ISLAMABAD — The appointment of Pakistan’s new interim prime minister, Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, has taken citizens, analysts and even some in the outgoing government by surprise.

The senator from Balochistan province was named over the weekend, after outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stepped aside to allow a caretaker administration to oversee elections, as stipulated in the constitution. The polls, however, are likely to be delayed well beyond the November deadline, meaning Kakar could have an extended run in the role.

He is expected to take the oath of office on Monday, Pakistan’s independence day.

“I am thankful to the Almighty for being given an opportunity to serve the people of Pakistan,” Kakar posted on X, formerly Twitter. “My gratitude also extends to all the stakeholders for reposing their trust in me to lead the country.”

Although he seemingly came out of nowhere, experts say Kakar was the military establishment’s pick.

Asad Toor, a political analyst in Islamabad, told Nikkei Asia that over a month ago Kakar was informed by the military leadership that he would be given an important position in the caretaker setup. Toor said Prime Minister Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party “fought for” Ishaq Dar, the well-known outgoing finance minister, “until the last moment, but he lost to the military’s supported candidate.”

Toor believes that through Kakar, the army intends to consolidate its grip on the political system. This follows a tumultuous year and a half in which popular former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote and directly challenged the army, demanding the generals stay out of politics, before his corruption conviction and arrest earlier this month.

Even if Khan, who is appealing, remains sidelined, Kakar and the army establishment will have their hands full with a struggling economy and security threats. This was underscored on Sunday when a convoy transporting Chinese workers in Balochistan’s port city of Gwadar, Pakistan’s Belt and Road hub, came under attack by separatist Baloch Liberation Army militants. The government said the assailants were killed in a gunfight following a bomb attack, while three soldiers were injured. The Chinese workers were unharmed, it said.

Kakar, who was born in Balochistan in 1971, graduated from the University of Balochistan in the 1990s with a degree in political science. He was also active in student politics. Later he went to the U.K. and enrolled in the law program at Birkbeck, University of London, although he did not graduate. In 2005, he returned to Pakistan.

Shahzada Zulfiqar, a veteran political analyst in Quetta, said he has known Kakar for the 25 years. “After spending a few years in [the U.K.] Kakar decided that his future was in the politics of Pakistan, and hence he returned home,” Zulfiqar said.

People gather to watch fireworks for Pakistan’s Independence Day in Karachi in the early hours of Aug. 14, 2023.   © AP

Kakar ran unsuccessfully for a National Assembly Seat in Quetta in the 2008 general election. In December 2015, he was appointed spokesperson for Balochistan’s chief minister during the PML-N government, building a media-savvy reputation that he maintains to this day. Over the years, he has been a vocal defender of the military’s policy in Balochistan, criticizing Baloch insurgents battling Pakistani security forces.

Kakar quit the PML-N in 2018 and, with the help of defectors from the party, won election to the Senate that March. A couple of months later, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) was formed, apparently to consolidate the control of pro-establishment politicians in the province. Kakar is understood to have been the brains behind the idea, which allegedly had the military establishment’s blessing.

Kakar had his own brush with Imran Khan in 2020, when he was expected to become federal minister of information in Khan’s government before being dropped at the last minute. Now, suddenly, he has been thrust into the national spotlight.

“No one was aware that Kakar would become the interim PM,” Syed Khursheed Shah, a leader in the Pakistan People’s Party and federal minister in Sharif’s government, told local media.

In preparation for his new job, Kakar announced his resignation from the Senate and relinquished his BAP membership on Sunday.

The analyst Zulfiqar framed the appointment in a positive light, saying it is the “first time a young and dynamic person has been chosen to be caretaker prime minister.” At the same time, he said the military establishment had prevailed over the political leadership in elevating him.

Not everyone in the hitherto ruling coalition is pleased. Akhtar Mengal, leader of the Balochistan National Party (Mengal) and a Sharif ally, criticized Kakar’s selection and suggested it has strained relations in the outgoing ruling coalition.

“The appointment of [Kakar] has widened the distance between allied parties,” Mengal wrote in an open letter to Nawaz Sharif, the elder brother of Shehbaz and the PML-N supremo.

Even so, analysts such as Zulfiqar expect the interim government to maintain heavy pressure on Khan and his opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Apart from being in jail, Khan is currently banned from politics for five years, and some leaders have split from the PTI. But Khan is still thought to command a large support base.

Many believe the ruling establishment wants to push back the elections to allow time for the economy to improve and for Khan’s support to dissipate. Ostensibly, the polls are expected to be delayed due a redrawing of the electoral map required by the most recent census. Deteriorating security is another reason to wait, highlighted by Sunday’s Balochistan attack as well as many other incidents in the northwest.

But Toor suggested there is more to it. “As of now, the elections are scheduled for March,” by which time the census adjustments should be made. “But if the Imran Khan problem is not fully dealt with by that time, then elections can be delayed [further],” Toor said.

Zulfiqar agreed that Kakar’s interim government could remain in place for a while. “Special legislation carried out to empower the caretaker government to make financial agreements hints toward a possible prolonged caretaker setup,” he said.