U.S. sanctions on Pakistan could tilt region’s power balance toward India

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20250110 Pakistan Shaheen

Pakistani-made Shaheen-3 and Ghauri missiles are displayed during a military parade to mark Pakistan National Day in Islamabad in March 2022.  © AP

ADNAN AAMIR, Contributing writer

ISLAMABAD — The recent U.S. sanctions on Pakistani entities contributing to long-range missile programs are motivated by Washington’s Indo-Pacific security strategy, analysts say, but could result in tilting the power balance in South Asia in favor of India.

In mid-December, the U.S. State Department sanctioned one government agency and three private companies involved in Pakistan’s long-range missile development program.

Washington said the National Development Complex (NDC) in Islamabad has worked to acquire items such as special vehicle chassis to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles and missile testing equipment. The three private companies have all supplied the NDC with a range of such equipment at various times.

Those under sanctions cannot work with companies linked to the U.S., and their assets in the U.S. are frozen. They would basically be blocked from the global financial system as well.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at Wilson Center in Washington, told Nikkei Asia, “The U.S. is likely trying to convey to Pakistan that it feels its questions and concerns about its ballistic missile program haven’t been properly acknowledged and addressed.”

Earlier in September, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry, as well as three Chinese and one Pakistani companies for procuring equipment for testing Pakistani rocket motors used in ballistic missiles. Despite these moves, Kugelman explained that Washington is not satisfied with the current situation.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement after the U.S. announced the sanctions calling the decision “unfortunate and biased.” It said, “Such policies have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond.” The statement continued, “We also regret the imposition of sanctions on private commercial entities. Similar listings of commercial entities in the past were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever.”

Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow with the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, said that in theory, these sanctions will benefit India, the arch-rival of Pakistan. “Given its current economic condition, Pakistan is not in a position to compete with India on the strategic front amid these sanctions,” she told Nikkei.

The two countries have fought four wars since 1948, and Pakistan’s ballistic missile program is driven by its strategic compulsion to maintain a credible minimum deterrence against India.

Qamar Cheema, executive director of Sanober Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank, said that U.S. sanctions are part of preferential treatment given to New Delhi. “Recent developments, such as U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s statement about missile cooperation with India, have further highlighted the imbalance, which Pakistan has long highlighted,” he told Nikkei.

For example, the U.S. did not openly criticize India’s successful hypersonic missile test in November.

“The sanctions on Pakistan’s government entity, NDC, are most critical as no company around the world, which is connected with the global financial system, can do business with it anymore,” said Siddiq, who was previously director of naval research for the Pakistan Navy.

altPakistani Army soldier salutes while standing on an air defense missile system during a Pakistan Day military parade in 2022.   © Reuters

Muhammad Shoaib, an assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, said, “Even minor acquisitions by Pakistan [for missile development] will be highlighted and tightly monitored. These sanctions will also discourage the sellers of spare parts from doing business with Pakistan as they will face the wrath of the U.S. if they do.”

Pakistan is expected to focus more on improving its indigenous capabilities to ensure self-reliance in defense and missile programs to deal with the fallout of the sanctions, according to experts.

“These sanctions are likely to persist, with little chance of removal under [Donald] Trump’s administration, leaving little room for policy relaxation toward Pakistan,” Siddiqa said.

Experts see these sanctions as being driven by the U.S. Indo-Pacific security strategy, which focuses on strengthening alliances and partnerships to promote a free and secure region in order to counter China.

“Pakistan’s Shaheen-3 missile with a range of 2,750 kilometers targets areas such as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, key locations for Indo-Pacific and U.S. strategic interests. This capability threatens U.S. interests in the region,” Siddiqa told Nikkei.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are located 1,200 kilometers away from mainland India, at the southeastern edge of the Bay of Bengal. They can be used for a retaliatory strike against Pakistan by India in case of war.

Cheema of the Sanober Institute agrees with Siddiqa. “The motivations behind the U.S. concerns over Pakistan’s missile program seem to stem from its broader regional interests rather than any direct threat to the United States itself,” he said.

U.S. deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missiles are capable of reaching targets far beyond South Asia, potentially even the U.S.

Finer’s statement was surprising for many analysts as Islamabad has never envisaged attacking U.S. interests though its missiles.

Shoaib of Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad said that the statement from Finer does not fit well with ground realities and ignores the stated policy objectives of Pakistan. “Pakistan does not seek missile systems that can target the U.S.,” he told Nikkei.

source : asia.nikkei

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