by James M Dorsey
Israel ignores at its peril the increasingly bold writing on the wall.
The writing suggests Israel’s US and European diplomatic and military defense shield, a fixture of Israeli defense and foreign policy, and the Jewish state’s existing and potential regional partnerships are fracturing and, in some cases, possibly crumbling.
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Driving the rupture is Israel’s war conduct, including its disproportionate bombings of Gaza and Lebanon; its weaponisation of food, medicine, and other humanitarian aid; its refusal to agree to a Gaza ceasefire, and its inability to achieve declared war goals, including the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite militia.
“As the war drags on, the question ,…Is Israel still a vital US interest? becomes increasingly relevant. The failure to decisively defeat Hamas and the growing risks of a regional war involving Iran may force US and European policymakers to reconsider the costs associated with unwavering support for Israel,” said Ali Shehab, a Saudi analyst who is believed to be close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
In the latest posting on the wall, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken gave Israel 30 days to boost humanitarian aid access in Gaza or risk having some US military assistance cut off.
Messrs. Austin and Blinken’s ultimatum constituted the first time since the Gaza war erupted a year ago that the United States publicly threatened to sanction Israel if it failed to live up to its international obligations and comply with US law.
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The Biden administration has long criticised Israeli restrictions on the flow of aid but stopped until now short of putting a price tag on Israel’s refusal to heed US advice.
The 30-day deadline falls after the November 5 US presidential election, when electoral politics no longer inhibit the Biden administration, and it has a relatively free hand until the next president takes office on January 20 of next year.
Messrs. Austin and Blinken detailed actions Israel needed to take, including allowing at least 350 aid trucks to enter Gaza daily through five major crossings, implementing humanitarian pauses in the fighting to enable the distribution of aid and vaccinations, ensuring Palestinians can move inland from the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone where they are at “high risk of lethal contagion,” , and providing better security for humanitarian convoys.
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Credit: Morocco World News
The US ultimatum followed calls by various European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Belgian development minister Caroline Gennez, for an arms embargo while Spain and Italy have suspended new post-October 7 arms sales to Israel.
Germany, Israel’s strongest European ally, has significantly decreased its exports of defensive arms to Israel since the beginning of the year. German exports dropped from 20 million euros last year to 32,000 this year.
Israel launched its war on Gaza on October 7 of last year, the day Hamas attacked Israel, killing some 1,200 people, primarily innocent civilians, and kidnapped 250 others.
Last month, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that Britian had suspended 30 of 350 arms export licenses to Israel after it found a “clear risk certain military exports to Israel might be used in violations of International Humanitarian Law”.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s close ties to the far right, which he cultivated through his diaspora affairs minister Amichai Chikli and Likud Party lawmakers, didn’t stop Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from announcing this week Italy’s suspension of arms sales to Israel.
“We have blocked everything.” Italy’s arms export policies were “much more restrictive than that applied by our partners—France, Germany and the United Kingdom,” Ms. Meloni told the Italian Senate.
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Credit: Frontier Post
For its part, Britain this week sanctioned seven Israeli groups it says are connected to illegal settlement construction in the West Bank.
Earlier this year, Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia recognised Palestine as a state, bringing the number of European Union members who have accepted Palestinian statehood to 11. They were joined by Norway, one of five non-EU European states that have recognised Palestine.
Adding to Israel’s woes, Mr. Shehab, the Saudi analyst, suggested that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, like the United States and Europe, could potentially reconsider Israel’s geopolitical utility.
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In a Substack column, Mr. Shehab recited Hezbollah’s resilience in the face of serious body blows Israel inflicted on the group and Hezbollah’s successful exploitation of “gaps in Israeli intelligence and defenses,” as well as an apparent cyberattack that degraded Israel’s anti-missile defence system in advance of Iran’s October 1 missile barrage that targeted Tel Aviv.
Mr. Shehab suggested extensive coverage of Hezbollah’s military abilities on Qatari and Saudi television channels “reflects a sentiment within the Arab world that, despite diplomatic normalisation, there remains a deep-rooted reluctance to see Israel exert unchecked regional dominance.”
Mr.Shehab warned, “Should the conflict escalate into a broader regional war, (Gulf) countries could be pressured to distance themselves from Israel to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of their populations.”
Mr. Shehab’s warning echoed earlier remarks by Mr. Bin Salman, the 38-year-old Saudi crown prince.
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Credit: Quds News Network
“Seventy per cent of my population is younger than me. For most of them, they never really knew much about the Palestinian issue. And so they’re being introduced to it for the first time through this conflict. It’s a huge problem. . Do I care personally about the Palestinian issue? I don’t, but my people do,” Mr. Bin Salman reportedly told Mr. Blinken, the US Secretary of State, according to The Atlantic.
Saudi officials said The Atlantic had quoted the crown prince inaccurately.
The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020. Mr. Bin Salman has said the kingdom would only follow suit if Israel agreed to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
“The kingdom will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that,” the crown prince said.
Mr. Bin Salman was not just responding to public opinion in the kingdom and the broader Muslim world but was also signalling that Israel may have lost some of the military and technological shine that long attracted Arab autocrats.
“Recent media portrayals of Israeli military setbacks at the hands of Hezbollah hint at the reality that public opinion in the Gulf remains opposed to unconditional support for Israel. This…becomes even more pronounced when Israel engages in aggressive military actions that provoke backlash across the Arab world,” Mr. Shehab noted.
“Gulf states may find themselves having to reassess their diplomatic positioning,” he added.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
Some related media appearance links:
US gives Israel 30 days to boost Gaza Aid. BBC Newsday. 16 October 2024
