Since Donald Trump assumed the presidency, the fate of Ukraine has been sealed. Within one month of taking office, he laid out a roadmap for ending the Ukraine war and rapprochement with Russia; however, many experts view that Trump is giving extravagant favors to President Putin, which could shake not only Ukrainian sovereignty but also the future security of the entire Europe.
Many reports confirm that Trump’s plan for the Ukraine peace deal will not provide NATO membership which Ukraine has been asking for years, which means that Ukraine’s security will be at stake. Russia has long been opposing the eastward expansion of NATO, especially at Russian borders and the notion of Ukraine in NATO; so, Trump’s peace plan will satisfy the very first demand of President Putin. Second, currently around 20pc of Ukrainian territory has been occupied by Russia, and Ukraine can’t able to take back significant territory from the Russian hand despite American and European support. And in Trump’s plan, there is no provision for returning these occupied territories to Ukraine, including Crimea; Russia will effectively control 20pc of Ukrainian territory. Therefore, Russian demands for neutral Ukraine, without NATO or any other comprehensive security guaranteed, have been conceded by President Trump, a clear sign of victory for Moscow and President Putin.
Moreover, America and Russia are solely in discussion for peace talks for ending the Ukraine war, without inviting Ukrainian and European delegations. Both Ukrainian and European leadership have objected to such unilateral peace talks; however, the American President and his team have remained stubborn in their approach.
This reflects that the net loser of the peace deal will be Ukraine, which was heavily dependent on American military hardware and economic aid, and without it, Ukraine has no chance to solely fight against mighty Russia. Furthermore, the distrust level between Ukraine and the USA further deteriorated when President Trump called President Zelenskyy a dictator and very low popularity among the Ukrainian people; meanwhile, President Zelenskyy kept reminding European leadership to build a European Army, and not to rely on American defense for their security.
On the other hand, the unpredictable and impulsive nature of President Trump in conducting foreign affairs raises alarm bell in Europe. As things unfold in Ukraine, European leadership, especially Germany and France, are feeling betrayed by American hands. They are even unaware of upholding Article 5 of NATO by the USA in the case of a Russian attack on any NATO country as President Trump has criticized both NATO enlargement policy and low defense spending of NATO members. This indicates that powerful European countries such as Germany and France will have to provide a clear leadership of European security and economic affairs, and even floating the idea of a European army instead of remaining over-dependent on NATO, which is dominated by the USA, for defense and security of Europe.
This indicates that Trump’s actions towards Ukraine, Russia and Europe have shaken the foundation of the Transatlantic Alliance. For the very first time since the end of World War 2, the USA and Europe are at odds for security and economic cooperation, mainly because of President Trump.
However, some American experts view that the real issue of President Trump is reducing the defence budget and unwanted wars abroad because he wants to save American taxpayer money. The signature program of President Trump “Make America Great Again” only implemented truly when he reduced taxes, raised tariffs and slashed the defense budget for creating more jobs in America. So, the domestic affairs of USA under the President Trump are guiding his foreign policy. Therefore, a hasty peace deal for Ukraine under the leadership of President Trump can be seen through the above prim.
The lightning rapprochement of the USA and Russia is above the personality’s likeness of Trump and Putin. By giving a very favorable deal, the USA tried to win Russia so it could dissuade Moscow from Chinese orbit. Very policy documents of the USA indicate that the primary adversary of the USA is China, not Russia; therefore, the strategic goal of the USA is to break breaking Beijing-Moscow alliance at any cost. And President Trump has wanted to improve the relationship with Russia so that the USA can solely focus on the containment of China. One can see that pattern in history when President Nixon started rapprochement with China to isolate Moscow in the 1970s. Likewise, President Trump, in his mind, wanted to make Russia a member of the anti-China alliance which is meant for economic, technological and military containment of Beijing, by accepting every demand of President Putin in Ukraine. However, given the strategic, political, economic, technological and military closeness of Moscow and Beijing, it is highly unlikely that Moscow will join any anti-China alliance at the moment. Nevertheless, the rapprochement between Russia and the USA will soften anti-USA rhetoric and the position of Moscow on international platforms and Organizations, especially BRICS and SCO.
The total surrender and abandonment of Ukraine by USA would not serve the primary interest of Washington and help out in focusing the containment of China. Instead, it will create Russian influence and hegemony in Eastern Europe and shake the European trust in American leadership, which means that the American position will be at a loss in European affairs. Furthermore, hastily peace deal often results in instability and chaos, for instance, during the first administration of President Trump, he made a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban without involving the Afghan government whose net outcome was the total victory of the Afghan Taliban on Afghanistan for which the USA had been fighting for twenty years; President Trump is repeating the same mistake in Ukraine by giving too much favor to Moscow.
For instance, even without giving formal membership of NATO to Ukraine, the USA can its European allies could make a security arrangement for Ukraine’s defense. In that way, Ukraine will be neutral and security guarantee. On the other hand, the USA must not recognize the occupied territory of Ukraine to the Russian hand in the exchange of Peace negotiation. Ukrainian territory must be restored and respected by Russia in any peace negotiation. Additionally, the USA and Europe must provide economic assistance and aid for the rehabilitation of the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure. These are some baby steps for Ukrainian security and economic prosperity which not only serve Ukraine’s interest but also European and American security and economic relations. Meanwhile, genuine demands of Russia must be respected, but a violation of territorial sovereignty and occupation of foreign land by usage of force can’t be justified by the UNO charter or any other international law. Therefore, any peace deal must ensure lasting peace in sovereign and unified Ukraine, while addressing the genuine concerns of Russia.