Afsan Chowdhury, March 22, 2019
Bangladesh PM Sk. Hasina is expected to visit China in April. China is interested in welcoming Bangladesh as it has shown increasing interest in BRI. India isn’t fond of this suggestion though. However, the rise of China and its economic clout in the region has led to many new situations that has affected both strong and weak countries. The de facto demise of SAARC and the emergence of China as a powerful but non-traditional South Asian neighbor has created a new description of South Asia as well which is impacting on all.
General situation of weaker SA countries
Weak countries of South Asia have ‘defensive” foreign policies meant to ensure survival as more powerful countries play their strategic games. One to one relationship is even weaker than it was before. They are subjected to two neighbors- two forces syndrome.
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This translates into a Stronger neighbour(s) vs host/weak country relationship. b. Impact of bi-lateral relationship between the two stronger powers on the weak countries. A good example of this is the effect of Indo-China relations on Bangladesh with which both have separate and dual impact relationship.
Vulnerability of the weaker countries are not only caused by powerful neighbours but their own lack of capacity in risk assessment and asymmetric negotiations. The rise of multiple lobbies internally particularly business lobbies have made construction of foreign policies even more complex.
Rise of tri-laterlism
Since 1971, which saw the peak of bi-lateralism and multi-lateralism we see their decline. Agencies promoting them are rather toothless including the UN making the world both globally and regionally multi-polar. From 2008 onwards, as the West declined, China has risen making tri-laterality inevitable. Thus the regional relationship equation would look like the following:
- Bangladesh X India. B. BD X China. C. Indo-China X BD
This Triangle can be noticed in relation to other south Asian countries as well.
These are the triangle equations:
* Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka = India-China, all have the same equation.
* Pakistan = China – West has a different one with India as hostile but the Sino-Indo factor is common.
* India = China – US is different as its relationship with China influences its linkages with the rest of South Asia.
For 5 of the old SAARC countries, the equation is the same while for Pakistan its different. India and China are closest to being bi-lateral and its their relationship that impacts on the rest of the other countries.
Post SAARC issues
Perception of China has become focal with the demise of SAARC. In general, its noted that:
- Region/Multi-lateralism/ SAARC equations have eclipsed.
- China is a new South Asian neighbour, contiguous to 4, ocean rim contiguity with the rest.
- Neither India nor China perceived as “empathetic” neighbor in SA.
- Weaker countries are trying to balance India with China as it face a tri-lateral power strategy equation.
Bangladesh issues with India and China
Bangladesh has several issues with India including problems relating to water sharing, border trade, immigrants, sanctuary to North East insurgents etc With China, the Rohingya factor has created anti-China opinion though Bangladesh has begun to overlook it given the high trade volume and loans from China. Plus, proximity to China creates opportunity to balance relations with India.
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But China is not perceived as close to the general public but intimate with the ruling class only. During the 2019 elections, Indian media was very vocal about the linkages China had established with the powerful business community in Bangladesh, sometimes by-passing the bureaucracy.
Meanwhile PM Sk. Hasina has decided to sign on BRI much to India’s chagrin and even asked India to consider joining in. With whatever little space is available, weaker countries are trying to take advantage of this “triangle.”
Multiple linkages, limited realities
India is socially more closer to Bangladesh with multi-sectoral and class linkages but with China its largely with the ruling class sectors. India has informal linkages with Bangladeshi people but very few exist with China. While India needs transit to its North-East, denial of insurgent sanctuary and some role in local politics particularly concerning the Hindu minorities, China has no such aspiration. Its links are more with the Bangladesh business and army, its major arms supplier.
Threats from both India and China exists with fear that India may send alleged “Bangladeshis” from Assam and China may keep backing Myanmar as it refuses to resolve the Rohingya issue. But Bangladesh doesn’t have a positive record about taking advantage of such moves and lost the first rounds of post SAARC “tri- literalism”. It reacts rather than anticipates reducing the “dividends” of power balancing.
Bangladesh has not yet presented a strategy to deal with its tri-laterality yet but it seems to be learning. A lot depends on the links between China and India which will determine the future of the region. China is stronger than India already and as military options don’t matter, trade relations between the two will influence how the weaker south Asian countries can try to interact with the new Triangle.