by James M Dorsey
United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed is manoeuvring to replace Qatar as the main Gulf player in post-war Gaza with the backing of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Messrs. Bin Zayed and Netanyahu see humanitarian aid provided by the Emirates and the prospect of UAE-funded post-war reconstruction as a way to marginalise Hamas and drive a wedge between the group’s leadership and Hamas-appointed civil administrators.
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Sultan Mohammed Al Shamsi, the UAE assistant foreign affairs minister for development and international organizations, estimated in July that the Gulf state had spent US$700 million on Gaza in the past year.
The UAE’s enhanced role would help sideline President Mahmoud Abbas’ internationally recognised Palestine Authority.
Mr. Netanyahu has rejected the Authority playing a prominent part in post-war Gaza, while the UAE and the United States have called for reform of the dysfunctional body that is widely seen as corrupt and ineffective.
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In his just-published book, War, journalist Bob Woodward suggested that US President Joe Biden shared Messrs. Bin Zayed and Netanyahu’s disdain for Mr. Abbas.
At the same time, Messrs. Bin Zayed and Netanyahu hope to dash Qatari hopes of playing an influential post-war role in Gaza much like it did with Mr. Netanyahu’s encouragement before last year’s October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.
Mr. Netanyahu has repeatedly accused Qatar of failing to strongarm Hamas into releasing some 100 hostages kidnapped in the attack that sparked the war.
Qatar, together with the United States and Egypt, has been mediating between Israel and Hamas.
Bitterly opposed to political Islam, Messrs. Bin Zayed and Netanyahu see Hamas as an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar as one of the movement’s main sponsors.
Mr. Woodward said Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, like the UAE, were initially happy to see Israel crush Hamas.
Arab rulers’ enthusiasm for the war has since waned as public anger at the death toll and devastation mounted in the Middle East and beyond.
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Credit: Hindustan Times
The UAE’s involvement in Gaza is part of a broader US-backed Emirati proposal for the administration of Gaza if and when a ceasefire is achieved. The proposal was crafted with input from Israel but not the Palestinians.
In response, senior officials of Hamas and its archrival, Al Fatah, the West Bank-based backbone of Mr. Abbas’ Authority, met in Cairo last week to discuss forming a committee to manage Gaza’s post-war governance.
The committee would be made up of independent Palestinian figures not aligned to a particular movement.
All of this may seem pie in the sky, with the prospects of a ceasefire seemingly dead in the water unless the Biden administration sees its waning days in the wake of this week’s US presidential election as an opportunity to crack down on Israel and force it to agree to a permanent ceasefire.
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Last week’s umpteenth round of indirect ceasefire talks failed, with Israel rejecting the Palestinians’ demand that a truce end the war and Hamas refusing to agree to a temporary halt in the fighting.
The absence of a ceasefire has not stopped Messrs. Bin Zayed and Netanyahu from putting in place the building blocks for a post-war Gaza in their mould.
It also did not prevent the UAE, which established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020, from facilitating the overland shipping of goods bound for Israel from Emirati ports through Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
The overland route enabled Israel-related shipping in the Red Sea to evade the risk of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The rebels have targeted shipping in support of Hamas and the Palestinians.
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Source: Instagram
In August, the UAE’s state-run news agency reported the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Gaza City municipality, allowing the Gulf state to restore water wells and reservoirs in the north of the Strip.
The agency reported the initiative days before Israel laid siege to parts of northern Gaza, including Jabalia, where it claimed that Hamas had regrouped after Israeli troops withdrew from the area.
At the time, Gaza City’s Hamas-appointed mayor, Yahya al-Sarraj, said he hoped there would be more projects. The siege has dashed Mr. Al-Sarraj’s hope for now.
Earlier, in what the UAE called Operation ‘Chivalrous Knight,’ the Gulf state repaired wells and water tanks in the devastated city of Khan Younis.
In addition, the UAE has prepositioned in El-Arish in the Sinai a floating hospital, a warehouse for humanitarian aid supplies, and desalination facilities capable of pumping enough water into Gaza to service 600,000 people once the Rafah border crossing reopens.
The crossing has been closed since Israel seized control of the Palestinian side of the border with Egypt in May.
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The Emirates Red Crescent (ERC) and other Emirati NGOs enjoyed preferential access to Gaza, where the UAE operated a field hospital and shelters for displaced Palestinians before the crossing’s closure.
The UAE’s post-war Gaza plan envisions a first phase in which “a temporary international mission that responds to the humanitarian crisis, establishes law and order, lays the groundwork for governance, and paves the way to reuniting Gaza and the occupied West Bank under a single, legitimate Palestinian Authority,” according to UAE assistant minister for political affairs and special envoy of the foreign ministry Lana Nusseibeh.
Ms. Nusseibeh’s definition of a “legitimate Palestinian Authority” is a body that has undergone “meaningful reforms and (is) led by a new prime minister who is empowered and independent.”
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Mohammed Dahlan
Lurking in the background is Mohammed Dahlan, the UAE’s preferred candidate to head a post-war Palestinian administration of Gaza that would be willing to work with Israel and an international force and is not controlled by either Hamas or Mr. Abbas’ Al-Fatah.
A Gaza-born controversial former Fatah security chief, Mr. Dahlan is close to Mr. Bin Zayed and well-connected in Israeli, US, and European political circles despite having been arrested in Israel several times.
Earlier this year, Mr. Dahlan rejected an Israeli request to head a post-war Gazan administration that would replace Hamas and operate under Israeli tutelage.
Since going into exile in Abu Dhabi in 2007, Mr. Dahlan has operated on the margins of Palestinian politics after Hamas defeated his Al-Fatah security force in bloody clashes in Gaza.
Nevertheless, he retains a political party and a network in the Strip. He has also rebuilt his bridges to Hamas and served as a funnel for Emirati funds for reconstruction in Gaza after past wars between Israel and Hamas.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.