UN report warns of global water crisis amid climate change – Newspaper – DAWN.COM
by Abdul Waheed Bhutto 8 September 2023
An article penned by PV Rajesh from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune and BN Goswami from the Department of Physics at Cotton University in Guwahati has garnered considerable attention since its publication in the Earth’s Future journal on July 31, 2023. This scholarly work has reignited discussions and shed light on a noteworthy shift in the Indian monsoon, particularly its westward expansion. This climatic phenomenon holds paramount importance for the climate of the South Asian subcontinent. Through historical analysis, a fascinating pattern has emerged: a significant 10% reduction in average rainfall in the northeastern regions, juxtaposed with a remarkable 25% increase in rainfall in the western and northwestern areas.
Historians have conducted extensive research into the connection between monsoon patterns and ancient civilizations. Many experts have proposed that the Ghaggar-Hakra River system, which flows through contemporary northwestern India and eastern Pakistan, coursing between the Yamuna and Sutlej rivers before culminating in the Thar desert, could potentially be identified with the Sarasvati River mentioned in ancient texts.
“Four Ancient Rivers of Sindh” by M. H. Panhwar provides a comprehensive detail of the historical narrative of the ancient rivers in the Indus Valley. The Indian government recognized the significance of this river by launching the “Saraswati Heritage Development Board” aimed at fostering research and development related to the Sarasvati River. This ancient civilization, which thrived from 2600 BCE to 1900 BCE, was distinguished by advanced urban planning, metallurgical expertise, and a thriving trade network. The weather records of the past 10,000 years studied with the help of archaeology botany and geomorphology show that Sanghar District had annual rain fall of approximately 14 inch between 9500 to 4,000 years ago. The decline of this river system is attributed to tectonic activity and shifts in monsoon patterns, ultimately leading to its drying up around 4,000 years ago.
Returning to the present, the year 2010 marked the beginning of a series of monsoons in northern Pakistan characterized by milder temperatures yet increased warmth. This shift marked a significant transformation in the climate of Sindh, a province known for its arid conditions. Recurrent floods have now become a defining aspect of the province’s reality in the 21st century, challenging its previous reputation.
Notable flood events in 2010, 2011, 2020, and 2022 have left a lasting impact, encompassing a range of disasters from river floods to deluges, urban inundations, and rain and flash floods. The heavy rainfall in 2010 resulted in river breaches, submerging more than a million hectares of land and causing substantial losses. The deluge in 2011 submerged districts in lower Sindh, pushing communities into poverty. In 2020, Karachi experienced its most severe urban flooding in decades, primarily due to inadequate drainage systems.
The subsequent year brought an unprecedented flood triggered by climate change-related rainfall, inflicting one of Sindh’s worst disasters. Thousands were displaced, homes and infrastructure were damaged, and crops were destroyed. The province recorded unheard-of rainfall, underscoring shifts in monsoonal patterns. Between mid-June and August 2022, a distressing narrative unfolded as record-breaking monsoon rains inundated vast regions of Pakistan, with Sindh and Baluchistan experiencing a staggering 7 to 8 times their typical August rainfall. Unpredictable monsoons have wreaked havoc in Sindh and Baluchistan, with rainfall anomalies surging to 430 percent above normal in Baluchistan and a staggering 460 percent in Sindh. This resulted in reshaped landscapes along the Indus River, now submerged marshes.
Pakistan, with its arid to semi-arid landscapes, grapples with the far-reaching repercussions of this meteorological transformation. The monsoon’s importance to Pakistan is paramount; it supplies 65 to 75 percent of annual water, sustaining agriculture and livelihoods. This shift in monsoon patterns disrupts the equilibrium that sustains Pakistan’s irrigation system. The monsoon’s substantial rainfall replenishes rivers and reservoirs, serving as a vital resource for agricultural irrigation during the drier months.
A primary concern arises from the resulting reshuffling of rainfall distribution across the nation. While some areas contend with deluge-like downpours, the risk of inundation escalates, while others confront diminished rainfall, leading to acute water scarcity. The implications of this imbalance reverberate throughout Pakistan’s intricate irrigation network, posing intricate challenges in managing and distributing water resources effectively.
The agricultural sector, heavily reliant on the nurturing showers of the monsoon and the irrigation system, now bears the brunt of these shifting patterns. The westward progression of the monsoon threatens regions dependent on well-timed and adequate rainfall for productive crops. Disrupted planting schedules extended growing seasons, and heightened vulnerability to pests and diseases emerge as potential outcomes, raising concerns of impending crop failures.
Furthermore, the monsoon’s role in replenishing water reserves – including rivers, lakes, and reservoirs – cannot be underestimated. The westward shift could lead to diminished water inflow into these reservoirs, thereby affecting the availability of this vital resource for both agricultural and domestic purposes. With reduced rainfall impacting regions that have historically enjoyed ample precipitation, the capacity of these reservoirs to fulfill water demands could dwindle, setting the stage for inter-sectoral competition for limited resources.
