by Rania Yaqub 20 February 2023
On February 17, 2023, the Karachi police headquarters were under attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist group with close affiliations to the Afghan Taliban, responsible for killing thousands in Pakistan. The attack, which took the lives of at least four people, was claimed by the TTP and follows a pattern of escalating violence that the group has been engaged in since the collapse of a cease-fire with the Pakistani state in late 2021.
The resurgence of the TTP comes at a time when Pakistan is grappling with a harsh economic crisis and the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 has created an environment in which extremist groups are becoming increasingly emboldened.
The TTP’s attack in Peshawar in late January, 2023, which claimed more than 100 lives, was the deadliest attack by the group since its reemergence after the Afghan Taliban gained power in Afghanistan. Among the key factors steering the TTP’s growing campaign of violence is its political strength. Much of the TTP’s political leadership and capability is rooted in Afghanistan, where the group has been provided a permissive safe haven by the Afghan Taliban.
The TTP has had extremely close ties to the Afghan Taliban, which is reflected in their pledge of allegiance to the latter, as their own supreme leader. It has been a mutually beneficial relationship with the Afghan Taliban providing logistical aid to TTP, and the TTP benefiting them with foot soldiers. Both organizations have trained together and share the same ideology, with the Afghan Taliban releasing hundreds of TTP soldiers when they took over Kabul in 2021.
Their resurgence is also due in part to the group’s popularity among both Taliban and non-Taliban constituencies in Afghanistan, who share a mutual deep-seated dislike for Pakistan. The TTP has also reclaimed some territorial influence in southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, such as South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Tank, Bannu, and Lakki Marwat. The balance of opinion amongst the Taliban lies heavily in favor of TTP due to their ideologies. This was reflected in Taliban Amir Hibatullah Akhundzada’s opinion of the Pakistani system being “un-Islamic”, in agreement with the TTP.
While the TTP’s recent attacks can be seen to have largely focused on attacking security personnel in Pakistan’s western border regions, the group has also targeted civilians in the past. They changed their manifesto in 2018 to shift focus from attacking civilians to instead targeting the Pakistani military and intelligence. Yet the group continues to pose a crucial threat to the safety and security of Pakistani citizens.
The surge in TTP violence can be seen in the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2021. A report by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) shows a 42% increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2021, in comparison to the previous year, with the TTP behind 87 of those attacks. The group claimed responsibility for a total of 282 attacks in 2021, resulting in over 500 law enforcement personnel casualties.
The TTP demands for the practice of sharia in Pakistan and the release of its prisoners. For the Pakistani state, the former demand is non-negotiable. It is quite clear that the TTP is uninterested in a peaceful solution to their created conflict, as these rigid conditions have so far failed talks between the two sides.
As a consequence of the TTP’s terrorist attacks, the Afghan Taliban has been called to take action to curb the group’s violent activities. It seems highly unlikely though for the Afghan Taliban to take any such steps. The group’s key priority has been protecting its internal unity, and any act against the TTP could possibly lead to defections within its own ranks. The Taliban’s long-established relationship with the TTP would make it further unlikely for the group to want to take any action that would harm the group.
The international community, and more so the United States who devised the peace deal with the Taliban in 2021, must not forget that the resurgence of TTP in Pakistan, and its alliances with terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, clearly pose an incremental threat to global peace and security.
The TTP’s resurgence in Pakistan is a significant threat that demands urgent attention from the Pakistani government and the international community. While the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has undoubtedly emboldened the TTP, it is imperative that the Afghan Taliban curb TTP’s terrorist activities. The Pakistani government needs an inclusive approach to the issue that combines security measures with political and socio-economic strategies. Failure to do so could have serious consequences for the stability and security of Pakistan and the wider region.
The author is a Karachi-based researcher and policy analyst. She frequently writes on issues related to regional security and development with particular focus on contemporary South Asia.