In yet another attempt to establish itself as the dominating world force, China is now organizing the One Belt One Road Forum meeting in Beijing on
May14-15.
Ambitious and unrealistic project
The OBOR project involves a land route running from inner China to southern Europe via The Netherlands. It also includes a sea route connecting Shanghai port with the end point of the land based route in Venice via India and Africa.
The project would involve an expenditure of about 5 trillion US dollar and the assets planned include ports, roads, airports, infra for IT, telecom, etc. The project is supposed to connect 65 countries and half of the world population of 4.4 billion and 30% of the global economy. Implementation of the project could take around 40 years.
OBOR is a very ambitious project and even can be termed as an unrealistic project. China knows this too well as well as several other countries who would participate in the meeting.
Is OBOR all about the trade?
What is particularly significant for China about OBOR project is that 16 of China’s 27 provinces are covered in the vision.
Apart from providing tremendous economic and trade opportunities for China, the OBOR project will enable China to become the nerve center of the world economic and business activities which will inevitably lead to its political dominance of the world.
China claims that OBOR is all about trade and it has no political objective. However, this view will have no takers.
Why are other countries participating?
Apparently, several countries including the United States and Western nations are involved in the OBOR forum more as a matter of curiosity rather than any hope or faith in the ultimate objective of the forum.
Apart from curiosity, another reason that several countries in the world are participating in the meeting is to explore the trade opportunities that they can exploit in China. They want to ensure that they would not be left out and at present, they lose nothing by attending the meeting.
Is not U N more appropriate forum for OBOR project?
The main point of concern for several countries in the world is that this OBOR concept has been initiated by China and not by a neutral or world body like United Nations.
The proceedings of this forum cannot be viewed in the same manner, as one would see the recent Paris climate conference where United Nations took the initiative. Even this well-meaning Paris climate conference does not have a smooth way forward, as the Trump administration in the US is now objecting to decisions of the Paris climate conference, which threatens to derail the plans and objectives. Will the China initiated OBOR project have better prospects?
Concerns about China
The world knows that the present government in China is highly ambitious and self-centered and wants to dominate the world both economically and politically. Certainly, China would desire that OBOR project should move on in the way that it wants and with China being the most important part of it with a most significant role in it.
China’s expansionist policies have already caused huge concern to the neighboring countries, which are watching China’s actions with considerable anxiety. Countries like Japan and South Korea have military differences with China. Vietnam, Philippines, and other nations have disputes with China over the South China Sea. India has a serious objection to the fact that the Belt and Road plan violates India’s sovereignty, as it passes through the disputed Pakistan occupied Kashmir. China ‘s economic corridor project now being implemented by it in Pakistan is being viewed by India with high anxiety due to the military implications.
Even while attending the forum meeting, the underlying fact that China has been occupying the Tibet forcibly and is ruthlessly suppressing the local people cannot be ignored by the countries attending it. In the case of Tibet, China has ignored the world opinion and give an impression that it believes that force will always triumph.
The question uppermost that would be in the mind of the attending countries is whether China would become more transparent about its plans and whether it would follow internationally accepted standards on environment, labor and trade and political relationships in future.
All said and done; the Chinese government is a dictatorial one with one party ruling the country with no permission for any other party to even exist. Personal liberty for the Chinese citizens remains a big question mark in China. The ruling clique in the Communist party has also differences and power struggle amongst the Politburo members is not unknown. Therefore, the stability of leadership in China may also be a matter of speculation.
What would satisfy China now?
The world today is full of conflicts, with every country acting in its own interests without world view. Is the world going to become so different in the next forty years to become conflict free, which would be a precondition for the One Belt One Road project mooted by China to succeed?
In short, the OBOR meeting in Beijing would be used as an opportunity by China to make it clear to the world that it is already a leader or would be a leader very soon amongst the world countries. China will be satisfied with the proceedings of the meeting if this objective would be achieved, while other countries attending the conference will leave Beijing wondering as to what they have achieved.
1.U have answered your own question why other countried are attending—to explore and not to be left out.
2.China has proved that they r capable of realising such projects by making that goods train a reality–from London to Beijing/Shanghai.
3.Of course, it is a moot point whether we r right by not attending(Of course, our Foreign Service establishment is obsessed with the Silk Route itself for years.When I wanted to go to Urumci in 1996 for promotion of tourism,they told me not to go because it is in theSilk Route.) Dr G.Sundaram.
Are we becoming more ‘defensive’ rather than opening up beyond our borders? No doubt India and China have long-standing border disputes since the early sixties. In fact, in the East, China had occupied the Indian territory right up to the foothills of Assam in 1962. Without any counter-offensive by India, China withdrew to its pre-62 India-China War positions along the McMahon Line – which China has never accepted as IB. Whereas India and Pakistan have fought four wars and endless border skirmishes, India’s China front has been relatively calmer.
Why couldn’t the Indian strategists think about building up its Blue Water naval capabilities before China and pre-empt China’s initiatives of building ports, airports, roads, railways, pipelines..even in the Indian Ocean? Why couldn’t India reach out to the Central Asian neighbours with similar cooperative offers before China?
And finally, let me stick out my neck to say something that would stun our strategists. What if India had preceded Pakistan and offered China to develop an India-China Economic Corridor by developing a CPEC-like highway all the way from Kashgar in Xinjiang to Kanyakumari? Or a highway connecting Lhasa to Dharamsala to Colombo in Srilanka (Call it Buddha Pilgrim-cum-Economic Corridor)?
In boxing, if you are shorter and the opponent is taller, the only way you can win is by going very close to him (getting inside his defences). Running away is suicidal.
CONCISE & GOOD. Countries that had nothing to loose did well to attend. Countries that had something to loose ,would be stupid ,if they attended. Countries that had to gain most was China dreaming ,realistically though , to dominate most of the planet one fine day. Pakistan has been the second beneficiary in ratifying its servitude to China , at the moment, for ever.
Er Omkar Razdan , Author & Social Activist
The writer has a negative attitudes towards China and Pakistan. He seems like an Indian nationalist who love to give lectures to others he does not like. My suggestion and advise would be; "Hey wake up and be real. Do something positive in the region and just not export your supremacy".