Why India Lacks a Great Power Status

It is evident that to become a regional hegemon; one has to believe in an expansionist policy that means expanding across one’s territory and building the most powerful state in one’s region. Also, the state also has to check the power of the other states in its region for dominance. No doubt, India practices the expansionist policy in its region to dominate weak states, however, China and Pakistan also have projected their military might across South Asia for the same reason.

In South Asia including China, all the three nuclear states are battling for survival and enthusing for becoming a regional hegemon. It is largely held that hegemons are essentially status quo powers. However, states always conduct a rigorous research for arms build-up to change the behavior of others or for military and nuclear superiority.

For becoming regional hegemon or great power for survival, the ideal position is the main element. For instance, it is quite difficult to attack the United Kingdom because of the large body of water that surrounds it. Similarly, one has to cross the mighty oceans to attack the United States. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, talks about the reasons why the United Kingdom and the United States remained great powers from the last century although fought several deadly wars. He is of the view that mighty oceans are the great hindrance for states to attack both superpowers. The other factors include a strong economy, technology, large population, huge conventional force, strategic nuclear force, and clever strategy to win wars. Furthermore, both the US and the UK passes bucks to others states to check the power of potential hegemons in Europe and Asia.

The US adopted numerous policies in the past as an offshore balancer to check the potential hegemons in Asia like China, Japan, and Russia. Japan has now strong ties with the US. Therefore, it is not a potential rival to the US. However, both China and Russia after their rapid industrialization and arms build-up have challenged the US’s hegemony or interests in Asia particularly Northeast Asia.

India, which lacks, a great power status due to multiple factors determinately ties with the US and Israel to counter China and Pakistan in South Asia. Ironically, it is not India but the US which confronts a potential hegemon China in South Asia by preferring buck-passing to India rather than directly face China’s threat to the US.

Although India is surrounded by water and mountains, it lacks an ideal position to become a regional hegemon. For instance, India, Pakistan, and China are vulnerable to each other due to unresolved territorial disputes with close borders. There are fewer chances to thwart a major destruction after accidentally missiles were launched against each other. Surprisingly, the deadly missiles loaded with nukes would travel in a few minutes to reach the target location for maximum destruction.

Vipin Narang in his book Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era is of the same view that states that share an unchecked land border have more fear than those buffed by impassable terrain. He further states that Pakistan’s asymmetric escalation posture rests on its weak conventional strength than India. There is no strong natural obstacle that can stop all the three states from not attacking each other, and the conventionally superior proximate threat is always in the minds of Pakistani policy-makers that is why first-use-policy of nukes has been adopted by the Pakistan to respond a conventional attack from India.

However, it is also true that India’s strong conventional force failed to work as a deterrent for Pakistan and China. It seems that both nuclear and conventional force failed to bring stability in the region. It is clear from this point of view that India needs a vast resource to become a regional power against its primary envisaged threats (both internal and external).

It is a prerequisite to have a strong economy for achieving the status of great power or regional hegemon. Similarly, it is vital to have a peace and order inside the state in order to use the resources for balancing potential hegemon/rival in one’s area, however, the case is dissimilar with India, there are both civil and armed resistance movements in Kashmir and eastern states in India that resulted in the conversion of states wealth for curbing the domestic violence in India.

Apart from the domestic violence, the majority of the people happen to live below poverty line in India. The great powers like the US, the UK, France, Germany, and Japan have provided great opportunities to their people to progress and achieve a high standard of living through higher education and jobs. Recently, India ranked 100th out of 119 countries on global hunger index ahead of Pakistan but behind North Korea, Bangladesh, Iraq, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar, and China.

The zeal to become nuclear weapon power has forced India to channelize resources for military purposes. However, the nuclear weapons acquisition is not enough to claim itself a great power and nukes did not help India to win the seat at the UN Security Council. Similarly, China’s veto is important for the same.

Although India claimed that its nuclear programme is indigenous, nevertheless, there are enough reports that provide detailed information about the foreign assistance (nuclear reactors and fuel) for India’s nuclear programme. The nuclear equipment to conventional arms, strategic air bombers to missile defense system has been supplied by the foreign states to India; one can hardly imagine how much money in return India has paid.

India is a multi-religious state; however, Hindutva groups want to alter the Indian state into Hindutva region that is why after the BJP won the parliamentary election in May 2014, attack on minorities particularly Muslims have increased on the charge of disrespect to cow and inter-religious affairs and marriages. This is the fact that Muslims constitute about more than 14 percent of the population in India and it holds the second position in Muslim population worldwide after Indonesia. If Muslims are disturbed routinely, it might culminate into the escalation of violence. Also, the breakdown of income of the Muslims will affect the economy of India. Furthermore, after BJP came to power and particularly due to demonetization, the slowest pace of GDP has been recorded.

It has been accepted by the realists as well as by neo-realists that a strong economy, large population, the mighty conventional force have been the driving force for winning wars in the past and will continually shape the security policies of states in future. No doubt, India has a strong conventional force, but due to an unfavorable geo-strategic location surrounded by potential/regional hegemon like China and nuclear rival Pakistan, India is vulnerable to attack easily from outsiders. When we scroll the dusty pages of history, we come to know how Afghans, Mughals, and East India Company easily captured Indian territory and wars were fought to achieve their goals. Currently, though India has a strong army to protect its territory, China and Pakistan always challenge its security through infiltration and sub-conventional conflicts.

Despite India pass the buck to a weak state like Afghanistan to counter Pakistan, it might not dominate the region due to Pakistan’s ties with the United States and China. Similarly, China is nascent as a key player in Afghanistan by offering Afghan leader Mr. Ghani to join China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Reciprocally, India’s ambition to connect with Afghanistan through road needs Pakistan’s approval which seems difficult rather impossible that Pakistan will offer its territory.

Currently, India is not in a position to balance China in strategic nuclear force and conventional might due to domestic violence and other resistance movements has weakened India to dominate its potential hegemon in South Asia. Also, India’s GDP is lower than China’s. The three nuclear states have more potential conflict situations due to three dyads across which war might break out between the three belligerent states. The imbalances of power and the potential for miscalculation might enforce one state to attack another state. For instance, India-Pakistan wars, India-China territorial clashes, and infiltration. That is why Mearsheimer is worried about the unbalanced multipolar world where chances of wars are likely.

The extended conflicts are the biggest obstacle to India for becoming a regional hegemon and its inability to tackle the resistance movements thwarted its ambition to achieve a great power status. In a nutshell, it is the United States as an offshore balancer checking the power of the two nuclear states (India and Pakistan) in South Asia through hyphenation, de-hyphenation, dual-hyphenation policies and buck-passing to India to counter China.