Options for Bangladesh in resolving Rohingya refugee repatriation fading in oblivion; needs more comprehensive contingency plan
by Kazi Emdadul Haq
Bangladesh has sent a powerful message of discontentment to the developed world leaders by abstaining from voting on the UN General assembly resolution on Myanmar, which was passed on 18 June 2021. The resolution mainly condemned the February 1 military putsch and called for restoring democracy, including the release of arrested political leaders. One hundred nineteen voted in favour while Belarus voted against, and 36 abstained, including China, Russia, India and Bangladesh. Surprisingly ASEAN countries got divided over the resolution – Brunei, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos also abstained from voting.
According to Bangladesh’s Permanent Representative to the UN in New York, Bangladesh tried to include the Rohingya issue in the resolution but was ignored. Along with Bangladesh, Egypt and Iran said that the resolution did not go into detail about the root cause of the Rohingya crisis and thus these countries abstained from voting. The resolution also did not mention the comprehensive arms embargo.
Any resolution that passes in the General assembly is nonbinding, but it conveys a strong message of global disapproval. Similarly, abstaining from voting is also a conveying message that a severe flaw is embedded within the resolution. Abstention of Bangladesh from voting does not necessarily convey the same understanding of other abstaining countries in this case. It could be considered a solid resentment for not resolving the return of Rohingya people, ousted by the Tatmadaw(Myanmar Armed Forces) under General Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing.
The UN Special Envoy to Myanmar expressed her concern by saying that the situation in Myanmar is “very worrisome” as the crisis has led to 6000 people arrested, 5000 detained, 175,000 uprooted, and around 10,000 sought refuge in India. Despite the efforts of Bangladesh, she did not feel enough concern to include the death of 6,700 Rohingyas and 7,50,000 Rohingyas who took shelter in 2017 in Bangladesh to avoid Tatmadaw’s grisly persecution. Human right violation and genocidal acts by Myanmar Military were known to the UN, as evident from the ‘Security Council Report‘; but the UN failed to take any decisive action against Myanmar other than mostly issuing letters, calling meetings and discussions among themselves, publish statements, etc.
Unfortunately, from the beginning of the Rohingya refugee crisis, Bangladesh did not get favourable support from both China and Russia; later, they justified the Myanmar junta’s putsch. Brazen dictator Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, who is a cohort of another authoritarian President Putin, will come forward in support of Myanmar’s dictator is palpable.
Why India, China and Russia are supporting Myanmar military putsch? The answer is simply strategic interest rather than humanitarian ground. Despite various targeted sanctions towards Myanmar by the US and EU countries, the military junta of Myanmar became more and more dependent on China for their survival since 1962 and, now, Myanmar has become a vassal state of China. For decades China had been the leading arms supplier to Myanmar, but for the past few years, Russia and India have found their economic interests through selling military hardware. At this juncture, how the US expects to win over China by placing fresh targeted sanctions over 22 Myanmar individuals on 02 July 2021 is not understood where China remains a time-tested friend to Myanmar.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Myanmar bought US$1.5 billion worth of military hardware from Russia between 1999 and 2018, which is about 40% of its total arms imports. Along with Chinese-made equipment, Myanmar has started using Russian-made military equipment – transport helicopters, Mi-35 helicopter gunships, MiG-29 fighter jets and aircraft, and many more. Alongside military training, Russia has started cultural and educational engagement with Myanmar.
Myanmar has become paramount to China for its Indian Ocean connectivity through China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). At any cost, China will maintain that status quo with Myanmar while wooing Bangladesh through economic projects under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). After four years of independence of Bangladesh, China’s recognition to Bangladesh is a glaring example of its geopolitical interest.
India sold a submarine, torpedoes and other military equipment, including military training to Myanmar. For the implementation of India’s ‘Act East policy, northeastern states economic and insurgent issues, Myanmar is considered as the lynchpin to India. Given the existing blood friendship between Bangladesh and India, India did not take the side of Bangladesh when it needed the most in resolving the Rohingya issue – a severe diplomatic disappointment on both sides. If Bangladesh does not get India by its side when the friendly relationship both countries are enjoying during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, it is most unlikely that Bangladesh would get India by its side in the foreseeable future with other leaders as head of Bangladesh.
In the present scenario of great power competition in the Indian Ocean and the US-China economic war, both Russia and China found each other as cohorts against united Western powers. In this anecdote, as expected, Russia will maintain support towards Myanmar even in the foreseeable future. Although a news magazine, The Irrawaddy, says, Moscow remains cautious in its official embrace of Myanmar Coup Leader Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing in his visit to attend the Moscow Conference on International Security in the last week of June 2021.
