ALI MAHAQI
Since taking over Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban regime has faced escalating tensions with neighbouring countries, particularly over water issues and regional security. The regime’s deadly clashes with Iran over water rights and its strikes on Pakistan underscore the challenges Afghanistan presents to regional stability. Tajikistan has bolstered its military presence along its Afghan border and conducted joint drills with Russia.
China, which shares a small border with Afghanistan, has taken several military measures since 2021. These include joint drills with Tajikistan and the establishment of a military base near the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, like other neighbours, have increased their military presence along their Afghan borders. Uzbekistan has engaged in joint counter-terrorism exercises with Russia, reflecting growing anxiety over Afghanistan’s instability.
These actions reflect concerns in the Central Asian states about the risks of instability spilling over into their territories. In an already tense region, any further escalation could ignite a broader conflict. The unpredictable nature of the Taliban regime, coupled with Afghanistan’s internal crises, exacerbates the region’s fragility.
Water scarcity has the potential to become such a flashpoint for conflict in the region, as Afghanistan and its neighbours vie for access to limited resources.
The Taliban is not a typical regime that adheres to international law, and regional leaders must adopt a pragmatic approach.
Droughts, floods and extreme temperature fluctuations have plagued Afghanistan for years. Such disasters are worsened by climate change. In an effort to mitigate the damage, the Taliban has resumed several key infrastructure projects, including the Qosh Tepa canal in northern Afghanistan, aimed at addressing the country’s water crisis.
Water security is also a critical issue for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan is grappling with severe water shortages due to climate change, with diminishing river levels and reduced precipitation. Water usage per capita has halved between 2008 and 2022. Turkmenistan, classified as an “extremely high” water-stressed country, relies heavily on water from transboundary rivers.
The Amu Darya River is a vital source of water for Afghanistan and its northern neighbours. Before the Taliban’s rise, countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan were less concerned about projects like the Qosh Tepa canal, which had been delayed due to attacks by Taliban insurgents. The situation has now changed dramatically. Afghanistan’s northern neighbours are increasingly worried about water security, particularly the flow of the Amu Darya into their territories.
The Taliban’s leadership, unlike conventional political regimes, is driven by religious ideology. Many of its members are religious clerics (mullahs) who believe that Sharia law provides the solution to all issues. This mindset, combined with a disregard for international norms, complicates efforts to resolve water disputes diplomatically. Abdul Latif Mansour, a former jihadi commander currently under UN sanctions, now heads Afghanistan’s Ministry of Energy and Water, reflecting the regime’s non-traditional approach to governance.
Afghanistan is among the countries ranked most vulnerable to climate change – 6th in terms of crisis risk and 12th for countries most at risk from climate change. Between 2012 and 2023, the country experienced a 12% reduction in precipitation, and snowfall decreased by 19% between 2014 and 2020, with the northern region hardest hit by these changes.
The Taliban is determined to secure Afghanistan’s water rights, particularly from the Amu Darya. Afghanistan contributes 30% of the river’s flow, while Uzbekistan contributes 6%, and Turkmenistan contributes 1%. However, Afghanistan only uses 2% of the river’s total discharge, compared to Uzbekistan’s 48.2% and Turkmenistan’s 35.8%. The Qosh Tepa canal is expected to reduce the downstream flow by 15%, raising concerns in downstream countries about future water supplies.
In response to these concerns, Uzbekistan has taken a diplomatic approach, sending officials to Kabul and offering assistance with the canal’s construction. This suggests that Uzbekistan recognises the potential to resolve the issue peacefully through negotiation. Turkmenistan, however, has yet to take significant action, despite its heavy reliance on the Amu Darya, which provides water for 80% of its population via the Karakum Canal.
One potential solution to this crisis is to leverage Afghanistan’s energy dependence on its neighbours. Afghanistan relies on Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for 73% of its energy supply, with Uzbekistan providing 57% and Turkmenistan 17%. These countries could use their energy resources as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Taliban, encouraging the regime to engage in diplomatic talks over water rights.
Ultimately, regional cooperation is essential to prevent the water crisis from escalating into conflict. The international community cannot ignore Afghanistan’s right to water, but it is crucial to minimise the environmental impact of projects such as the Qosh Tepa canal. Central Asia is already under pressure from climate change, and water-related tensions have the potential to trigger unrest and conflict.
The Taliban is not a typical regime that adheres to international law, and regional leaders must adopt a pragmatic approach. The deadly clash between Iran and Afghanistan over water in May 2023 serves as a warning that the situation is volatile. Negotiation is the only viable path to avoiding further escalation and ensuring regional stability.
source : lowyinstitute