by Fateh Najeeb Bhatti 21 July 2021
Recent situation in Afghanistan holds many repercussions for Afghans as well as for the neighboring countries. According to the experts, “to a larger scale the peace and security in South and Central Asia along with Middle East is directly proportional to the peace in Afghanistan.” War ridden Afghan soil has been under crisis since more than forty years but the differences based on identity and ideology are further worsening with every passing day. Presently, following three major kinds of leaderships are apparent with their motives and objectives:
- Pro Indian Ashraf Ghani and his govt. officials falsifying and dramatizing every fact in frustration to demoralize Pakistan on their master i.e., India’s wishes whether its Afghan forces cowardice or its poorly plotted abduction drama of Ambassador’s daughter in Islamabad or even Biden’s indifference to support Ghani administration any further.
- Abdullah Abdullah, Gulbadin Hikmat Yar, leaders from Northern Alliance and others out of power trying to develop a sort of understanding with Taliban in Doha and willing to attend upcoming peace conference in Islamabad in search of any sort of involvement in power corridors after Ghani’s expected departure.
iii. Taliban the ultra conservative Islamists regaining their rule over major part of Afghanistan after decades of resistance against foreign powers though the fate of major cities is yet to be decided but hasty withdrawal of the US with suspicious retreat of Afghan forces is boosting their morale more than expected. Statistics show that the number of armed Taliban’s is around 600,00 approximately while there are almost 150,000 armed person ells of Afghan forces with significant air force and latest weaponry. It is also worth noting that this very Afghan Army resisted successfully for two consecutive years and didn’t allow Taliban’s to move ahead even an inch before 15 May 2021.
Like a regular practice a major chunk of Afghan soldiers is fleeing every now and then towards Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with few towards Pakistan who are being handed back to competent authorities of Afghan forces. Here, it is important to note that If Ashraf Ghani’s statement blaming Pakistan for assisting Taliban in Tashkent conference is having any credibility then who supported Taliban in bordering areas of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan where even Pakistan can never ever take any step. Secondly, after disappointing visit of Ghani to the US why he canceled Islamabad conference though earlier it was called on his sole discretion. This is not coincident that Indian media along with Afghan parliamentarians and vice president is one voice against Pakistan denying the facts and fearing their dismal and anticipated humiliated departure from the scene. Recent drama of Abduction of Afghan ambassador’s daughter in Islamabad is an eye opener that how Afghan government is bandwagoning and sided with RAW and Indian malign agenda to discredit Pakistan. In fact, ever since the incident of 9/11 every effort to establish democracy in Afghanistan has been very weak in legitimacy and without mass participation and popular consent. Cherry picked so called leaders from Karzai to Ghani have proven worst in restoring peace and harmony in Afghanistan.
Outsiders powers, firstly American’s leaving valuable weaponry on certain bases for Taliban as alleged goodwill gift under plotted surrender and escape of American trained Afghan forces seems as an act of tacit diplomacy. Leaving Afghanistan without solution focusing more on countering China in broader Asia–Pacific seems viable option for American policy makers. Some analysts argue that rather than keep on engaging in endless war here in Afghanistan it appears more convincing to Americans to have friendly opposition in Afghanistan behind in shape of Taliban’s in place of failed unity government. Secondly, India is withdrawing its massive figured secret agents who were appointed in disguise of engineers, political representatives and consulates general staff. Interestingly, panicked with the fear of upcoming Taliban regime it is developing ties with Taliban through Iran’s assistance. The plight of Afghan government is so miserable that it is still living in false hopes of Indian assistance in restoring Ghani government’s writ.
Afghan dysfunctional imported democracy is very close to its demise after clear signs of no support from America but still shouting out over Pakistan in frustration gives clear hints of their mind set which they had since decades. One might not forget sincere efforts of Pakistan bearing losses of casualties and economy just to support Afghan cause having rehabilitated millions of Afghan refugees. Going back to history, Afghanistan had been the gateway and transit route for many invaders from central Asia towards Sub-continent. Consequently it had never been under any peaceful regime for longer period of time.
Ever since the British rule here in subcontinent, Afghan leadership has never been sincere with their people; not to mention the anti-Pakistan agenda which they had and fanatically been trying to inject hate through sub–nationalist movements here in Pakistan. Traditional Afghans didn’t show resistance to Soviet expansion hence a smaller faction of them fell pray to declining communism in 1960s, 70s till 80s likewise. Latter on, another twist aligned major portion of them with the US funded and led Jihad against Soviets correlating it to Cold War tactics. Pakistan under Zia’s military rule couldn’t resist American pressure fearing Soviet approach to warm waters provided every kind of support to Jihadis on American consent and assistance. Surprisingly, the reversal of American policies after 9/11 aligned Pakistan against those formerly cherished Jihadis as part of track two diplomacy. One might question Pakistan’s position here in these two above mentioned situations but this should also be kept in mind that with what other options Pakistan was left especially when few other states in neighborhood e.g., India were willing to provide alternate support to the US. These are undeniable facts along with war lord culture of Afghanistan making it forever conflict under geostrategic buffer zone reality with immeasurable societal divides within.
Whatever turn the history might proceed within Afghanistan; whether it repeats itself or new outcomes with unprecedented dimensions take place, identity based clash of ideologies would be quite evident in future. More alarming is the extremity of rival ideologies with one being in extreme liberal form while other in the shape of rigid and ultra conservative Taliban. In-between the clash of these two belligerents the ultimate sufferer would be common poor masses while opportunist anarchist factions both internally and externally would try to sabotage any peaceful settlement. This fact should not be forgotten that whenever In history Afghanistan had gained a little bit power they had always blamed and targeted their much sincere neighbor Pakistan whether in shape of making pashtunistan or scapegoating Pakistan of their current failures, perhaps taking it as soft target or out of habit of biting the benevolent as their previous rulers had done in the past.
At this critical junction of crucial events Pakistan should worry about the spill over effect of rapid disorder giving hint of another long civil war in Afghanistan. Prior experiences have proven that cultural, religious resemblance along with geographical proximity can play a role in stimulating violence and immigrants influx if the situation aggravates. Rationality demands neutrality in dealing with war torn Afghanistan with much to praise about recent peace related efforts among different political factions of Afghan society. While America, UK even Russia like many major stake holders of international system have shown leniency towards acceptance of Taliban rule, Pakistan should act according to its vital national interest that is peace in Afghanistan as it is essential for peace in Pakistan. Still hopes are high that there might not be another influx of Afghan refugees again along with militant Talibanization inside Pakistan.