefit locals.   © Reuters

For Gwadar’s provincial assembly seat, the main battle is between Hammal Kalmati, scion of the Kalmati political clan that has dominated local politics for decades, and Maulana Hidayat ur Rehman, the firebrand Islamist leader of the Gwadar Rights Movement, which has emerged as a force advocating local interests and at times targeting its pressure at CPEC.

Kiyya Baloch, an independent security analyst, told Nikkei Asia that although Gwadar is the site of considerable foreign investment, overall there has been little development to benefit local residents under the Kalmati dynasty, which has not faced serious competition until now. “That’s why people are now shifting their support toward the Gwadar Rights Movement, which will help them in the elections,” Baloch predicted.

Experts say that CPEC and China have not featured in the campaign in Gwadar so far.

“No candidate is mentioning China or CPEC in the election campaign, and the focus is on the grievances of the people of Gwadar,” said Nasir Sohrabi, president of the Rural Community Development Council of Gwadar. Those complaints include deep-sea fish trawling that has hurt local livelihoods, drinking water shortages, alleged harassment at security checkpoints, poor sanitation and long power outages.

Sohrabi added that many in Gwadar are coming to the realization that sending a competent person to the National Assembly would help to protect local interests.

As the complexion of local politics changes, so too may the way China engages with Pakistan.

Typically, Beijing has relied on the federal government in Islamabad to arrange CPEC projects and handle related issues. “If Beijing starts dealing with the elected representatives of Gwadar, after the elections, then it will make it much easier for China to deal with problems related to CPEC,” Baloch said.