by James M Dorsey
Donald J. Trump’s electoral victory promises to give Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a free hand, at least temporarily, to deal with Iran and its non-state allies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
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For Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Trump’s success is a welcome reprieve at a moment when the prime minister fears his alignment with the global far-right potentially may be fraying at the edges with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announcing a suspension of arms sales to Israel.
To cement his relationship with Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyhau quickly congratulated the president-elect on what the prime minister called “history’s greatest comeback.”
Mr. Netanyhau added that Mr. Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”
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In a phone call last month, Mr. Trump told Mr. Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in Gaza and Lebanon but to get it done before he takes office on January 20 next year.
In that vein, Mr. Netanyahu may see the Biden administration’s waning lame-duck days as an opportunity to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly if Iran escalates an evolving tit-for-tat by responding harshly to last month’s Israeli targeting of Iranian military facilities that killed four soldiers and a civilian.
“There are roughly two months left before Trump comes into office, and it is in Netanyahu’s interest to create a situation where Trump’s options are very limited, and all of them, to varying degrees, are in support of Netanyahu,” said Trita Parsi, a keen Iran observer and executive vice president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
“The Iranians themselves also might decide that they need to hit back now against Israel because the neoconservatives, after the last Israeli attack, are arguing that it is pretty easy to strike Iran, and so Trump should let Israel finish the job,” Mr. Parsi added.
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Even so, which way Mr. Trump will jump when it comes to Iran or, for that matter, Israel and the Palestinians may not be a foregone conclusion despite the inclinations of Mr. Netanyahu and the president-elect’s trigger-happy associates and his Middle East policies during his first term.
In office, Mr. Trump gave Mr. Netanyahu much of what he wanted.
Mr. Trump closed the Palestine Authority office in Washington, defunded the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which the Israeli parliament last month designated as a terrorist organisation, recognised Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights occupied by Israel since 1967 and withdrew from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear programme.
Based on Mr. Trump’s record, Middle East scholar Marc Lynch argued that Palestine would likely feel the brunt of the president-elect’s second term.
“The single biggest difference is likely to be on the West Bank, which is as good as annexed. It’s been widely reported that Miriam Adelson’s price for her campaign contributions was Trump’s support for West Bank annexation, but he probably would have done it for free. His key Middle East advisers have openly advocated for it…they won’t stand in Netanyahu’s way when he goes for it,” Mr. Lynch predicted.
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The widow of far-right casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, Ms. Adelson is Mr. Trump’s foremost financial backer, having donated US$100 million to his campaign.
That didn’t stop Mr. Trump from promising Arab American voters who favour the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, “You’re going to have peace in the Middle East, but not with these clowns that you have running the US right now.”
In reality, Mr. Trump has little incentive to pressure Israel on the Palestine issue. He could opt to do so given Saudi Arabia’s insistence that t it will only establish diplomatic relations with Israel once Israel irreversibly commits to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
Whie Mr. Trump would put a premium on adding Saudi Arabia to the list of countries he shepherded in recognising Israel, he is unlikely accept the kingdom’s second condition: a legally binding US defense agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco established diplomatic relations in 2020 in a deal negotiated by Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law.
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Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has made clear he does not want a Middle East war on his watch, certainly not one that could force the United States to intervene militarily. As a result, Mr. Trump could have some surprises in store for Mr. Netanyahu.
Touting his allegedly miraculous ability to negotiate deals, Mr. Trump, rather than supporting Mr. Netanyhau’s inclination to seriously damage, if not destroy, Iranian nuclear capabilities, could see an opportunity to achieve the kind of deal he failed to secure with North Korea.
The election in July of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian could encourage Mr. Trump to give it a shot. Mr. Pezeshkian was elected on a promise to rebuild relations with the West and negotiate a nuclear deal that would grant Iran relief from crippling economic sanctions imposed by Mr. Trump during his first presidency.
“The situation in the region is completely unsustainable, and without someone ‘breaking heads’ it is on a path to regional war and unimaginable death and devastation. Trump’s aggressive, zero-sum approach to foreign policy, particularly toward Iran, might be precisely what is needed to confront and contain actors in the region… The outrageous situation in the Middle East calls not for intellectualism but for a strong hand.,” said pundit Dan Perry, a proponent of hardline Israeli policies yet a critic of Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu.
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Media reports suggested that Mr. Trump kept his options open by asking Iran hawk Brian Hook to assemble the president’s foreign policy team. Mr. Hook was a key player in Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran.
Iran is likely to look for tell-tale signs of what Mr. Trump’s personnel choices mean.
“The Iranian view is that Trump himself wants to make a deal, but it depends on whether he appoints the same neoconservatives as last time to his administration,” said Mr. Parsi, the Iran observer.
The problem with the analysis of Mr. Perry and the Trump supporters is that it buys into an arguably false Israeli narrative that Israel’s detractors only understand the language of strength and force.
“When U.S. allies see renewed American determination to contain the Islamist regime in Tehran, they will join with Washington and help bring peace … Restoring the Trump crackdown will curtail Iran’s ability to fund terrorist proxy forces in the Middle East and beyond… A stronger policy to counter Iran would also lead to a more productive approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” said Robert C. O’Brien, one of Mr. Trump’s first presidency national security advisors.
Echoing Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. O’Brien, who is being touted as a candidate for Mr. Trump’s Secretary of State, advocates doubling down on policies that have pushed the Middle East to the edge of a cliff rather than pulled it back from the brink.
As a result, Mr. Trump’s unpredictability and inflated assessment of his negotiating skills could prove to be an asset in the Middle East. Having said that, it may be too early to place a bet on whether he might break the region’s log jam.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.