by Qirat Mirza 22 September 2023
There is no permanent friend and foe in International relations. In the Cold War, we saw three blocs: the USA bloc, the Soviet bloc, and the countries that were not allied with any Power. With the end of the Cold War, the international system transformed from bipolar to a unipolar order, involving the disintegration of the USSR and the building of USA hegemony in the world. Now, the contemporary world order is becoming multipolar, with many powers commencing to rise and challenge the existing USA hegemony in the world because the USA is the only country in the world that is ahead of other countries in all domains, namely Finance, military, and technology. It also involves the countries that used to remain strong USA allies, namely India and Saudi Arabia.
According to the realists, when a new power begins operating, the existing authorities perceive it as a challenge and start dismantling its position in the international system.USA is also countering its rival China by making India its ally in South Asia therefore, he is supporting India in its conflict with China in the Indian Ocean as 90% of China’s oil trade passes through it. Though India has good relations with USA-sanctioned Russia, the USA is not levying sanctions on India because the strategic partnership with it is crucial for countering both China and Russia. To counter Chinas bigger project, namely Belt and Road initiative, which will connect it with Central Asia, Europe, and Middle East, they have deciding to build a corridor which will connect India with Central Asian counties, Europe and the Middle East. The decision was taken at the G20 summit recently held in India. On the other hand, its friend India is following a policy of nonalignment and has become a part of BRICS, an initiative taken by Russia and China to challenge the Western hegemony in the world and developed its bloc named South Globe bloc.
BRICS comprises about 25% of the earth’s land, and 42% of the world’s population and 23 countries have applied for its membership, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE. Russian attack on Ukraine taught the world that dollars are not only a currency but a weapon. As 80% of world trade and 59% of forex reserves of countries are in dollars. The USA has imposed sanctions on Russia and froze its currency reserves. On the other hand, 6% of world trade is in China’s currency Yuan. China was well aware of the power of dollars therefore, he was not launching an attack on Taiwan, but he was making preparations for copping it in the form of BRICS and developing his currency. They are planning to build currency into an alternative to Dollars that will be backed by gold. Therefore, from March 2023, BRICS countries are increasing their gold reserves. For instance, China has increased by 31 tons, India by 3 tons, and Russia by 102 tons. Secondly, the two USA-sanctioned countries as a member of BRICS will be able to trade freely, namely Russia and Iran.
Saudi Arabia, a USA strategic partner based on mutual interests over the past 80 years in the Middle East, is changing its sides. Saudia is not only applying for membership of BRICS but has decided to cooperate with Moscow in putting cuts in oil supply and getting closer to USA rivals. Russia and Saudia are the biggest oil producing countries and major players in global energy market OPEC. They have deliberated to decrease the supply of oil to keep it in conformity with demand therefore Saudi will levy oil cut of 1 million per barrel and Russia will impose oil cuts of 3 million per barrel. USA, India and China are the biggest oil importers in the world because of their huge size. China is also an important factor in Oil cuts decision because it is having slow growth and consumption and demand of oil have decreased in China therefore they believe they don’t need to produce in such amount. Secondly, the spike in oil prices in global markets will immensely benefit oil producing countries. We can see the spike in global oil prices from 60$ to 90$ per barrel. This decision will have repercussions for the biggest economy like the USA will lead to increase, inflation and unemployment by increasing prices of commodities. Therefore, USA also threatened Saudi Arabia to have consequences if it keeps imposes oil cuts in 2023 but Saudi is not paying heed towards it because it has found another partner namely China who also played a role of mediator in bringing confederation in Saudi- Iran relations. In addition, it has signed an agreement with China to develop ballistic missiles.
After World War II, USA shaped in global order and laid foundations of peacekeeping organizations, namely United Nations, military alliance NATO and Financial organizations IMF and World Bank. Calling itself “leader of free world”, maintained its superpower in the dominions through economic pressure, military force, covert action and diplomatic leverage. USA is a still global military superpower but military power has not sufficient enough to sustain her hegemony. USA lost its leadership role in the world due to its embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, dispute by nuclear negotiation with Iran and global energy policy with Saudi Arabia. The developing multipolar world order involving china leading role in world as apparent from its development of armed artificial Irelands in disputed south China Sea , Djibouti military base and its expanding footprints in Asia, middle East and Latin America, along its development of multilateral institutions namely Shingai cooperation organizations, Asia infrastructure development and Regional comprehensive economic partnership. The changing geopolitical conflicts are causing countries to change their loyalty, which is a challenge for the hegemony the USA used to possess.