Amidst the confluence of shifting monsoon patterns and the expansion of the Indian Ocean’s warm pool, Pakistan grapples with the looming challenge of water scarcity. This intensifies the quest for limited water resources across diverse sectors, spanning from agriculture to urban necessities. Consequently, the resulting erratic monsoons amplify tensions over water allocation, sparking conflicts between the four provinces of Pakistan.
In this intricate landscape, recalibrating water management strategies to accommodate evolving precipitation patterns becomes an urgent imperative. Embracing advanced water storage methods, efficient irrigation practices, and innovative water-saving technologies are critical for ensuring sustainable water usage.
These changes extend beyond hydrological concerns, casting their impact on the economic and social fabric. Given agriculture’s pivotal role in Pakistan’s economy, disruptions to the sector reverberate widely, impacting livelihoods and food security. The prospect of escalating food prices and rural-to-urban migration underscores the necessity for comprehensive adaptation measures.
Looking ahead, diversifying crops and investing in water conservation emerge as vital steps. Rainwater harvesting, improved irrigation methods, and sustainable farming practices are key components in fortifying resilience amid uncertainty.
The recent catastrophic flood situation in Sindh, fueled by excessive rainfall and inadequate drainage management, underscores the need for proactive responses. The viability of constructing smaller dams emerges as a pragmatic approach, enhancing flood and stormwater control. Similarly, bolstering infrastructure in flood-prone zones, along with robust early warning systems and heightened public awareness, forms an indispensable part of comprehensive flood prevention.
Restoring natural waterways and reforestation efforts offer potential solutions to absorb excess water and mitigate flooding risks, establishing a symbiotic connection between environmental conservation and disaster preparedness.
As outlined in the 2018 National Water Policy, Pakistan is swiftly moving towards a critical juncture characterized by water scarcity, which in turn poses a significant threat to food security due to the burgeoning population. The per capita availability of surface water has witnessed a stark decline, plummeting from 5,260 cubic meters annually in 1951 to approximately 1,000 cubic meters in 2016.
Alarming projections estimate a further decrease to around 860 cubic meters by 2025, signifying a transition from a “water stressed” to a “water scarce” status. This impending situation necessitates urgent and comprehensive action in the form of robust water resource development and management efforts.
As stipulated in the Sindh Water Policy of 2023, a significant focal point in the context of Sindh is its role as the downstream region within Pakistan. This situation encompasses various dimensions, including apprehensions about diminished inflows of surface water, uncertainties surrounding unregulated flood discharges during flood seasons, and worries regarding the deteriorating quality of water in the primary Indus River.
Addressing the challenges posed by climate change calls for a multifaceted strategy, highlighted by the construction of small and medium-sized dams that can efficiently cater to the local and regional water demands. Concurrently, the installation of check dams and delay-action dams offers a dual advantage—facilitating the replenishment of aquifers and mitigating the adverse effects of rapid flow velocities and erosion. Moreover, the periods characterized by floods and excess water flow provide a strategic window for recharging underground aquifers, augmenting their potential for future utilization. These strategic interventions underscore the critical role of water storage, encompassing both surface reservoirs and subterranean facilities, as a pivotal measure to alleviate the far-reaching consequences of a shifting climate.
In conclusion, Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its battle against water scarcity, exacerbated by shifting monsoon patterns and climate change. The implications of these changes extend far beyond hydrology, touching upon every facet of society and the economy. As we move forward, it is imperative that Pakistan embraces innovative and sustainable solutions.
Diversifying crops, investing in water conservation, and adopting advanced agricultural practices are essential steps to fortify resilience in the face of uncertain monsoons. Rainwater harvesting, efficient irrigation methods, and sustainable farming must become integral parts of Pakistan’s agricultural landscape.
The recent catastrophic floods in Sindh underscore the need for proactive responses. Constructing smaller dams, bolstering infrastructure in flood-prone areas, and improving early warning systems are critical for comprehensive flood prevention.
Furthermore, restoring natural waterways and reforestation efforts offer promising avenues to mitigate flooding risks while contributing to environmental conservation.
Addressing these challenges calls for a multifaceted strategy that includes the construction of small and medium-sized dams, the installation of check dams, and the development of delay-action dams. These measures not only cater to local and regional water demands but also facilitate the replenishment of aquifers and mitigate the adverse effects of rapid flow velocities and erosion.
As Pakistan navigates these complex challenges, one thing remains clear: the role of water storage, both surface and subterranean, is pivotal in alleviating the far-reaching consequences of a shifting climate. By embracing sustainable water management practices and fostering innovation, Pakistan can secure its future amid a changing climate and ensure food security for its growing population.