Myanmar’’s junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who ousted the elected government in a coup on Feb. 1, 2021, presides at an army parade on Armed Forces Day in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, March 27, 2021.
But despite the junta’s dramatic failures since late last year, and the loss of much of its control of Myanmar’s periphery, the military is not on the brink of collapse and is likely to remain ensconced and unleashing air strikes and “chaotic violence” for some time, the International Crisis Group said.
“Myanmar’s junta leader’s days in charge could be numbered,” the group said in its report.
Commander in chief Min Aung Hlaing overthrew an elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in early 2021, ending a decade of tentative reforms in a country that had been ruled by the military since 1962.
The coup triggered widespread protests that evolved into an insurgency in which pro-democracy activists have taken up arms and joined forces with ethnic minority guerrilla forces battling for self-determination for decades.
Several insurgent groups launched offensives late last year and have made striking progress in some areas, particularly in border regions.
“The military’s recent failures have been dramatic … some of the most rapid, significant defeats in the Myanmar military’s history, including some particularly humiliating ones,” the Brussels-based group said.
A spokesman for the junta was not immediately available for comment.
Morale in the overstretched military has collapsed undermining its ability to launch counter offensives, a corrosive effect that would be difficult for the regime to reverse, said the group, adding that the blame is falling on Min Aung Hlaing.
“The military-connected elite in Naypyitaw see him as bearing responsibility, and they are expressing their frustration with unprecedented candor. Senior regime officials and military officers are now briefing against the junta leader in meetings with diplomats, local business leaders, journalists and personal acquaintances – something that seemed unimaginable just six months ago.”
But with no institutional mechanism for removing Min Aung Hlaing, it was difficult to predict if or when other officers might move against him.
“Given the level of discontent, he could nevertheless face a plot to remove him,” the group said. .
However, the junta leader’s departure would be unlikely to end Myanmar’s war.
“While a change in leader could present an opportunity for the regime to seek an off-ramp from the crisis, the level of polarization in society triggered by the coup and subsequent violence has entrenched a siege mentality in the higher echelons of the military and a sense that they are fighting an existential battle against resistance forces, it said.
“The regime is likely to remain ensconced in Naypyitaw for now, taking vengeance from the air and prompting chaotic violence for some time to come.”
source : Radio Free Asia