NEW DELHI — Fierce fighting in Myanmar has raised “deep concern” in India, which is closely monitoring security along the countries’ shared border while bracing for an influx of refugees.

The military regime that seized power in Myanmar in February 2021, ousting the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, is facing arguably its biggest test yet in the form of a coordinated armed resistance. The renewed instability has raised alarm in countries that border the troubled Southeast Asian state, including rival powers India and China.

Operation 1027 — as the resistance offensive is named, after the date it started in late October — “has shaken the military” in Myanmar, observed Udai Bhanu Singh, a strategic analyst formerly with the New Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

He said that Myanmar’s strategic location has always made it a high priority for Indian policymakers, but that “certain developments have escalated the pace of events in Myanmar, and as a consequence the response from India needs to be appropriate and swift.”

“Ironically, it is China that is demanding border security from the Myanmar regime even as Myanmar handed over thousands of telecom fraud suspects to China recently. It is clear that the Myanmar regime is no longer in control over large swaths of its territory and that includes the border with India and the border with China.”

India shares a 1,643 kilometer border with Myanmar, which should give it a gateway to the economies of Southeast Asia. Myanmar is integral to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Act East” policy, aimed at promoting economic cooperation and cultural ties as well as developing strategic relationships with the ASEAN bloc and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

The neighbors also share a 725 km boundary in the Bay of Bengal. There, India’s goal is to boost maritime security cooperation with ASEAN as part of a broader effort under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad — a grouping with the U.S., Japan and Australia that, analysts say, is designed to contain Chinese influence.

The reality on the ground in Myanmar, however, seriously complicates India’s strategic objectives, while creating other headaches for the government.

Last week, New Delhi issued a travel advisory, telling Indian nationals to avoid nonessential visits to Myanmar. “Those already living in Myanmar are advised to take precaution and avoid travel to the regions affected by violence,” warned the Ministry of External Affairs, which asked Indians in Myanmar to register with its mission in Yangon.

Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson for the ministry, confirmed to reporters on Nov. 16 that “there has been movement of Myanmar nationals to the Indian side” as a result of fighting in the Rikhawdar area of Myanmar’s Chin state, opposite Zokhawthar in India’s northeastern state of Mizoram.

Apart from Mizoram, three other northeast Indian states — Arunachal Pradesh, strife-torn Manipur and Nagaland — share boundaries with Myanmar.

“We are deeply concerned with such incidents close to our border,” Bagchi said, adding that New Delhi wanted “cessation of the violence and resolution of the situation through constructive dialogue.”

“We reiterate our call for return of peace, stability and democracy in Myanmar,” he said, noting that since 2021 “a large number of Myanmar citizens have been taking refuge” in India. He did not give an exact figure.

In a report from Zokhawthar on Nov. 18, Indian news agency ANI said that many women and children were among 5,000 Myanmar refugees who had taken shelter in six camps in the area. The report said the Mizoram government was providing them with food, clothes and medical attention. A couple of days later, ANI quoted the top state police officer, Anil Shukla, as saying that around 75 Myanmar army personnel who fled resistance attacks on their camps were “rescued” and repatriated.

Indian authorities “have been handling the situation appropriately on humanitarian grounds,” Bagchi said.

Singh, the strategic analyst, views the current situation as “doubly troubling” for India.

“First, a weak Myanmar strengthens China’s role in the region. Second, India’s northeast is in turmoil as the Meitei-Kuki conflict in Manipur has not yet subsided and is beginning to have its impact on peaceful Mizoram as well.”

Common ethnic links across the border also mean that the turmoil in northeast India and unrest in Myanmar “are threatening to have a compounding impact on India,” he said.

India “has to be prepared for a change were it to happen after a prolonged struggle in Myanmar,” Singh added. “But, the bigger danger is that Myanmar could get splintered before things settle down. And China could profit by it.”

Myanmar’s Khawmawi village, as seen from the Indian village of Zokhawthar on Nov. 14.   © Reuters

China and India are locked in their own tense border dispute, which sparked a deadly clash in 2020, as well as competition for influence across South Asia.

Singh noted that China has vital economic as well as strategic interests in Myanmar. “China is closely monitoring the situation [in Myanmar] and keeping its channels of communication open with the military regime on the one hand and the rebels on the other.” China said it would begin “combat training activities” on its side of the border after a supply convoy bound for Myanmar went up in flames.

Meanwhile, despite its calls for restoration of democracy, India has also maintained some ties with the Myanmar regime. A United Nations report released in May estimated that Indian entities had shipped $51 million worth of military-related exports to Myanmar since the military leadership took power.

To a question on these exports, Bagchi said that the two countries, as neighbors, engage and cooperate on various issues. “Whatever actions we take are in the light of our interests,” he said. “We are certainly cognizant of our responsibilities, and we keep in mind all factors.”

Depending on how the conflict in Myanmar progresses, analysts see more complications for India ahead.

Raj Kumar Sharma, a senior research fellow at NatStrat, an independent think tank working on India’s national security and foreign policy, said it would be difficult for India if resistance forces control border posts and trade routes with India. Ongoing instability in Myanmar, he added, could further delay Indian infrastructure projects in Myanmar aimed at boosting connectivity with Southeast Asia, in particular the Kaladan Multi-Modal transit-transport facility between the two countries, and a trilateral highway stretching into Thailand.

“The situation in Myanmar is complex and fluid,” he said. “India would need some policy modifications in case the rebels make some [more] serious gains on the ground.”