by Kazi Emdadul Haq 21 March 2021
It has been a continuing exciting discussion among the interlocutors as to what would be the Joe Biden’s policy towards South Asia, especially after former US President Donald Trump’s assertive policy towards India to contain China’s inexorable rise. Lately, this region has become hotspots of geostrategic and geopolitical importance: blow to democracy due to Myanmar’s coup on 1st February; Rohingya refugee issue; Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) allegedly to contain China’s rise; Ladakh incident. All these issues have become the test cases for Biden administration. Above all, China’s economic influence and soft power through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have kept on increasing in this region, especially after the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement signed on 15 November 2020. Ironically, India opted not to be part of it.
Having recognised the India’s role as inevitable in the strategic game as a major player, the USA identified the importance of India by their side so that the challenges mentioned earlier may be addressed in a better way, especially when the USA is in strategic competition with China. The reflections of which we see that, during Trump era, the USA inked some important agreements with India besides Trump administration’s assertion: ‘India is America’s trusted partner in this region’.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s open support for Donald Trump before the US election in November 2020 and Trump’s subsequent election defeat, erred and confused, Modi had been in hiatus. And, soon after, Modi received a phone call from Biden in the 2nd week of February right after Burmese military junta’s putsch, as usual, Indian media – who are adept at embellishing things – started hurling blissful hope of a new relationship with the US.
Although India is considered to be the cornerstone for the US to attain its goal in this region, will the Biden administration rely on India or trust India’s capability? After all sharp ideological differences exist between the Modi government and the Biden administration.
In his autobiography, former President Pranab Mukherjee said that Modi excessively played up his friendship with foreign leaders. During the visit of Trump to India, Modi went beyond official protocol, which was witnessed by the world and generated lots of interesting discussion in the media. “Howdy Modi“, an outlandish gathering of 50,000 Indian American on 22 September 2019 in Houston, Texas, in the presence of Trump, demonstrated a desperate attempt of Modi’s extreme right-wing support to another brazen right-wing Trump. Even the Indian flags were seen during the US Capitol attack on 06 January 2021 caused embarrassing situation for Modi.
In his election campaign agenda, Joe Biden was critical of Modi’s decision over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Registration of Citizen (NRC). The US Vice President Kamala Harris has warned India on the Kashmir Muslim issue, and said in October 2019, “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping track of the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.” She was also critical about ‘human rights abuses’ in Kashmir following the revocation of Article 370. She expressed her dissatisfaction when India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar refused to meet Indian American Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal in the US Capitol during the former’s visit to the USA in December 2019. It is needless to mention that the USA banned Modi in 2002 from entering the country for almost a decade for leading the anti-Muslim pogroms while he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat.
Modi came to power for a second time in May 2019 with an overwhelming victory. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) are exceptionally successful in revitalizing communal polarization through hate speech targeting Muslims. Winning an election by capitalizing religious sentiment may be triumphant for BJP but will bring good neither for India nor for neighbouring countries. The ‘human rights’ office stopped its operation in India, the largest democratic country globally, in September 2020, citing India’s non-cooperation, which had been operating its office in India since 1966. Modi’s diplomatic prowess was going to open the economic ties with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, but these countries have also “woken up to the scourge of extremist Hindutva”.
On global issues, the USA also differs from India in many ways. Over the Rohingya issue, Modi took the Myanmar military junta’s side, eschewing the ‘human rights’ consideration. The USA imposed trade sanctions on Myanmar from 2003 to 2016, and in mid-2019, the USA imposed an embargo against Myanmar’s senior military leaders and condemned the military coup. In contrast, India rolled out red-carpet reception in New Delhi for the senior military leaders of Myanmar during their visits in 2012 and 2017. When Britain has suspended its training programme for the Myanmar military for their genocidal acts in Rakhine, India opened the Myanmar military door to train.
Till now, India remains a large arms importer from Russia, who was once India’s most significant partner during the cold war. New Delhi almost finalized the purchase of 21 MiG-29s and 12 Su-30MKI fighters and, most notably, Russia’s self-propelled S-400 missile system costing US$5.5 billion. It is almost certain that US sanctions would be invoked if New Delhi goes ahead with the purchase. India’s diplomacy has kept on teetering as it vacillates between two superpowers – America and Russia.
‘Economic entrenchment’ is the central pillar to play a meaningful regional leadership role. Despite having all the elements to become a successful economic giant in this region, India has failed to rise, whereas China has risen to the summit of economic strength. Given all the potentials, India’s rise compared to China is negligible. China’s economy has grown from US$6 trillion to US$14 trillion in 2019, but the Indian economy remained less than US$6 trillion.
Despite lots of initiatives, the Indian economy is down by 24% in the post-Covid recovery stage, which is among the world’s highest. ‘World Economic Forum’, the Inclusive Development Index (IDI), has placed India at 62 in the ‘2018 rankings’, which is lowest in South Asia. According to the 2020 Global Hunger Index(GHI), out of 107 countries, China’s rank is within 1-17, whereas India is 94, the lowest in South Asia except for war-torn Afghanistan. When India’s most of the indexes are low compared to South Asian countries, how the USA would be confident in trusting India as a strong and capable partner to counter China?
India’s External Affairs Minister J Shubramaniam claims that India should take risks and join the US alliance. Repleted and well expounded with evidence mentioned above, Biden with his venerable antiquity probably will question Modi’s such actions while taking South Asian strategy.
The fact is that India maintains de facto influence over its relatively smaller neighbouring countries. Unfortunately, its lack of economic prowess regressed India from financial investments into the neighbouring countries, which invited China to fill the gap. Thus, Asian countries are getting influenced by china. Instead of uplifting relationships with neighbouring countries, Modi’s cohort Amit Shah kept on pouring derogatory remarks towards the neighbouring countries, inflicting chasm to diplomatic relations. As a result, India is deprived of moral support from its neighbouring countries, which was palpable during the Ladakh incident. Modi could be a demagogue only within the Hindu community, which the USA would not support.
Notwithstanding, the US wants India to play a regional power player mainly to contain China, but India’s internal affairs and its foreign policy dichotomy dissuade them from achieving regional power. Instead of blaming neighbouring countries, it is better that India understands regional sentiments, thus takes corrective measures accordingly through their appropriate actions. South Asian countries should not have any problem to adjust themselves with India as a great power provided India becomes economically vibrant and wakes up from racial parochialism which would be also desirable for the USA.
Commodore Kazi Emdadul Haq, BSP, ndu, psc, BN (retd)
Founding Member, Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD)