Bangladesh is seeking to diversify its foreign policy and reduce its dependence on India by joining Asean although the prospects of Dhaka being a new member of the regional bloc is unlikely for now, according to observers, as it continues to grapple with the impact of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s downfall.
Other analysts, however, say Bangladesh’s experience in international maritime arbitration and cultural links with the region could favour its application.
Last Wednesday, Bangladesh’s chief adviser to the interim government Muhammad Yunus sought the support of Malaysia for its bid to join the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
He raised the issue during a meeting in Dhaka with Malaysian High Commissioner Haznah Md Hashim who said that her country – Asean’s chairman next year – would convey Yunus’s request.
Yunus, 84, returned from France to Bangladesh last month to take up the monumental task of steering democratic reforms and restoring stability in the crisis-hit country. His appointment came after 76-year-old Hasina fled the country to India on August 5 by helicopter after a students-led revolution overthrew her 15 years of iron-fisted rule.
Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia, said it was natural for Bangladesh to approach Malaysia as the Southeast Asian country has a Muslim-majority population and was set to become Asean chair in 2025.
Bangladesh was also likely interested in bringing in more trade and investment from Southeast Asia through Asean membership, Oh said. Most Asean countries are sympathetic to the political and socio-economic challenges faced by Bangladesh and see great potential in its development, according to Oh, who is also a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
“However, Bangladesh must further stabilise itself politically and socioeconomically before it could realistically apply for membership in any regional grouping,”said Oh.
“With the Myanmar crisis very much still at hand, Asean is understandably in no mood, not to mention rush, to admit another member still plagued with many challenges,”Oh said, who referred to Timor Leste’s protracted process towards Asean membership.
Timor Leste’s President José Ramos-Horta has expressed confidence that the country is expected to become the bloc’s latest member next year, according to a statement by the Malaysian embassy in Dili.
Oh said the geographical distance between Bangladesh and Asean countries could also hinder its plan to join the bloc.
Since Myanmar’s coup in February 2021, Asean has been divided over the country’s crisis. Some members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have been critical of Myanmar’s military rulers while others such as Thailand preferred to engage directly with the junta.
Ishrat Hossain, a doctoral candidate in international relations at the University of Oxford, said it was unlikely that Bangladesh would become a full Asean member given the bloc’s Southeast Asia focus.
A more likely scenario was for Bangladesh to become Asean’s sectoral dialogue partner as Dhaka had previously expressed interest in such a capacity to engage in trade, investment, climate change and transnational security issues, Ishrat said.
Bangladesh’s plan to join Asean could reflect its desire to pivot away from Hasina’s “India-centric foreign policy” and towards the country’s eastern neighbours, Ishrat added.
Hasina had maintained strong ties with India’s top leaders throughout her rule. Her administration signed 10 agreements in areas ranging from maritime cooperation, digital partnership and rail connectivity to space technology during her visit to New Delhi in July.
Anu Anwar, a non-resident associate at Harvard University’s Fairbank Centre for Chinese Studies, said anger over India-Bangladesh ties expressed during the student-led protests has also prompted Bangladesh’s bid for Asean membership.
“[It] was partly motivated by a backlash against India’s overwhelming interference in Bangladesh’s state affairs,” he said. As such, Dhaka viewed Asean membership as a platform to “mitigate India’s influence” and strengthen its global standing, he added.
Many Bangladeshis and international observers have accused Hasina and her administration of having rigged the country’s last three general elections including the latest on January 7. Hasina secured a fourth consecutive term in power at the election that was held when almost all top leaders of the main opposition party and over 25,000 of its activists were behind bars.
India, however, welcomed the election result, triggering many Bangladeshis to launch an “India out” campaign as they accused New Delhi of supporting Hasina to protect its interests.
Bangladesh’s candidacy would be relevant for Asean due in part to the ongoing Rohingya crisis with thousands of people from the ethnic group having fled to the South Asian country, Malaysia and Indonesia in recent years, Anu said.
The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has also driven around 8,000 Rohingya Muslims to escape to Bangladesh in recent months, according to Bangladeshi officials.
Asean and Bangladesh could join hands to tackle common challenges such as drug and human trafficking, Anu said.
“Bangladesh’s experience in resolving international maritime disputes through the UN’s International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (Itlos) could also provide valuable expertise to Asean members,” he added.
An international court ruled in favour of Dhaka in 2014 on a dispute over the delimitation of the maritime boundary between India and Bangladesh. In 2012, Bangladesh won a dispute at Itlos, which prevented Myanmar from exercising its economic and territorial control in the Bay of Bengal stretching over 200 nautical miles.
Asean members Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Indonesia are locked in long-standing disputes with China over territories, infrastructure development and resource exploration in the South China Sea.
Hence, Bangladesh’s potential integration into Asean was “feasible” given its strategic position and its historical and cultural connections to Southeast Asia, Anu said.
“As the region’s geopolitical landscape continues to shift, Bangladesh’s alignment with Asean’s interests and challenges could justify its consideration for membership.”
source : scmp