Bangladesh also buys military equipment from China and Russia, where China remains the highest arms supplier to Bangladesh. Despite this fact, both countries remained sympathetic to Myanmar military regime. Although Bangladesh maintains balanced relations with all these three countries, unfortunately, the strategic interests of these three countries in Myanmar outweigh their interests in Bangladesh. Although Chinese investment in India kept increasing despite BJP’s campaign to refrain from using Chinese goods, regrettably, India always remains suspicious of China’s economic investment in Bangladesh – an unfortunate prejudice against Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is not mandated to ensure democracy in the world, neither it has any obligation to free Aung San Suu Kyi, who never supported the cause of Rohingya people; rather, she went out at length at ICJ in support of the Tatmadaw’s brutal atrocities. Being a Nobel laureate and once Bangladeshi people and media lend their wholehearted support for the democratic idol, she never visited Bangladesh while she was in power. She would now brandish her own karma as evidently reflected her lack of farsightedness in the political theatre.
Bangladesh gave refuge to Rohingya people on the humanitarian ground and always showed a genuine attitude in resolving the Rohingya issue peacefully. Bangladesh, along with other eight countries – India, China, Russia, Pakistan, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand – participated in a military parade to mark Tatmadaw Day on March 27, 2021. Bangladesh showed this positive gesture by sending troops to Myanmar to uplift neighbourly relations without escalating the bilateral relationship further. Dhaka also showed restrained measures while Myanmar’s drones and choppers violated Bangladesh airspace several times in September 2017, which was opposed by diplomatic démarche. Peace-loving people of Bangladesh should now ask a question, how long Bangladesh would keep on displaying innocuous gestures in response to Myanmar Junta’s continued flustering actions towards Bangladesh.
Unquestionably, the international communities, especially great powers’ priorities are pursuing their strategic interests rather than resolving the Rohingya issue unless their interests are impaired. Despite the adoption of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in the UN unanimously, the great powers failed to protect the genocidal act, ethnic cleansing and crime against humanity (three out of four critical concerns of R2P) in Rakhine State in 2017. It would be a tough diplomatic challenge for Bangladesh to engage great powers in resolving the Rohingya problem. The IOC also did not show much interest to solve the issue other than providing some humanitarian aids. BIMSTEC/SAARC or other regional forums could be effective in taking the initiative to start a discussion but unfortunately proved weak. The 5 points consensus on Myanmar at ASEAN leaders’ meeting in April 2021 has now appeared to be nothing but mockery.
The Rohingya issue was started to create in 1982 when Myanmar amended the law to strip off the citizenship right to the Rohingya community living in Rakhine. Despite UN Resolution ( A/RES/69/248) calling Myanmar Government to grant full citizenship to Rohingya people and subsequently letter from Human Rights Watch, Myanmar did not comply with the request to grant citizenship to Rohingya people. Furthermore, all the indicators in their favour indicate that they will not do it in the near future. Bangladesh failed to visualize the dire consequences of the decision taken in Myanmar, yet, it provided shelter to the fleeing Rohingya people on humanitarian grounds. Unfortunately, the UN disappointed to ensure R2P of destitute Rohingyas.
It is a solemn and stark reminder that after the independence war of Bangladesh in 1971, more than 200,000 Biharis were stranded in Bangladesh. They could not go to either Pakistan due to the disinterest showed by Pakistan to repatriate them or India which they left as home in the 1947 partition. Bangladesh had to endure the burden of those people on her land.
Although a remote possibility, even if Myanmar’s State Administrative Council (SAC) agreed to return to democracy, Rohingya repatriation still hangs on uncertainty. Only if the newly formed National Unity Government (NUG) wins, Bangladesh may dream of serendipity for Rohingya repatriation. The priority need of Bangladesh is to return over 1.1 million Rohingya people to Myanmar, rather than returning democracy. To maintain regional harmony and not to escalate present parlance, Bangladesh never responded to Myanmar Junta’s provocations shown at different times and always sought UN support in peaceful solution of Rohingya crisis. However, Bangladesh might have to show more restraint or careful act if Myanmar turns to a failed state or heads to civil war, as speculated by many analysts. Meanwhile, the present situation indicates that Bangladesh should take appropriate action in maintaining the security that may emanate from this vast number of Rohingya refugees confined in different camps. Urgency is now to restrain them in a disciplined and planned way without being interfered from vested groups. This would be an ensuing challenge for Bangladesh in the coming years.