by Inshal Haider 1 August 2023
The U.S.-China relationship is not only creating complications for Pakistan but also influencing the relations with other regional players. As China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region is challenged by the increasing cooperation between India and the U.S., Pakistan is aware of the implications of this development for its interests. The increase in the crisis between U.S. and China rivalry will fuel the fire between India and Pakistan as both countries are advancing in their arms and intelligence capabilities. And this could reduce the chances of cooperation between China and the U.S. in the future.
Kashmir
The rescission of the autonomous status of Kashmir and Ladakh by Modi, Indian Prime Minister in August 2019 heightened the tensions between India and Pakistan across the borders within the Himalayan ranges in which China is also involved. In Eastern Ladakh, the border standoff between China and India created an opportunity for Pakistan to push back India along the disputed lines of control, without using cross-border militancy to support Kashmir Insurgency. However, this scenario created a two-front threat for India that it could face Pakistan and China simultaneously which will further destabilize the already tense Indo-Pakistan relationships.
U.S. political strategists see the chances for Washington to enhance and hasten its cooperation with New Delhi because of the ongoing border dispute between India and China. The economic troubles of India, the need to distribute military resources to its land borders with China, and the increasing resilience on Russian issues are some challenges hampering the potential for the partnership with America’s Indo-Pacific approach.
Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy to help India in addressing the continental challenges posed by China is primarily based on maritime cooperation that can cause serious implications for Pakistan. The announcements of the American Plans on the heels of the October U.S.-Idia2+2 Dialogue in sharing geospatial intelligence and sophisticated missile technology with India caused a serious security threat to Pakistan. Earlier, On February 2020 a million-dollar deal inked during President Trump’s visit to India had explicitly concerns from Pakistan Foreign Office. Though, an abrupt attempt shift is still unlikely currently.
India
Pakistan’s strategic planners due to the internal reverberation and threat of international sanctions strengthening the country’s conventional and offensive and defensive nuclear capabilities are unable to use proxies. An increase in the number of nuclear weapons or arms stays an issue of concern that is causing the threat while at the same time, deterrence is playing a vital role in the region’s stability. Pakistan is ranked as the most improved country in terms of security and control measures. However, in the South Asia arms race Pakistan strategically respond to India and so as India by the term ‘Strategic Chain’ in South Asia’s nuclear arms race. But here India must respond not only to Pakistan but also China as India engages in conflicts with both countries, China, and Pakistan. Where in the South Asian region, China responds to India, and on the other hand, it must deal with the U.S. Where the escalation in the number of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat to cooperating with Washington and Beijing if a conflict takes place between India and Pakistan. Any wide-reaching change away from the Gulf States aligned with the U.S., such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, to a state’s alignment with China-backed involving, Iran, Turkey, and Malaysia. That would be a poor decision and an overreach.
Saudi Arabia
As described earlier, U.S.-China relations are also affecting the international relations of Pakistan as Pakistan has seen that Saudi-Arabia is showing reluctance in supporting Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir due to the alliance of Saudi-Arabia with the U.S. While China is ready to supply $1 billion to repay the loan of Saudi-Arab. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia with the other Gulf States is developing closer ties with India. Pakistan looks to connect CPEC with the wider BRI initiative and diversify its sources of investment so its possibility should remain open. Pakistan will have to navigate to regional sensitiveness, as it deals with diverse groups Muslim majority countries with different views on different issues including their relations with China.
Gwadar
Pakistan’s decision to transfer management of the Gwadar seaport from Singapore to China in 2013 and the development of the Gwadar seaport is a threat to the regional players. As Pakistan is developing its Gwadar seaport with the help of China in the project of CPEC is suspicious of the regional players as there is no evidence that Pakistan will not use it in a dual or naval way to enhance its naval power. Moreover, its naval drills with China in the Arabian Sea are also included in it. Chinese naval presence in Pakistan will cause tensions between Pakistan and the Gulf states, which host significant U.S. military and naval presence. Therefore, it is unlikely to be accepted by Pakistan. In January 2019 announcement the U.S. found some reassurances that Saudi Arabia would fund a $10 billion oil refinery project in Gwadar, given its close ties to Saudi Arabia.
Iran and Afghanistan
The draft deal of $400 billion between Iran and China is a new challenge for Pakistan’s delicate regional diplomacy. This deal will dwarf the collaboration between India and Iran at the Chabahar deep seaport, which is a strategic project for both countries. This port supplied India with an alternative route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. This is a counterweight to China’s influence in the region, most probably the investments in the Gwadar port of Pakistan. However, the deal between Iran and China undermined the interests of India and strengthened the regional position of China. This could be a threat to Pakistan as it must balance Iran and China while managing the rivalry with India. Similarly, Iran must face its doubts about sanctions and fear of economic exploitation by China. Pakistan has cautiously welcomed China in Iran to extend its economic reach and China’s trying to replicate CPEC in Iran may not serve to supplant India entirely. This can lead to the opportunity for Pakistan to be involved in trade routes of Afghanistan via Iran, only if the U.S. approach by the Biden administration lessens the maximum pressure.
The intensified are U.S.-China competition in Afghanistan has complicated Pakistan’s regional relations which is one area where the two powers are likely to agree on future stability despite their border rivalry. The own threat perception of Pakistan is driven by the role of Pakistan in Afghanistan vis-à-vis India and these strategic interests have not been affected by U.S.-China competition. China wants to stabilize Afghanistan and by the evidence China has reached some understanding with the Taliban to safeguard its economic interests in the country. Yet, within the closest proximity since China is not keen on seeing an upsurge of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, U.S.-China competition is not further complicated in Afghanistan.
A stable Afghanistan will be a great benefit for the region, especially for Pakistan and the economy of Afghanistan will also get better if it imports goods via Gwadar Port which is part of the CPEC. In this way, it will attract U.S. and other countries to invest in this region and Afghanistan for connectivity and stability, possibly along with the Chinese investment.