by Taj Hashmi 8 December 2022
In accordance with the Magnitsky Act, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on seven Bangladeshi law-enforcement officers in December 2021 to protect freedom and human rights in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi social media is abuzz this December with rumors of “impending” US sanctions on dozens (or even hundreds) of people directly involved in violations of human rights in the country. In one case, an “analyst” gave a precise number of “567 people”, in another case, “96” as the number of people most likely to be subject to US sanctions. In yet another “analyst’s” opinion, the Army Chief will simply flee after the US sanctions are imposed.
Nonetheless, one knows the sanctions have failed to restore democracy, freedom, and the rule of law in Bangladesh, as well as protect human rights and dignity. That’s why we are skeptical about the “impending” US sanctions! Nevertheless, what we see in social media about “impending” sanctions that will “eventually overthrow” the unelected, brutal and corrupt Hasina Regime are just wishful thoughts of Bangladeshis, who want democracy, freedom, and human rights restored in their country. Additionally, the rumors are a result of rumor-mongering by so-called Bangladeshi intellectuals and analysts, desperate to earn a reputation as credible intellectuals.
A brutal attack on the BNP office in Dhaka by police and ruling party goons on December 7th, which killed a BNP supporter and injured many, led US Ambassador Peter Hass to condemn the incident and call upon the government to stop engaging in such behavior. To justify its unprovoked attack on BNP supporters and arrests of numerous BNP leaders, police planted homemade bombs inside the BNP office. Ambassador Hass’ public statement may further embolden rumor-mongers:
The U.S. Embassy extends its condolences to the families of those killed and injured yesterday in Dhaka. We are concerned about reports of intimidation and political violence in Dhaka and call on everyone to respect the rule of law and to refrain from violence, harassment, and intimidation.
We encourage government authorities to investigate these reports of violence and to protect the fundamental freedoms of expression, association, and peaceful assembly.
Ambassador Peter Hass
The disenchantment in the US and among its allies in the East and West (including Japan and India) with the Hasina Regime is growing. Aside from being brutal and corrupt – lacking in respect for democracy, freedom, and human rights – the Hasina Regime is also blatantly pro-Chinese, posing serious security threats to the US and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region. It is China’s growing economic and military clout in Bangladesh, rather than its brutal one-party rule, that has become Hasina’s main nemesis. So much so that the Japanese ambassador to Bangladesh declared days before his departure that he was unaware of any other country where police stuff ballot papers to favor the ruling party other than Bangladesh. As we know, Japan has nurtured a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries since the end of World War II.
Sanctions have historically not been decisive in overthrowing regimes. The British sanctions against Napoleon through the Continental System did not work, just as the sanctions against Russia, Iran, and several other countries are ineffective today. In spite of US sanctions against seven Bangladeshi law enforcers, there has been no improvement in governance, freedom, or human rights under the Hasina Regime. As a result, one wonders what the Biden Administration would achieve by further sanctioning the Regime, which is unable to survive without Chinese financial assistance, and which, in the name of infrastructure development, plunders a substantial amount of money lent by China at high-interest rates, much higher than what it would have paid to the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund.
Is the US going to impose another round of sanctions against several Bangladeshi ruling party leaders – including the Prime Minister, as rumor-mongers claim? This is the mother of all questions in Bangladesh at present. The least likely! Accordingly, this writer believes Washington won’t sanction the Hasina Regime further. Even so, Biden has no choice but to facilitate the exit of the pro-Chinese Hasina Administration as soon as possible. At this point, Biden’s love for democracy and freedom isn’t as important as US geopolitical interests, which are focused on containing China and Russia.
In an attempt to overthrow the Hasina Regime, pro-Indian and anti-Hasina factions in the government and the ruling Awami League party are using law enforcement to inflame the already tense situation. Seemingly, the Home Ministry is no longer in charge of the police, which is also out of Hasina’s hands. While a US Assistant Secretary was in town, one saw the police action in and around the BNP office in Dhaka on December 7th as unnecessarily provocative. On December 7th, why did the police and Awami goons behave as they did? There are two possible explanations.
Firstly, this could be attributed to the typical death squad syndrome. The use of law enforcement agencies by governments as an instrument for eliminating, intimidating, and torturing opposition forces often backfires. Like Frankenstein’s monsters, they become ambitious and defiant against their patrons and manipulators. Secondly, some vested interest groups or entities – pro-Indian groups within and India, respectively, in the case of Bangladesh today – have become the agents provocateur for the Hasina Regime.
There is no longer any Indo-Bangladesh bonhomie. It prevailed up to 2015, while the Hasina Administration maintained some distance from Xi Jinping’s. Modi, however, is no longer interested in protecting the Hasina Regime as integral to its strategic interests after Hasina went ahead with the Chinese proposal to build two deep sea ports in the Bay of Bengal with Chinese money and technology – a threat to India and the US militarily. If not avowedly pro-Indian, he would welcome any anti-Chinese or pro-Western administration in Bangladesh. Finally, Hasina’s decision to let China take on the Teesta Barrage project – near the Siliguri Corridor (aka the “Chicken Neck”) – leaves India too vulnerable to Chinese aggression in the future. Understanding the sudden police action against the BNP requires an understanding of this equation.
In sum, thanks to the 14-year-long bad governance under Hasina, her administration has been associated with brutality, corruption, abysmal violations of human rights and human dignity, capital flight to the tune of multiple billions of dollars, food and energy crisis, depletion of foreign currency reserves, and an increase in unemployment and inflation. This explains the phenomenal popularity of the BNP and other opposition groups. In light of the fact that fair elections have become a distant memory since 2008, the country is on the verge of witnessing a violent change of government by a mass uprising or popular military coup, similar to the ones in 1975. It is only through understanding Hasina’s tyranny that one can explain Bangladesh’s growing unrest, which threatens a civil war. Political events in the country are also being influenced by external forces for their own geopolitical interests, as expected. In addition to the West and its allies, the neighboring behemoth India is also playing a role. There is no way to predict what will happen on December 10th, the day the BNP and its allies will organize a mammoth rally in Dhaka, or its aftermath. There’s a possibility that the Hasina Administration could be overthrown not long after the December 10 BNP rally, which is likely to trigger a Regime Change movement.
Meanwhile, to further provoke BNP supporters, the police arrested Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the party’s secretary general, and Mirza Abbas, another top leader of the party, the day before the December 9 rally in Dhaka. Pro-Indian police operatives have arrested almost all top BNP leaders who favor non-violent, constitutional political methods. The party will likely resort to a one-point movement after their arrests, the removal of the Hasina regime by any means necessary. This would eventually trigger the elimination of Chinese influence in Bangladesh.
Taj Hashmi, Ph.D., FRAS is a historian-cum-cultural anthropologist, and is a retired professor of Security Studies at the APCSS, US. He has written several books and hundreds of journal articles, and newspaper op-eds. As an analyst of current affairs, and a human rights activist he regularly appears on talk shows about Bangladesh, South Asia, and World affairs. His latest book, Fifty Years of Bangladesh, 1971-2021: Crises of Culture, Development, Governance, and Identity, was published by Palgrave-Macmillan in May 2022.