IS IRAN’S OPEN WAR WITH ISRAEL CHALLENGING THE STATUS QUO IN WEST ASIA?

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Explosions are seen in the skies of Jerusalem, following the attack from Iran on April 14, 2024. Photo : BDviews via  Anadolu Agency

Meghali Kachari & Dr. Santosh Kumar

The conflict between Palestine and Israel is majorly a product of the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which promised “the establishment in Palestine a national home for the Jewish people.” Since then, many peace negotiations have failed to draw any fruitful result that satisfies both Israel and Palestine. The conflict has led to strained relations between Israel and the Arab world. The relations have started developing only recently with a major effort of the Abraham Accords of 2020. Israel occupied the Gaza Strip from Egypt in the Six-day War of 1967. It had drawn Palestinians out of their homes from the mainland when it declared its statehood in 1948, leading Palestinians to take refuge in Gaza and live in the West Bank or the neighbouring Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. Hamas, a product of the Muslim Brotherhood, was founded in 1987 and has been in power in the Gaza Strip since 2007 after pushing Fatah, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian organization (PLO), out of power. Hamas was designated as a terrorist organization in 1997, but it continued to rule the Gaza Strip.

Recent Controversy:

The last quarter of 2023 brought in new tensions in the West Asia when, on October 7, Hamas attacked Israel, which was met by the latter with massive retaliation. Israel’s indiscriminate bombardment on the Gaza Strip, the world’s largest open prison, has raised the issue of the need for a Palestinian state once again. The war between Israel and Hamas has claimed 34049 lives since last year October. Peace negotiations have led to no conclusion, and both sides are adamant about their points. The world has lambasted Tel Aviv’s approach, with South Africa launching a case in the International Court of Justice accusing Israel of Palestinian genocide.

While the war goes on with heavy shelling over the Gaza Strip, the West Asia has been challenged by yet another conflict. Iran received Israel’s shelling of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1 as a threat to their sovereignty and security. Iran, in retaliation, fired 300 missiles at Israel, which had been intercepted by 99%. Israel’s interception, though a humiliation to Tehran’s motives, revealed that Iran has now come out of the shell of proxy wars. Israel was initially divided on its response to Iran’s attack. For some, a retaliatory response was not required because the attack had already been intercepted, and Israel should avoid any such act that might backtrack its improving relations with the Arab nations. Others believed that no retaliation from Tel Aviv would signal that it had yielded to the Iranian attack and, thus, portray it as weak.

Both Israel and Iran are revisionist powers seeking dominance in the region. Israel, quashing the demands of a Palestinian state, enjoys the support of the West, particularly the US, and has maintained a strong position as a Jewish state in the Islamic region. The ongoing conflict has, however, brought mixed feelings in the West towards Netanyahu’s adamant ideology. Even though Israel, as a state, is a US creation, it now finds Biden standing in support of a two-state solution. With such a policy of the US, Netanyahu might not be able to go against much of the international pressure that favors a Palestinian state as the end of all conflicts between the two communities. But the proposed solution still doesn’t guarantee a lasting peace, as today there is Hamas; tomorrow, it can be any other terror organization threatening the Jewish state, too. Also, Hamas’s reason cannot be justified on the grounds of the Palestinian issue, it being a terror organization. On the other hand, the Middle East has also seen escalations by Yemen-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. Houthis have claimed responsibility for the attack on Cargo ships in the Red Sea in the previous months, causing a blow to the world economy. The common point here is Iran, which openly supports Hamas’s and Houthi’s actions. What then threatens the international system is that Iran’s engagement in a war with Israel will greatly affect the world economy and security of the nations. That is because, with Iran’s geostrategic location, it can easily impose an embargo on ships by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, negatively affecting trade through the Persian Gulf region and the Gulf of Oman. Alongside, by supporting the Houthis, Iran gains indirect access to the important maritime choke points of Bab-el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal, affecting not only trade through the very important Red Sea and Gulf of Aden but also spread terrorism through the Arabian Sea to the south of Asia.

Israel, though, has been lambasted by world leaders and is under pressure from the US to agree to a two-state solution; no Arab nation has supported Iran’s act, which is still a positive point for Israel. Israel’s recent retaliation as a response to Iran’s April 13 attack creates a fertile ground for further escalations that might turn into a total war between the two revisionist states. Tel Aviv’s attack on the Isfahan province of Iran may further provoke Iran’s bidding towards developing nuclear weapons, which won’t benefit any, especially when Iran doesn’t appear as a ‘responsible’ state. If Iran does develop nuclear weapons, the dimension of power conflict in the region will take a new turn, with more states bidding for nuclear technology. This situation definitely will not ease the West, particularly Israel, the only non-Islamic nation at the heart of the Islamic region. Thus, the current escalations between Israel and Iran raise the concern of a situation of ‘brinkmanship,’ the consequences of which will not benefit any region in the world that already faces a crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Iran has further made the statement that it will respond to the Israeli attack on the Isfahan province of Iran, which is home to the very important Natanz Nuclear Power Plant. The conflict between Israel and Iran is much dreaded to develop into a full-fledged war. Israel might slump into a two-front war, and Iran might face more sanctions, where already its capital has been frozen in the banks of different nations. Israel has stopped its food aid to northern Gaza, as has been stated by the United Nations Agency Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. The conditions are already terrifying as Gaza is slipping into conditions of famine. The Israel-Hamas conflict has already made millions of refugees, leading to a refugee crisis and creating ‘a lost generation’ as millions of children now lose access to any education or any such opportunities. In a recent attack at an IVF centre in Gaza, 5000 specimens were destroyed, crushing the last hopes of many couples. Where the situations are already grim, further confrontations with Iran will only aggravate the situation, with Palestinians suffering the most, and the refugee crisis will bring in internal problems for the neighbouring nations, too.

Conclusion:

The global community and United Nations needs to come forward for a peaceful solution and the same time the Israel also needs to adopt the balanced approach with their neighbouring countries. World leaders should speak more in their actions than in words and pool in efforts to assist the suffering masses in Gaza and reach a peaceful negotiation between Israel and Hamas and between Israel and Iran, too. Iran’s engagement with terrorist organizations should also be checked to maintain peace in the region. In all this scenario, a blatant violation of Article 2 of the United Nations can be witnessed that calls on all its members to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence of the nation and thereby prohibits threat or use of force in international relations. Like recently how, Switzerland has taken the initiative to bring Russia and Ukraine face to face and generate world support to re-develop Ukraine. The best bet for both the states remains to retreat to their pre-conflict relations and come to negotiating terms. International organizations and nations should work for arbitration as part of global governance.

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